redditData.csv

stock mentioned,date,score,id,url,comms_num,body
DCA,1730904955.0,738,1gl0cru,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1gl0cru,180,"Been in $TSLA leaps since July. Decided to open, and DCA 11/29 $270 calls after $TSLA red for 6 days straight after the earning. Closed the 11/29 calls. Hold the leaps for now. "
MAG,1730912873.0,247,1gl3fa6,https://i.redd.it/kdvh3rfncbzd1.jpeg,21,Posting history positions below. Have only been involved with MAG 7 stocks.  
TSLA,1730909497.0,235,1gl2362,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1gl2362,51,"I placed $15,000 on 3:1 Kamala Harris Bets and then bought 50K OTM TSLA for Mid to Late Nov. $5K downside for 200K upside?
I'll take it"
QQQ,1730915177.0,102,1gl4c3s,https://i.redd.it/uromcv5ijbzd1.jpeg,58,"The recovery begins now, all I can do is trade 0DTE QQQ options and pray"
DAL,1730938397.0,22,1glde14,https://i.redd.it/fh3i6trjgdzd1.jpeg,5,"Made bullish airline play 2 months ago and held into election. Bet paid off and woke up to 40k gain, call me greedy but I’m still holding right now. Have high conviction but after 6x ing my initial basis on DAL wondering if I should sell or double down?"
CEO,1730910245.0,31,1gl2dp1,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gl2dp1/followup_post_on_earnings_day_ionq_set_for_a/,20,"**TL;DR:** Still long $IONQ on earnings day and not planning to sell anytime soon. Nothing in this post is financial advice, as I consistently lose money.  
  
**Ticker:** $IONQ  
**Industry:** Computer Hardware  
**Current Price:** $16.35

A month ago, I [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1g3rx6h/ionq_will_experience_a_massive_rally_and_has/) about IonQ, and since then, the stock has rallied from $10 to $16. Today, the company is holding its earnings call after hours, and I expect a positive reaction in the stock price, followed by consolidation before a potential higher move later this year. Coined as the Nickelback of DD, I made a few nickels on this trade.

I won’t dive into the tech behind quantum or why it’s game-changing, but from an investment perspective, the time to position is now (though ideally, it was 6 months ago). I believe FOMO is about to kick in.

All the technical slides and key info are publicly available on IonQ’s investor website, PowerPoints, corporate presentations, and interviews with management over the years.

https://preview.redd.it/6lj4rzyh0bzd1.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=895a8e6b55df96f34886886d734f8659b9472f57

# Sources I recommend:

* Shawn Kwon: A Korean YouTuber who traveled to the States to [interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YldqcQ35NlQ) IonQ’s management. He recently posted an insightful [interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OezQl80rloU) with them.
* Peter Chapman: IonQ’s CEO has had some interviews that are really hyping me up. In a [recent](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSVRPDrI8aI) one, he discusses how quantum is gaining commercial traction, especially due to having the right product at the right time, solving AI's growing energy needs.
* Forbes Interview on Quantum AI: Forbes recently [covered](https://www.forbes.com/sites/torconstantino/2024/10/02/is-quantum-computing-an-unlikely-answer-to-ais-looming-energy-crisis/) the role of quantum AI in addressing AI's energy demands, with IonQ revealing that they're launching a quantum-AI chip prototype in the coming months aimed at reducing power consumption.
* IonQ's Technical Roadmap: IonQ is ahead by 1 year on its ambitious [roadmap](https://ionq.com/resources/ionq-technology-and-performance-updates-milestones-commercial-advantage?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Q2-2024-webinar&utm_content=webinar&utm_term=45474) and consistently overdelivers, which gives me even more confidence in their future progress.

# Revenue Growth and Business Progress

After all, this is what we’re all here for. IonQ has consistently grown its revenue quarter over quarter. I heard Chapman mention that Q3 and Q4 are expected to be their strongest quarters, so I’m expecting a double beat today as well.

https://preview.redd.it/5wcagdfyxazd1.png?width=1979&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb8b94b8151b001a4926163c7c79e7b1d6f5ea55

This is their roadmap based on the qubits they plan to achieve. They’ve mentioned that they expect to gain a commercial advantage starting in 2026, but after today, good results could lead to forward pricing.

Qubits, like bits in classical computers, determine the computational power of quantum computers. In quantum computing, qubits scale exponentially in potential, as each additional qubit doubles the system's computational capacity. This is because a quantum system with multiple qubits can represent a superposition of all possible combinations of the qubit states, making quantum systems exponentially more powerful with each added qubit.

Bottom line: For a more powerful system, revenue is expected to scale exponentially as well, unlocking more applications that were previously unattainable.

https://preview.redd.it/blkjixeayazd1.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fcc97293e73bded17a2447ba82232142133eca0

Just two days ago, their latest [system](https://status.ionq.co/), **Forte**, became accessible on their cloud. This will likely drive more revenue, as anyone can now test their systems through IonQ’s cloud or other major cloud providers.

https://preview.redd.it/jrla5dymzazd1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d75c3e90390ded079954b4eb76be0ba50484289

With hyperscalers now planning to literally build nuclear reactors to power their data centers, I believe this is the perfect moment to introduce a new kind of computing product to the market. All made in the USA.

# Business Applications

I’ve heard a lot of people say that applications are at least 10 years away, and value creation will take 10-15 years. But I disagree with that perspective.

This is their landing page on quantum [applications](https://ionq.com/applications-services), and it looks solid. They’re focusing on areas that Nvidia is also targeting right now: digital twins, hybrid computing, and machine learning. Many of their staff come from top companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Dell.

https://preview.redd.it/asslamcuuazd1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18728c7dbfa500838c003f7e6fe1ec449d02abe

Recently, they’ve posted some interesting job openings: one for **Quantum AI** and the other for **Quantum Applications Chemistry**, both for scientist positions.

https://preview.redd.it/plbtkkamtazd1.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=78a67ea32c71e9e122de2f29c3ad126ccba93f78

https://preview.redd.it/syiuz5ertazd1.png?width=901&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b26d7531a88554803c333a0f28f51fcfca52cf1

It seems like they’re ready to develop apps for customers right away. As mentioned in the previous post, **today** they will showcase their first application, presumably focused on the healthcare industry. Personally, I think it will be related to pharma, especially since they’ve partnered with Quantum Basel in Switzerland to provide quantum access to nearby organizations.

The good thing is that after today, investors will immediately know whether this showcased app is something of value or not. We’ll find out if it’s commercially viable and applicable to the industry or just a prototype far from commercialization. Either way, it's better to clarify this quickly.

# Options Chain

I’m sharing this to highlight that institutions are taking an interest, not to promote options gambling. In recent months, IonQ’s chain has shifted from being sh\*tty to balanced. This is the chain for the 2026 LEAPS. The OTM $35 strikes have attracted significant attention over the past few weeks, going from no open interest to 3k contracts for a $3B company since late summer.

https://preview.redd.it/ln9ryu8duazd1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0da88dfcb6c3b7d26615e06abf5dc9d97c59973

# Institutional and Government Interest

In a recent interview on [CNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78JiA4ealks), Amy Raslin discussed why her fund went long on IonQ. This decision came after the stock rallied from $10 to $14 just a week ago.

Additionally, Congressman Glenn Ivey [spoke](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E27cYheKQHE) with Bloomberg and Peter Chapman about the growing support for IonQ.

# Competitors

For those saying that Dell or Microsoft are leading the way in quantum hardware, they don’t know what they’re talking about.

