Generated 2026-08-31 by scripts/validate.ts. Reads data/scores/index.json (produced by
scripts/score-all.ts) and each curated contract's expected.category field
(data/curated/*.json); does not itself run any classification.
This report checks two things, both against the curated contract set only (the live DreamDEX track has no category label and is excluded from every table below):
- Category median ordering — do median scores rise in the order the ACDC taxonomy
predicts (
market_data ≤ statistical ≤ public < institutional < individual)? - Spearman rank correlation — across all scored curated contracts, does a contract's score rank track its category's expected rank?
Neither check is proof that LevelField's scores predict real-world insider activity. The
reference classifications behind the scored contracts are single-run by design — one
classification per contract, not a majority vote across independent runs (that only happens
for live/ad-hoc contracts via voteDimension, see packages/scoring/src/vote.ts) — so a
single misjudged dimension moves a contract's score with no averaging to catch it. The
category labels themselves are also single-run, hand-assigned judgment calls, not an
independent ground truth. What this report actually supports is a narrower claim:
LevelField's deterministic scoring engine reproduces, from category-blind per-dimension
levels, an ordering consistent with the taxonomy ACDC validated against 435,000+ settled
Polymarket markets (data/anchors/anchors.yaml). It is evidence of internal consistency
with that taxonomy, not external validation of predictive power, and the sample size (currently
16 scored curated contracts) is far too small to support a statistical claim
on its own.
16/16 curated contracts are scored. Contracts below are missing a
data/classifications/{marketId}.json reference classification and were skipped by
score-all.ts; they are excluded from every table below except the last.
- (none — every curated contract has a classification)
| category | n scored | median score |
|---|---|---|
| market_data | 1 | 3 |
| statistical | 1 | 19 |
| public | 2 | 23.5 |
| institutional | 8 | 60 |
| individual | 4 | 95 |
| adjacent pair | median A | median B | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| market_data <= statistical | 3 | 19 | PASS |
| statistical <= public | 19 | 23.5 | PASS |
| public < institutional | 23.5 | 60 | PASS |
| institutional < individual | 60 | 95 | PASS |
rho = 0.930, n = 16.
Computed as the Pearson correlation of tie-aware ranks (average rank within ties) between
each contract's overallScore and its category's position in the ACDC order
(market_data=1 … individual=5). Ties are expected and handled explicitly: multiple contracts
can share a category (e.g. institutional).
| marketId | category | score | circuit breaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| curated-celebrity-breakup | individual | 95 | CB-1 |
| curated-ceo-resignation | individual | 80 | CB-1 |
| curated-injection-test | individual | 95 | CB-1 |
| curated-presidential-pardon | individual | 95 | CB-1 |
| marketId | category | score | band | circuit breaker | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| curated-award-show | institutional | 45 | moderate | — | scored |
| curated-bill-passage | institutional | 73 | elevated | — | scored |
| curated-btc-120k | market_data | 3 | low | — | scored |
| curated-celebrity-breakup | individual | 95 | high | CB-1 | scored |
| curated-ceo-resignation | individual | 80 | high | CB-1 | scored |
| curated-company-layoffs | institutional | 65 | elevated | — | scored |
| curated-court-ruling | institutional | 54 | elevated | — | scored |
| curated-cpi-above-3 | statistical | 19 | low | — | scored |
| curated-earnings-beat | institutional | 55 | elevated | — | scored |
| curated-election-winner | public | 21 | low | — | scored |
| curated-fed-rate-cut | institutional | 49 | moderate | — | scored |
| curated-football-match | public | 26 | moderate | — | scored |
| curated-injection-test | individual | 95 | high | CB-1 | scored |
| curated-military-strike | institutional | 78 | high | — | scored |
| curated-presidential-pardon | individual | 95 | high | CB-1 | scored |
| curated-protocol-upgrade | institutional | 68 | elevated | — | scored |