IonQ has the highest gate fidelity and error correction in the industry, along with the largest contracts from government institutions like ARLIS. The White House has even highlighted IonQ’s efforts to scale up their manufacturing facility in Bothell as part of their ""[Investing in America](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Washington-IIA-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf)"" agenda.

https://preview.redd.it/zhb8fjh7wazd1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd8a2eff6f5f04780723c99178ebc67d3ba404d0

# Bear Thesis

The bear thesis, largely pushed by day traders these days, focuses on technical analysis charts and claims that IonQ is overbought. A few years ago, Scorpion Capital published a short report, which was promptly [responded](https://ionq.com/posts/may-12-2022-ionq-founders-respond) to by the founders. Since then, no large short positions have emerged with a solid thesis against IonQ. It's a bet against the technology and IonQ's ability to commercialize it.

Bears often argue that IonQ is expensive based on valuation metrics and negative EPS. This argument makes no sense since they’re just starting out and went public before generating revenue.

But this is exactly the moment to make a decision in my opinion: do you believe IonQ will continue to execute its roadmap? If so, do you enter now, before the revenue starts to come in and the price catches up to projections, or do you wait until the stock is trading at higher multiples but miss the current $16 entry point?

I think that a lot of the bearish articles are laughable, especially when they keep repeating that quantum is ""10 years away."" Beyond timing and valuation, no other real bear arguments seem to make it into the debate.

# Founders

I’ve seen some people argue that the founders leaving IonQ to continue their research signals that the ship is sinking and is an obvious short sell. However, the reality is that the founders didn't leave because the company is failing; they transitioned to focus on their academic work after 20 years of research. The company is now in the hands of a commercial and specialized quantum team focused on scaling up the commercialization efforts.

It all started 20 years ago in a lab in Maryland, when an investor approached the founders after reading their paper in a journal. That investor proposed creating a company based on their groundbreaking technology, and here we are today.

# Conclusion

That said, the run on the stock is far from over. It will last for years, with investors cashing out at various price levels along the way. I have no idea what will be said during earnings or what we can expect from the application that is to be showcased, but I’m eagerly waiting to find out."
AMD,1730852270.0,249,1gklmy6,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gklmy6/for_the_first_time_ever_amd_outsells_intel_in_the/,21,"This victory means AMD has become the leader in the data center processor market, a significant achievement in a sector that Intel has dominated for years. AMD’s success reflects a shift in corporate preferences toward processors that offer high performance and energy efficiency, making AMD’s EPYC processors a more attractive option for businesses. 

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/for-the-first-time-ever-amd-outsells-intel-in-the-datacenter-space"
NVDA,1730919077.0,7,1gl5wim,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gl5wim/tsm_buy_the_dip_baby/,35,"Anyone else getting in on TSM?

Seems oversold, we are close to pre-earnings levels. Great profit margin around 40%, growing revenues, stable debt, and forward p/e around 21. Seems like a steal!

I get the onshoring trade, but lets get real, NVDA has been working with TSM for a very long time and their processes won't be replicated overnight. The standards for these chips are astronomical to get it right and NVDA has accelerated their manufacturing process with synopsys to speed up their progress.

I get the geopolitical risks as well, but isn't big boy T supposed to bring calm and comfort to the world (or so his supporters think).

Papa Elom also using NVDA chips and likely wants to protect the pipeline as TSM gradually creates new fabs in the USA. As long as they are making progress towards this goal, seems like a reasonable investment. Big boy and Elom wont let the pipeline get disrupted overnight, its too valuable and there would be huge repercussions for china I am sure.

Tarrifs likely to be paid by NVDA and hyperscalers but sure they will get a carve out and pay no tarrifs."
XPO,1730943401.0,2,1glf4c3,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1glf4c3/qxo_the_brad_jacobs_freight_train_youre_all/,1,"Regards,

Listen up - here’s the deal on QXO. I’m not here to give you some penny stock pitch that’s gonna end with you crying to your bank. I’m talking Brad Jacobs—a name that actually commands respect in business. He took XPO from being small fry to a $15 billion freight monster, and now he’s back for another round. But let’s be real, if you’re looking for some pump-and-dump garbage, this ain’t for you.

The Big Picture: Owning a $1 Trillion Industry
Jacobs doesn’t mess around. He’s here to take over the building products distribution market, which is a trillion-dollar industry begging for a savior to come in and shake it up. When he took on XPO, the logistics industry was a hot mess of inefficiency and disarray. Fast-forward a decade, and XPO is a name every freight guy knows. Now he’s got his sights set on QXO, and this isn’t for some pocket change. This is a takeover.

$5 Billion Cash Stash and No Debt—No Chains Holding QXO Back
Unlike all those broke startups praying for investor mercy, QXO has $5 billion in cold, hard cash with zero debt. That’s right—no loans, no strings, no BS holding them back. They’re not out here begging for quarters; they’re ready to buy, expand, and roll out a carpet of domination.

Why does that matter? Because QXO doesn’t need to play games. They’re stacked with cash, ready to make moves that’ll put smaller players in the rearview. Jacobs isn’t here to gamble; he’s here to grab the industry by the throat, and he’s got the war chest to do it.

The Kushner Factor – Like It or Not
Here’s something juicy for the conspiracy theorists: Jared Kushner is on the board. Yeah, some of you might hate him, but this guy’s got connections up to his eyeballs. And those connections come with cash. His firm, Affinity Partners, dropped a fat $150 million into QXO. Don’t like it? Too bad. Kushner’s network isn’t here to make friends; it’s here to get things done, open doors, and give QXO a reach into corners you don’t even know exist.

When you’re trying to flip a trillion-dollar market on its head, having someone with global influence doesn’t hurt. Kushner might not be your buddy, but trust me, he’s good for business.

Jacobs’ Legacy: The Guy Knows How to Print Money
Listen up, because this isn’t some snake oil show. Jacobs’ track record is rock solid. This guy has pulled off business miracles before, and he doesn’t deal in hype—he deals in results. When he took on XPO, he didn’t just win; he redefined the game. XPO is now a giant, and Jacobs is ready to do the same with QXO.

So, if you’re waiting for him to stumble, keep waiting. Jacobs’ whole career has been about taking scrappy underdogs and turning them into business beasts. Now he’s taking everything he knows and throwing it into QXO. If you can’t see the potential, maybe stick to meme stocks.

The Stock Split Debacle – Here’s What Actually Happened
Ah, the infamous 1-for-8 reverse split. Yeah, that was a bit of a ride, but let me break it down for you: this wasn’t some sneaky “oh no, we’re failing” move. This was QXO setting itself up to be taken seriously by institutional investors. The split pushed the price up, making QXO look less like a penny stock and more like a heavyweight. But some of you lost your minds when it hit $235 on June 10th and the market cap skyrocketed to $90 billion. Did QXO magically become worth as much as Amazon overnight? No, don’t be dumb.

Here’s what went down: because of the share structure change, there were way fewer shares out there for the taking. The supply got tighter than a drum, so naturally, the price shot up, and platforms didn’t adjust fast enough. It was a hiccup. The market cap was basically a mirage, not a problem with the company. If you panicked, that’s on you, not QXO.

Since then, it’s settled down to a more reasonable $15.25 as of today. This isn’t volatility due to bad business. It’s due to mechanics. QXO still has the same cash pile, no debt, and Jacobs at the helm. If you got weak knees over a glitch in the system, you’re not cut out for this play.

QXO’s Under the Radar – and Underpriced
Here’s the deal: the market’s napping on QXO. Despite the players on board, this stock is still low-key. People are too busy betting on whatever’s hyped that day. But if you can look past the nonsense, this is one of the most undervalued plays you’ll find. Don’t believe me? Look at Trump’s election. QXO didn’t budge. No hype, no pump—it’s steady because it’s built for the long haul.

This isn’t a meme stock. It’s not chasing clout. It’s positioning for a colossal win that takes years, not days. If you don’t have the patience, keep walking.

For the Diamond Hands Only
If you’re here for a 3-day flip, leave now. QXO isn’t for the paper-handed. This is a stock for people who see the big picture, who understand that building value takes time. Brad Jacobs has done it before, and he’s doing it again. You want in? Then you’re here for the ride, no whining allowed. In a few years, QXO will be leading in building products, and the weak hands will be nowhere to be found.

So keep chasing those meme plays if that’s your thing, but for the real players—the ones who see Jacobs’ vision—QXO is one of the few long-term buys that could actually make you rich.

Pos - 2200 shares at $13.59 DCA 

*Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research."
M,1730942718.0,2,1glew3j,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1glew3j/easy_peasy_lemon_squeezy_add_some_ugga_to_your/,3,"https://preview.redd.it/dwne4uuktdzd1.jpg?width=984&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=789de5f26de3ddf6420580e05433c8bdf6fb8ce1

  
  
\*\*\* Disclaimer this is educational purposes only and not financial or trading advice! Trade at your own risks.\*\*\*  
  
**TL;DR**  
Lemonade is primed for a short squeeze if the price crosses > $36. A lazy short thesis added 30.88% short float (10/15) and an 11.65 short ratio. The Trump win + passive risk on allocations to broader sector indices (IWM, etc.) are short-term tailwinds for a company growing \~25% QoQ that's AI-driven and is releasing car insurance as all systems go with $977 M in short-term assets!

To move price >$36 and kick off a squeeze, there needs to be roughly 1.5 in bid volume tomorrow through a gamma squeeze, the stock, or both.

Ticker: $LMND  
Price At Close (7 pm 11/6/24): \~$29.10  
Escape Velocity For Squeeze: >$36  
Mkt Cap At Close: $2.09 B  
Squeeze Price Target: > $110 (price hit $165 in 2021)  
Downside Risk: 33% in the underlying

**Opportunity**

*Fundamentals & Narrative*  
The company has 977 M in cash on its balance sheet. They're growing in force premium 24% QoQ and expect to accelerate as inflation cools and they are RELEASING A NEW PRODUCT $LMND is all systems go for releasing car insurance!

*Catalyst:* Investor day is on the 19th, AND $LMND is all systems that go for releasing car insurance; they crushed earnings, and CAT loss is behind them because of their AI; inflation has cooled, and it's time to grow! Management expects probability in the next 3 quarters. They beat their gross loss ratio, and things are getting exciting.

[https://youtu.be/0-w6QbzaswA?si=iyixl7ZGaNjhfvYt](https://youtu.be/0-w6QbzaswA?si=iyixl7ZGaNjhfvYt)

*Short Positioning*  
A lazy short thesis by Tiger Global and others extended too long without considering the fundamentals of this company and lumping them into the sector. The total short float is 30.88%  (10/15), with an 11.65 short ratio. Out of the 30.88% short ratio, the average price is likely below $20, according to historical graphs. With the previous 15-day volume, assuming that risk teams hedged this perfectly (lol) there's still not  
enough volume to cover the \~16.5 M share outstanding. Any price over $36 is primed for escape velocity.

Short Interest Over Time Here: [https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/LMND/short-interest/#:\~:text=Lemonade%20(LMND)%20Short%20Interest%20Ratio%20%26%20Short%20Volume&text=Lemonade%20(LMND)%20has%20a%20short,for%20trading%20by%20the%20public](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/LMND/short-interest/#:~:text=Lemonade%20(LMND)%20Short%20Interest%20Ratio%20%26%20Short%20Volume&text=Lemonade%20(LMND)%20has%20a%20short,for%20trading%20by%20the%20public)

*Technicals and Positioning*

As you can see on the chart, $35 is the next most significant resistance. If we break this it's off to the races.

https://preview.redd.it/f0hfnuo2sdzd1.png?width=1946&format=png&auto=webp&s=c24d9b463ca6ce94863edc7148428e92bf55ba69

The past three days have had \~37k volume in the first 15 minutes of opening. At today's price, that's \~$900k to defend and increase price above escape velocity when volume cools post 10:00 am, and market makers reprice options after volatility cools.

The net call vs. put option is \~6:1 as of the close, with 6400 total calls in open interest below $35.00. If price moves and holds above $37. A gamma squeeze is in play across the option chain, accounting for \~450k in total stock buy volume.

Watch if volume breaks and hold below $28 into noon. I'd use VWAP at rolling 2 SD bands as the indicator of choice.

*Outstanding Questions*  
How much are they shorting really? If you have a data source hmu. My DMs are open if you have access to this data.

I'd love to get access to a depth of market (DOM) and see the depth where sell pressure exists. My gut instinct tells me it's low because of the speed of this move but I'd like to have a life feed and watch the order book. Hmu if we can do a stream.

*Positions*  
I hold stock sub $20, LEAPS at $20 at Jan 16th 2026, and options at 30, 31, and 35 strikes in Nov 9th, 15th, 22nd, and 29th.

If you're interested dm me on reddit or x.

x: [https://x.com/GreenVibesOnly](https://x.com/GreenVibesOnly)

*Acknowldgements*  
Thank you Paper Bag Investor for all of the dop shit you've done for the community! Please Follow him on Twitter, support him on Patreon, and subscribe to his youtube channel

Youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/c/PaperBagInvestor?app=desktop](https://www.youtube.com/c/PaperBagInvestor?app=desktop)

x: [https://x.com/PaperBagInvest](https://x.com/PaperBagInvest)"
TTM,1730941307.0,2,1glef1a,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1glef1a/rogers_communications_inc_rci/,2,"Investment Thesis: Rogers meets relevant criteria set out by Benjamin Graham and proves to be undervalued when analyzed through the DCF model and in comparison to its peers. The company is beaten down due to their acquisition of Shaw and unpopularity due to the AI boom. This high dividend security with stable cash flows and commitment to providing value to shareholders leads the Canadian Telecommunications market and is an investment worth considering for dividend/value investors.
Purpose:
 - To test the underlying security against Benjamin Grahams criteria for the defensive investor.
 - Apply fundamentals to valuation techniques to determine an ""intrinsic value"" of the underlying security and determine a margin of safety. (DCF / P/E / BVPS / DDM)
______________________________________________________________
The Intelligent Investor Criteria
1. ""Adequate Size of the Enterprise"" (PASS 2023 Revenue - $14.57B)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes adequate size of an enterprise as an industrial entity with no less than $100M in revenue or a public utility with no less than $50M in revenue.
Using the average inflation rate of 3.51% from 1949 (when criteria was established) to present day these amounts can be adjusted to: no less than ~$1.325B in revenue or a public utility with no less than ~$662.5M in revenue.
Results: Rogers Communication reported revenue of $14.57B in fiscal year 2023 while averaging $11.31B in the previous 5 years.
Current Revenue TTM - $15.12B
Conclusion and Insight: Rogers Communication passes this test suggesting it has the size to needed to overcome future uncertainty. Benjamin Graham makes an important distinction between a large and small firms as historically it provided an indication of their ability to persevere through uncertain times. (larger firms have the advantage in accessibility to capital and at preferred rates)

2. ""A Sufficiently Strong Financial Position"" (FAIL 3/3)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes a sufficiently strong financial position as a current ratio of 2 (current assets / current liabilities) and long-term debt should not exceed working capital ( (current asset - current liabilities) / debt) and debt should not exceed twice the stock equity at book value(debt / total net assets)
Results (2023 YE): 
Current Ratio - 0.85 (FAIL) 
LTD to NWC - $31.57B to ($0.98B) (FAIL)
LTD to Book Value of Equity - $31.57B to $7.88B (FAIL)
Conclusion and Implication: Rogers Communication fails all three tests regarding financial strength.
A current ratio of less than one may suggest that Rogers is facing liquidity issues, that being they are unable to cover their current labilities with their current assets. A low current ratio may caution lenders and cause for premiums on future debts, increasing interest expense and eating away at profit. Further a low current ratio may suggest management is using working capital inefficiently. 
The size of LTD to NWC suggests that Rogers is incapable of paying off debts and the negative NWC suggests that LTD will continue to grow not reduce. These indicators should flag investors to ensure management has a debt strategy in the future that does not include the dilution of ownership.
The size of LTD to Book Value of Equity suggests that the entity is highly reliant on debt.

3. ""Earnings Stability and Growth"" (PASS 1/2 with note)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes earnings stability as a doubling of earning in the past 10 years and no more than two declines of 5% or more in the last 10 years. 
Results: 
Doubling of Net Income: In 2014 rogers reported net income of $53M while Net Income TTM is $1.11B (PASS)
Number of Declines over 5% in past 10 years - 3 Total (FAIL) See note below.
Conclusion and Insight: Rogers Communication passes the doubling of net income when using TTM net income, though using 2023 Net Income would fail. Rogers fails the number of declines showing 3 total declines over 5% in the past 10 years one of which includes the 2022-2023 decline.
NOTE: It is important to note that the 2022-2023 decline was primarily due to the higher finance costs associated with their acquisition of Shaw. As such this strategic acquisition was expected and does not specifically call for concern and this decline may be excluded in some analysis. A significant fall in net income indicates a significant change in the entities business model or strategy which would needs to be investigated further and be heavily supported through management. 

4. ""Dividend Record"" (PASS)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes his dividend record criteria as uninterrupted dividend payments for the past 20 years.
Results:
Rogers Communication has consistently paid a dividend for the past 20 years. (PASS) 
Current Dividend Yield - 3.88%
Conclusion and Insight : Rogers Communication passes this test and the current dividend yield is attractive.
These historic dividend payments show Rogers is sustainable in their commitment to returning value to shareholders through predictable cash flows and efficient management of cash. They may encounter difficulty in growth due to this commitment but the dividend suggests Rogers is in it's mature stage.

5. ""Moderate Price/Earnings Ratio"" (FAIL with note)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes a moderate price to earnings ratio as 15 times averaging earnings in the past 3 years.
Results: Rogers Communication currently trades at 17.9 times its 3-year average earnings
Conclusion: Rogers Communication fails this test.
A high P/E ratio suggests that an investor may be paying too high of a price for the given security. Regardless of how good an underlying securities fundamentals and future outlook may be, an investor should remain grounded and realistic in how those facts translate to price. The P/E cap of 15 that Benjamin Graham provides serves as a guideline to the pricing of an asset.
NOTE: In Rogers case it should be noted that excluding the 2022-2023 earnings, (the year which suffered significant downturn in net income due to the acquisition of Shaw) and using the previous 3-year earning average would result in a P/E of 14.90.

5. ""Moderate Price/Earnings Ratio"" (FAIL)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes a moderate price to earnings ratio as 15 times averaging earnings in the past 3 years.
Results: Rogers Communication currently trades at 17.9 times its 3-year average earnings
Conclusion: Rogers Communication fails this test.

6. ""Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets"" (FAIL)
Criteria: Benjamin Graham describes a moderate price to assets ratio as current price should not exceed 1.5 times the book value last reported.
Results: Rogers Communication currently trades at 2.5 times its book value last reported.
Conclusion: Rogers Communication fails this test.
While a price less than 1.5 times book value is ideal in Benjamin Grahams he does not that a lower P/E may justify going over this threshold. It should further be noted that a book value per share provides an idea of the assets you are purchasing, but of course you are not purchasing the assets but rather purchasing the policies and procedures set in place to use these assets to create more value. The book value may be most important when a company is no longer a going concern. (going out of business)
Valuation Methods
DCF Overall Assumptions:
Discount Rate: 7.56% (calculated using CAPM)
Growth Rate: 2% (Highly Conservative Estimate to Only Combat Inflation)
FCF: 1.24B (AVG 3 years *excluding 2022-2023 year)
Net Assets Excluded to provide conservative estimate
CAPM Assumptions:
RFR: 3.5% - CAD T-Bill
Market Rate: 10.20% - Average Market Return
Rogers Beta: 0.61
Results and Insight: The results using the given inputs generates an intrinsic value of $42.55/share. Rogers is currently trading at $36.58 suggesting a 16.32% upside potential.  
The DCF model discounts the future free cash flow to present value and distributes these cash flows to shareholders. Typically this method is used when the company has stable and predictable earnings which Rogers has demonstrated.
The choice to exclude the distribution of net assets and to provide a growth rate higher than inflation is to provide a conservative approach to this method. Sensitivity analysis was preformed only for more pessimistic cases which uncovered a per share price of $30.68 when applying 0% growth rate and all other factors held constant, and $29.58 when applying a 10% discount rate and all other factors held constant. This provides a potential downside risk of 20% in the most pessimistic case. 
Comparative Approach
P/E Ratio
As described above Rogers currently trades at 17.9 P/E. The industry average for Telecommunications is roughly 25. While both P/E ratios are considered over the 15 suggested by Benjamin Graham, the significant variation from Rogers to competitors may suggest the market is undervaluing Rogers in comparison to it's peers. Calculating Rogers price at the industry average gives a price of $52.25. 
Book Value approach
The Book Value per share currently sits at $14.56. This provides a general baseline for the lowest price and investor should accept for their share. It should further be noted that in reality, if assets were to be liquidated it is unlikely the investor would capture the full book value of the assets. regardless this approach provides insight into floor value per share. 
Dividend Discount Model
In my over simplified dividend discount model I have once again used the most conservative estimates, assuming no growth and rather treating the dividend as a perpetuity. Using my CAPM discount rate of 7.56% and the most recent annual dividend $1.46 the calculated share price is $19.31. Once again this model is oversimplified, harshly pessimistic, and prone to error. It does though provide an idea of expected earnings through dividend if the company were to maintain it's current rate, depreciate with inflation, and have no net assets to return to investors.
Risks
Liquidity Risk - Rogers must have a comprehensive strategy to handle it's debt obligations. Maintaining the level of debt reported at FY 2023 is not sustainable and will continue to eat into net income if not managed properly. 
(As of writing this article Rogers has retired $2.1B in debt, showing commitment to reduction of debt)
Competition - Rogers operates in a hyper-competitive environment with increasing pressure to reduce service costs and aggressive competitors seeking to capture market share. An investor should closely watch subscribers to service plans along with marketing expenditure and research/development trends to ensure Rogers remains competitive in the market.
Operations - In July 2022 Rogers experienced an network failure issue attributable to an operations deficiency. The entity has faced backlash regarding the issue but has put in measures to regain consumer trust.
Regulation / Litigation - Rogers operates within a highly regulated industry being Telecommunications in Canada. Rogers is highly susceptible to policy change and political pressures within the country. Further, Rogers may be exposed to litigation risks is measures are not taken to protect user data. Increased data privacy laws will force Rogers to comply. 
Technology - The rapid increase in technological advancements specifically 5G poses a risk that risk that Rogers services or operations may become obsolete or that the capital required to compete will become a burden. An investor should monitor Rogers dedication to innovation along with research and development to ensure Rogers does not lag behind in technological advancements.
Competitive Advantage
An Industry Leader - Rogers leads the way in 5G connectivity in Canada. Rogers has one of the largest internet services in Canada and is trusted nationwide as a reliable and affordable service provider. 
Licensing - Rogers currently owns rights to various broadcasts giving them the competitive advantage in promoting their company through their exclusive content. 
Strong Financials - Contrary to the analysis above I believe that Rogers is currently in a strong position financially. The history of positive free cash flows, the commitment to debt reduction, and the current revenue support the long term financial health of Rogers. 
Overall Analysis
Rogers is a proven company with a record of stable financial growth and commitment to returning value to shareholders. Although Rogers does not meet all criteria outlined by Benjamin Graham, the company offers a sound investment opportunity given the current price. As Rogers continues to lead the Canadian Telecommunications market and provide exceptional internet, cellular, and broadcasting services to Canadians investors should keep watch as the stable income through dividends at an attractive price may support an investment opportunity. 

"
TSLA,1730895440.0,17,1gkx5ty,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gkx5ty/tsla_how_to_price_calls_today_given_the_high/,33,"So our planet and efforts to combat climate change took a massive hit today... but - gotta find the silver lining - at least my TSLA calls are going to print. 

Since I left a lot of money on the table after earnings by having paper hands and selling right at open - and not pricing those calls well to boot - I want to avoid repeating the same mistake. Any advice on pricing the below correctly? (I still have paper hands, so might still sell at open... haha, some trading mistakes are not easy to fix.)

Stock price difference × delta is what I typically use, but that obviously doesn't account for the massive volatility spike today. Any advice on how much to add in for that? Long time lurker, first time poster - thank you in advance!!! 

Positions:
TSLA $270 12/20/24
TSLA $260 1/17/25
TSLA $265 1/17/25
TSLA $300 1/17/25"
SMCI,1730907209.0,9,1gl17ll,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gl17ll/loss_porn_dumb_strangle_didnt_work/,7,"SMCI - SHIT MONEY COMPUTER INTELLIGENCE

I am using the broker Moomoo for this

9k loss porn ... SMCI puts did not print as expected yielding a 9k loss.

https://preview.redd.it/4rz45ynsvazd1.png?width=2202&format=png&auto=webp&s=068ded1f2f87dfed571e0a61859d95d0687449e9"
ARB,1730906469.0,8,1gl0xkj,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gl0xkj/arbb_iot_astera_labs/,5,"Couple rockets that it seems like no one is talking about.

ALAB

I found out about ALABs a few weeks ago around 60\~. Fresh AI/chip company. They just had their earnings, BOOM. I feel like they're going to be on par with Palantir/NVIDIA level growth.

ARBB

ARB IOT does AI with IOT I think, which I personally see as a bit part of the future. They're already putting the internet in everything, next thing you know your smart oven will perfectly roast your duck. POPPING OFF RIGHT NOW

please let me know if yall know anything about these I'm just trying to put the community on"
NVDA,1730941644.0,0,1glej65,https://i.redd.it/0zpk5497qdzd1.jpeg,5,Why are $214-216 NVDA calls significantly cheaper than $217-218?
CVS,1730831863.0,124,1gkdtan,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gkdtan/my_next_dg_play_for_those_interested_cvs_is_trash/,99,"Seriously, who the fuck even goes to CVS for anything anymore? Garbage company. $WMT does everything $CVS does for cheaper (seems to be a theme, doesn't it?)

This turd has been flirting with the $52 level since they bombed earnings in May.

Last time CVS was at $52 level was 2013, 2019, and 2020. If this goes below $52, it will be a straight shot to $44 by Friday.

This is a pig and will be below $45 by Friday.

https://preview.redd.it/p5lleyxyn4zd1.png?width=2978&format=png&auto=webp&s=78687bdb05e25ce194e1333db0f3bd2829adef8a

"
MSTR,1730863337.0,19,1gkp327,https://i.redd.it/r0zwi3tc97zd1.jpeg,5,Mini MSTR thesis starting to play out. Have more in my retirement account. Wish I went heavier but it’s tough to do that with a microcap. 
SMCI,1730831504.0,78,1gkdnvf,https://i.redd.it/5urh0b4pm4zd1.jpeg,112,"The volume of calls is increasing. Until yesterday the volume of puts exceeded calls. Today that has been reversed, I don't know what to think... Until yesterday everyone was super bearish, but today I see more people bullish, at least for a rebound and then for it to continue falling. Also today there is no SMCI auditor, so technically they can say anything in their results release and go up, taking into account that the expected movement is +-27%. What do you think?"
PRE,1730827170.0,101,1gkbxex,https://i.redd.it/fprggr3s94zd1.jpeg,33,"Everyone on this sub has seen The Big Short; its practically a prerequisite to trading market derivatives (and losing lots of money doing it). I think its safe to say that everyone has that fantasy that they get in on the ground floor of a trend that no one else could have seen coming. So I'm here to offer my explanation and pitch for why CMBS $44 4/17 puts are going to print money in a matter of time
I think a lot of people are vaguely aware that there has been some trouble in the commercial real estate market since remote work took off during COVID, but I think few people are aware of just how bad the issue has stayed. Despite some return to office, absurd markdown rates have become Extremely common.
Now how does this tie into CMBS? Well - CMBS works exactly the way that mortgage backed securities did in 2008 - a tranche of mortgages is packaged together, and ideally, that CMBS becomes worth more over time as the loan is paid back. Herein lies the problem - when these buildings are being sold at pennies on the dollar, even up into the present day, this presents a serious distress problem. And herein lies in my evidence that we are on the cusp of an epic collapse in the CMBS market:


Office CMBS Delinquency Rate
This graph, sourced by Trepp and published by Wolf Street Yesterday (Nov. 4) is currently showing that there is an epic blowup happening in the Office CMBS delinquency rate. Mind you, this is PRE RECESSION. The S&P is up gambling numbers (~23%) this year, and the delinquency rate is still skyrocketing as of yesterday. If there is any impending weakness in the economy - or even pullback to normalcy after an insane year of bull run - this delinquency rate is likely to completely blow by historical volatility markers.

For the play - I have 18 contracts of 4/18 CMBS $44. The premiums are pretty low because the historical volatility is almost nonexistent, but I think given this evidence there is a chance that it could greatly surpass these markers - and be an extremely profitable play.

Is this by any means guaranteed? Absolutely not, the market could continue to rip ass into the sunset and the commercial real estate market pulls out with zero problems. But given the current trends, and the fact that the current bull market cannot last forever, I think this is a serious play with some potential for some serious upside. Plus, who doesn't want to be the one who called it?

Wolf street source: https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/04/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-9-4-highest-since-worst-months-after-the-financial-crisis/

Buildings still selling at discount example: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/nyregion/manhattan-office-building-auction.html"
EV,1730934450.0,0,1glbyak,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1glbyak/short_tesla/,76,"Tesla is almost worth 1 trillion dollars and has a P/E of 79 here's why you should short it:

**1. Results**

We all know the news but he wont come into office for another 3 months and who's to say he doesn't just ban electric vehicles all together. Remember when he said "", I could have said, ""drop to your knees and beg,"" and he would have done it..."" to Elon. 

**2. Tarriffs and EV Tax credits**

EV Tax credits are definitely going bye bye which is bullish for Tesla since now more companies are going to bleed money like crazy until you realize the only selling point of a Tesla is you get a 7500 dollar tax credit, now it will just be a 45k+ luxury vehicle for most people. 

**3. -40 BILLION DOLLARS**

With the new president all lawsuits on Elons 40 billion dollar payment is getting thrown out the window, Tesla will pay Elon Musk 40 billion dollars after a successful shareholder vote and with the new president taking control of the entire government. Who pays for the 40 billion dollars? Not china, shareholders do meaning the entire company is devalued by 40 billion dollars.

TLDR: Tesla is overpriced and people are overestimating how much the new president will help Tesla, honestly Tesla will most likely not benefit from this and Elons personal companies and his pockets will gain most of the benefits."
SIRI,1730805796.0,93,1gk4gj2,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gk4gj2/remember_remember_the_5th_of_november/,58,"SIRI has done that split-off with Liberty Media and Berkshire Hathaway just increased their stake to 33%. SiriusXM has more users than Spotify when including Pandora and is sitting rather undervalued ie. Warren Buffet takes advantage. And he’s picky. Something appears to be cooking. Acquisition target? Cause the ER wasn’t that good and he’s not really the yolo’ing kind is he?

Keep in mind the recent reverse split. You don’t want to buy those cause that’s the pennystock playbook. However, in rare cases prior to an acquisition it may be a term for the acquisition itself to take place.

Ex-date is today Nov 5 and I’ve heard something about FTD’s outstanding. Can anyone confirm?
I’m not saying it will go to the moon and not before a 30% drop. Maybe it’s too obvious to happen idk. Or maybe we’re supposed to think it’s too obvious to happen so we’re like “naah” and then when it happens we’re like “God damn it I knew it!”. 

Either way I see it as a stamp of approval and I started a small position Friday in the PM. I hope it’ll drop honestly. I’d like a larger position in this particular case. And Yesterday it did drop so I’ve added a little bit more.
Not easy to find a good management and Warren Buffet is known for his and Charlie Munger’s need to like a company’s management and the way they run the business.

EDIT: The 200MA on the 1hr chart or 50MA on the 4hr chart MAY provide support. Placed a little extra buy order at 25 if/when it closes the gap.

GOLD EDIT: My man just brought it to my attention that their new Sirius 360L and OEM radios transmit and receive on a decent bandwith. Perfect for telemetry, diagnostics, GPS - data that is valuable to insurance companies.
And they have a legal monopoly in satellite radio. THAT’s what Berkshire Hathaway sees coming guys!

[Maintained at Outperform with a $40/share by Barrington Research](https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20241104007623:0/)

[After Its Reverse Stock Split, Is SiriusXM Satellite Radio a Buy?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reverse-stock-split-siriusxm-satellite-154100152.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmRrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJTi3290W4fe_e_MrmJjxBJCraylAsodWVjitdyapgHy2VLnLr4jiDZgdBmqPbG3rJ-w3lHTT_O_s77nknuv4a6nhkYFIT_K3ISu03YG5uvTrhwa6FJP4hh-mvURjMSAdPZAuJuMFOr3zWGWM8_5DjVwSmRSmysxjfRRrD3sG_P2)

[“Sirius is a legal monopoly”](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/04/1-stock-split-stock-to-buy-in-november-2-to-avoid/)"
FOR,1730853538.0,8,1gkm2jl,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1gkm2jl,9,"I commented on someone's post last month telling them not to trade for a few days after a big gap up day, I didn't take my own advice, had a great day on 11/1 made  4k. Greed kicked in and I started fantasizing about a better life for my family, I'm 24M and before coming to america the most money I'd ever made in a year from a full time job was about 6k USD, FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. So making 4k in one day felt great (even tho 2k of of the 4k was recovering from a loss).

The greedy part: (  Monday 11/4) just one Trading day after  the gain I got greedy, started aiming for homeruns and disobeyed all my rules, no entry signals just swinging blind and lost about 6k, I continued into today and lost an additional 3k. 

The good part: Im confident I can recover because I've been back from worse, but I just hate the fact that the lifetime scarcity of money makes me act stupid once I start making money. 

"
SMCI,1730757128.0,94,1gjqdox,https://i.redd.it/jm8gs0ejhyyd1.jpeg,53,Can we rally on SMCI please?! lol it keeps going down down down and I want it to stop. Should I be worried orrr? 
FCF,1730719374.0,293,1gjbxiu,https://i.redd.it/qgtxn0u9dvyd1.jpeg,103,"Praise the lord regards as he shall return and stick it to you in the ass with your own short dated options. 

One of the most underrated yet important aspects of leading a company is them vision. 

Good for us there’s one man who has just dat and his name is Peter J Beck. 

He wants his company to become a multi generational one and has paved the way for it to happen. 

The following are the way and the next catalysts : 

- Winning a big contract, long overdue it’s been 6+ months without anything relevant 
- Seing a “hop” of Neutron booster meaning the booster going up and back down without exploding 
- Seing full Neutron vertical on them pad 
- Announcement of what the mega constellation will be 

This last point alone is a potential multi bagger. The space economy is a violent one and destroys cash and balance sheets at a rapid gaylocity. 

The only way to be FCF positive on the long run is not to launch, it’s to have a paying service ! A mega constellation selling subscriptions for the greatest number. 

A lot of companies can build a mega constellation, not many can build one AND send it to its target orbit : 

- Only SpaceX has achieved this prowess. 

- Blue Origin seems to be on its way ever since daddy Bezos left Amazon to 100% focus. 

- $RKLB is the next one to do just dat. 

Peter J Beck is a gem, brilliant passionate yet humble and focused engineer while you’re a regard who can barely read, who should you trust your money with ? 

Gay power to all of you. 

PT by end 2025 : $20 

Full position : 200x $12 Jan 2027 call options avg $2.6
"
IFF,1730812056.0,3,1gk68y1,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gk68y1/iff_will_tank_post_earnings_on_tuesday5_nov_2024/,8,"IFF stands for International Flavors & Fragrances Inc

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) is an American corporation that creates products across taste, texture, scent, nutrition, enzymes, cultures, soy proteins, and probiotics categories, which it markets globally. 

Main thesis:

5 years of consecutive declining net income

IFF has been paying dividends although it has negative net income

Weakness in the chemical sector in general - Sherwin Williams(SHW) and Celanese(CE) recent earnings fell below expectations. Celanese cut their dividend on 5 Nov 2024. It is important to note that IFF, SHW and CE are in different sub sectors of specialty chemical. 

Beauty products sector weakening - Estée Lauder tanked post earnings last week after withdrawing outlook, cutting dividend, lowered guidance and poor China outlook. 

"
NVDA,1730732622.0,108,1gjgd0i,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gjgd0i/beware_of_the_curse_of_the_dow_and_chasing_nvda/,32,"Clever selling and timing by the ceo of NVDA and the Citadel group to off load in front of the curse of the Dow 


""Over the past ten years, stocks that have been added to the Dow lost an average of 20% in the first year after inclusion. Some have done considerably worse.""

It's a phenomenon known as the 
"" Curse of the Dow ""

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t038-c008-s001-the-curse-of-the-dow.html"
ALL,1730754080.0,22,1gjp5fl,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gjp5fl/mstx_calls_when_heroes_are_made/,27,"**11/15 55C MSTX**

MSTX is leveraged MSTR. Calls are leveraged stocks (I think, idk what a call is actually). Combined, it means a one way ticket to lambo land. LITERALLY what's the worst that could happen on a one way ride to lambo land???

All signs are pointing to the bull run. ALL SIGNS. This is the single greatest indicator of a bull run we've ever had. It may be the last chance someone has to get out of gen z poverty.

To recap:

>Voldemort wins

>MSTR moons

>MSTX giga moons

>**you are here**

>MSTX calls create generational wealth for it's holders.

**THE FIRE RISES**"
CBS,1730764930.0,7,1gjtcju,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gjtcju/scoop_save_an_election_strategy/,10,"A lot of people have been trying to figure out what to buy in anticipation of election day tomorrow. Knowing that it's likely to be an election WEEK or longer - I think it might be better to keep cash on the sidelines (some have followed Buffett's lead on this) to wait for large dips across the board, to scoop up savings.

Cash deployment in the next month is critical.

Some sectors that have been blinking, possibly to be impacted by the next week regardless of who wins: banking, entertainment/media, and the mining/uranium industry.

BANKING

Many of these institutions are at either their COVID peak, their housing peak, or dot-com peak.

The only conversation in finance that has exponential growth is crypto, which both candidates have supported - Trump more so given his family has their own currency - and it's looking more like a crisis coming in Q2 2025, so a few banks will probably start showing weakness through the Fed meetings after the election.

ENTERTAINMENT/MEDIA

While many people recognize that DJT is a proxy for his election chances, and many are playing options expiring this week or through inauguration day, the volatility here might be too unpredictable to rely on.

But, DJT is suing Paramount (CBS News) on the surface because of the way they handled Harris' interview. SONY is suing CBS over undercutting them on Wheel of Fortune & Jeopardy. Comcast is considering selling off their news division. A consolidation & competition effort is emerging in this industry across all the AMPTP companies especially since many of them are tied up in AI.

MINING/URANIUM

Nuclear threats & big tech's use of uranium seems to be only on the rise.

Some winners & losers may be getting picked soon.

SUMMARY

These industries are poised to have big swings after the election and before inauguration, and few people are looking here yet. With more attention elsewhere on election betting or DJT options, these industries could see big dollars made for you fellow regards if you act fast, as things react in real time - rather than trying to outsmart everybody ahead of time."
CEO,1730690685.0,33,1gj53dk,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gj53dk/cliffs_puts/,61,"I work for cliffs on-site Middletown location. Everything seems extremely ambiguous and more so a cover up for lack of demand. CEO made 2 announcements in September within 2 days with polar opposite answers, first they were going to move away from (1.6 billion dollar project 25% of market cap) (DRI and EMF for clean environment). Because he didn’t want to front the money for something that would cost more to produce the same product. And then 2 days later the cost will actually be reduced and save them 450 million a year. It’s completely insane to have 2 statements that’s are this contradictory, without of knowing he said something wrong which I’m sure there was instantly a shareholder meeting with executives to revoke this statement right away and to continue to push Biden agenda for clean deal Biden passed for $6 Billion dollar grants for steelmakers. Although Lorenco saying “I don’t think it’s worth it to pony up other $1.1 billion” this is after 500 million $ grant. Both articles linked below with his statements. These articles were within 2 days of one another and cause mass panic at the plant. This was also followed by huge wide layoffs to Cliffs administrators and Subcontractors. The layoffs are still happening. This is not an isolated to my plant but to all Cliffs plants. We’re stacking steel and no one is buying.  I see for the foreseeable future see layoffs continuing until economy starts turning around.Also the head department bosses don’t care about contractor safety and completely neglect safety standards and OSHA Laws to push production and fail to oblige to practical maintenance standards. So the plant is constantly shutting down for that reason as well. Anyways articles linked below, also take a look at 10-Q statements if you care. 


 https://www.cleveland.com/business/2024/09/cleveland-cliffs-ceo-says-company-might-scrap-planned-environmental-upgrade-in-middletown.html?outputType=amp 

https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/652/cleveland-cliffs-reaffirms-commitment-to-middletown-works"
DD,1730640475.0,314,1gimtov,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gimtov/companies_that_you_know_people_are_loyal_too/,417,"I'll give 2:

  *Dominos* (DPZ): Is the pizza good? Fuck no. But it's cheap and will get u full. Broke people rely on that emergency pizza. Poor kids thank God they don't have to eat another shitty frozen dinner. Their menu items are improving too, faster than any other big pizza chain. 

  *Home Depot* (HD): There are an insane amount of Americans who gain a hobby of gardening/home improvement, and suddenly they find themselves in home depot multiple times a week. 

  It markets itself too, people who don't go to home depot have shitty grass. Alpha Dad's who can build a swingset post that shit on Facebook. Whenever I see a Lowe's I feel like I'm in the projects by comparison. 

  And real contractors/construction companies live a significant portion of their life in that store, those people memorize the aisles. They have an outstanding reputation too due to what Arthur Blank has done in terms of charity.

  Y'all got any? Sometimes word of mouth DD is the best."
GM,1730684259.0,19,1gj33k0,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gj33k0/help_me_understand_something_about_intel/,38,"Okay so I am obviously missing something - so easy on the pitchforks! I have seen a lot of posts about Intel and they all say its a bad idea because the company might go bankrupt and even if they are bailed out, shareholders will be wiped out.

INTC's current book value as of Sep 2024 is $23.10. This means that if the company CH11's and is liquidated \*right now\* (for the sake of simplicity, i am ignoring liquidity discounts/market discovery/market price fluctuations of assets etc.) shareholders will get 23.10 USD \*after\* settling all debts and liabilities. The stock price is currently $23.20 so its basically trading \*at\* book value. Worst case you lose 10 cents + time value of money on $23.10 while waiting for liquidation/bailout. So where are the ""share price can go to zero"" concerns coming from? Is it simply the concern that they will erode their book value to zero?

Edit: The GM example is not valid. Quick googling (please feel free to double check) shows the GM CH11 filing reported US$82.29 billion in assets and US$172.81 billion in debt. That is a book value of **negative $2.** Obv in that case shareholders will get 0."
MSTR,1730610343.0,358,1gifnh6,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gifnh6/mstr_a_ponzi_scheme/,506,"MSTR is probably the biggest overvalued stock in the US at the moment and I would expect the stock to drop by 50% in the coming month. Here is why:


- MSTR is trading at almost 250% premium of its bitcoin holding value meaning that when you buy MSTR, it’s equivalent to buy Bitcoin at 3.5x its value or $245k per XBT.
- MSTR has a 17.8% Bitcoin yield as its issuing new shares at 250% premium to buy Bitcoin at discount, while Bitcoin yield is much lower. This strategy would be attractive only if it was sustainable in the long run but as soon as MSTR drops, this yield will decrease or even go negative if MSTR trades at discount.
- MSTR announced this week that it will raise $42b to buy Bitcoin in the next 3 months, $21b via equity issuance and $21b via debt. The retail won’t be able to absorb such amount which will push MSTR significantly lower, as we have seen in similar case like AMC and other. Retail will be ruined once again. The additional debt will also levered MSTR massively which will become an issue when the stock/bitcoin drops as it might force MSTR to do emergency equity raise at discount, putting even more pressure on MSTR. https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-and-announces-42-billion-capital-plan_10-30-2024
- Chairman Michael Saylor knows that MSTR is overvalued, that’s why he is increasing the pace of its capital increase with 5 equity raises in the last 3 years with much more to come, I don’t think any other company has done that many.
- MSTR had accounting issues back in 2000 sending the short 90%+ lower
- All the brokers with a BUY rating on the stock have magically been picked by MSTR to do the $21b equity issuance. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/G8cJq1F32w

==> By misleading the retail community with its Bitcoin yield, retail prefers to buy MSTR rather than Bitcoin, pushing MSTR at a huge premium and allowing  MSTR to sell even more shares to the retail community, allowing to buy more Bitcoin, increasing its Bitcoin yield. This is exactly the definition of a Ponzi Scheme: 

“A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often promise to invest your money and generate high returns with little or no risk.”"
TSM,1730560665.0,1144,1ghyq7o,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghyq7o/why_i_think_tsmintc_will_outpace_nvdaamd_growth/,246,"Tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are spending billions of CapEx on AI. Lets just look at their last 2 quarters spending:

* **Amazon**: Increased CapEx from $60 billion in Q2 2024 to $70 billion in Q3 2024.
* **Google**: Increased CapEx from $44 billion to $49 billion in the same period.
* **Microsoft**: Increased CapEx from $44 billion to $49 billion.
* **Meta**: Increased CapEx from $29 billion to $31 billion.

However not all that CapEx is going to third party AI solutions like Nvidia/AMD. Each and every company listed above has or is developing it's own custom AI silicon.

Lets look how they are transitioning from 3rd party to In-House AI silicon:

**Amazon**: Developed AWS Inferentia and Tranium chips for AI processing (manufactured by TSM & INTC).

**Google**: Developed Tensor Processing Unite (TPU) and Axion chip for AI processing (manufactured by TSM).

**Microsoft**: Developed Azure Maia AI chip and Azure Cobalt for AI processing (manufactured by TSM & INTC).

**Meta**: Developed Meta trading and Inference Accelerator (MTIA) for AI processing (manufactured by TSM).

All those developments reduce dependence on external GPU suppliers, allow more customized/efficient AI processing and most importantly huge cost savings.

Just to understand the level of savings (and why would they invest huge R&D budget on this):

A **regular Nvidia H100 GPU**, cost approximately **$3,320** to manufacture from TSMC. However it is being sold at **$25,000 to $30,000** each!

That's almost 800%-900% profit margins that has to be paid by the companies above, when they opt not to choose In-House Silicon.

As more of the AI CapEx goes to custom silicon (will never be 100%, but expect that percentage only to grow larger over time, driven by cost savings)  TSMC and Intel foundries will benefit directly from this trend (both have EUV capabilities, INTC will mass produce 18A EUV chips next year, with Amazon as first client)

And this will position TSMC and INTC for substantial growth, because **the rate limiting factor for AI growth will be how much silicon can TSMC or INTC manufacture** for the entire world's AI demand.  
  




"
ASP,1730575056.0,228,1gi41yd,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gi41yd/bill_gates_terrapower_with_asp_isotopes/,116,"$ASPI These news took ASP Isotopes above 500 million market cap. I want your opinion and what you say about it all. Will Centrus Energy be able to stay relevant coming years when new technologies enter the scene? 

Term sheet say Terrapower will likely pay for the construction of a HALEU enrichment plant. HALEU is the fuel every small modular reactor needs to operate.

I'm guessing huge gains from nano nuclear, oklo, Nuscale etc gonna come ASPIs way. Small Modular Reactors are like cars and cars don't run without gasoline, SMRs don't run without #HALEU. Who's making the biggest bags of money? The people driving the cars or those who sell the gasoline?

They also got contracts for their enriched silicon-28 product which is researched to be the next material in semiconductors. Allowing for cooler and therefore faster chips enabling super intelligent AI and quantum computing.

Two undisclosed contracts with US leading semiconductor companies and in discussions with several others. Any clue on who it could be? I mean Bill Gates grabbing their HALEU, maybe Gates want some si28 as well for Microsoft?

With the current nuclear theme, this is set up deliciously. From $2.90 to $8 in a month and bears are still stubbornly resisting the bull horde.

Icing on the cake, the planned spinoff gives ASPI shareholders incentive to HODL & gobble. Spinoff is 1 for 1. Get an equal amount of QLE shares as you got ASPI for those who HODL on record date yet to be determined.

Terrapower press release: [https://www.terrapower.com/terraPower-announces-strategic-agreement](https://www.terrapower.com/terraPower-announces-strategic-agreement)

45 things to consider with $ASPI. Cheers to u/pennycheck at X for this delicious slice of ASPIe

1. Proprietary Aerodynamic Separation Process (ASP) and Quantum Enrichment technologies for isotope enrichment.
2. Contracts for Carbon-14, Molybdenum-100, and Silicon-28 production, with potential revenues of $12-30 million in 2024.
3. Entering the High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) market, with estimated demand over 600 MT by 2035.
4. Quantum Enrichment method for uranium expected to be more cost-effective and scalable than competitors' technologies.
5. Signed MOUs with two US-based Small Modular Reactor (SMR) companies to supply HALEU.
6. Received interest from potential customers totaling over $30 billion of HALEU demand at recent market prices.
7. Technology allows for HALEU production in a single step, potentially more efficient than competitors.
8. Expects to produce commercial quantities of HALEU by 2027, potentially satisfying all anticipated demand from advanced reactors in development.
9. Market capitalization significantly lower than main competitors despite potentially superior technology.
10. Strong management team with extensive experience in isotope enrichment and finance.
11. 100% employee retention, helping maintain trade secrets and technological advantages.
12. Exploring enrichment of depleted uranium tails, potentially leading to higher margins and lower HALEU prices.
13. Building facilities in Iceland to capitalize on lower electricity costs, potentially improving profitability.
14. Joint venture with PET Labs, allowing entry into the radioisotope market for nuclear medicine.
15. Technology is modular and scalable, allowing for rapid capacity expansion.
16. Significant insider ownership, with management continuing to buy shares.
17. Targeting multiple markets beyond HALEU, including medical isotopes, silicon for quantum computing, and other industrial applications.
18. Favorable market environment due to global push for nuclear energy, including pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 at COP28.
19. Technology could potentially address the HALEU supply bottleneck currently delaying some SMR projects.
20. Potential ability to produce Weapons Grade Uranium (WGU) could lead to additional government contracts.
21. Isotope production extends beyond HALEU, with applications for semiconductors and AI companies.
22. Ytterbium plant commissioned 9 months ahead of schedule, demonstrating efficient execution.
23. Early completion of Ytterbium plant proves Quantum Enrichment technology, applicable to uranium enrichment for HALEU production.
24. Ability to recycle depleted uranium tails makes it attractive for governments wanting to avoid new uranium mining operations.
25. Diverse isotope portfolio makes it relevant to multiple industries and companies.
26. Major tech companies like Amazon and Google investing heavily in nuclear energy projects, likely increasing demand for HALEU fuel.
27. Amazon signed agreements to support development of nuclear energy projects, including new SMRs.
28. Google signed world's first corporate agreement to purchase nuclear energy from multiple SMRs.
29. Tech giants' involvement could accelerate SMR development and adoption, creating larger market for ASPI's HALEU production.
30. Tech companies cite need for reliable, carbon-free energy to power data centers and AI technologies.
31. US Department of Energy estimates significant job growth in the nuclear industry.
32. International Energy Agency's report supports long-term prospects for nuclear energy.
33. Growing corporate interest in nuclear energy could lead to increased investment in the sector.
34. Successfully enriched Ytterbium-176 using Quantum Enrichment technology.
35. Commissioning phase of Ytterbium-176 facility completed in 6 weeks instead of expected 3-6 months.
36. Expects to achieve 99.75% enrichment for Ytterbium-176 and offer it for commercial sale in 2025.
37. Plans to construct Nickel-64 and Lithium-6/7 Quantum Enrichment plants with production targeted for 2025.
38. Potentially the only Western supplier of commercial quantities of Ytterbium-176 and similar isotopes.
39. Quantum Enrichment process believed to be more efficient, scalable, and environmentally friendly than other technologies.
40. In discussions with potential customers for HALEU requirements valued at over $37 billion.
41. MOUs with two US-based SMR companies include potential capital investments into HALEU facilities.
42. Accelerating plans for Nickel-64 and Lithium-6/7 plants due to urgent demand from Western-based producers.
43. Positioning to meet emerging demand for Lithium-6 in nuclear fusion power plants.
44. Recruited Lt. Col. William Eden, MBE to lead nuclear strategy in the United Kingdom.
45. Bill Gates took the first slice of the pie. Bet there's many more wanting a seat at the table.
46. 24% shorted 10 million shares since $2.90-$8

I'm suspecting ASPI and Gates been discussing silicon-28 since it's now clear Terrapower aim to lock up their HALEU production for ten years. All makes sense to me. Lock up the HALEU to fuel SMRs and build datacentres with silicon-28 semiconductors. Aaaand they build SMRs to power their superior datacentres.

Microsoft enters the chip wars: https://www.forrester.com/blogs/welcome-to-the-chip-wars-microsoft/

They will spin off their Uranium business to Quantum Leap Energy. Those who got shares in ASPI will get equal amount of shares in the new company QLE. Plus ASPI will always get 10% of QLEs revenue.

The HALEU plant Bill Gates is paying for and is expected to be non dilutive to shareholders. He will also buy all the HALEU produced there for a ten year period. Gates want to be the global top dog in small modular reactors.

Financially their balance sheet have never been stronger with about $43 million dollar cash.

This is just my opinions and guesses, I'm not a financial advisor. I share information about the company for the community to discuss. So this is not investment advice to sell, buy or do anything speculative. ASPI is worth keeping on the watchlist in my opinion. I keep it in my portfolio, I like the stock so I own the stock. Do your due diligence."
NVDA,1730493054.0,1905,1ghf4n8,https://i.redd.it/9b789z5bocyd1.png,201,Just sold my Amazon calls for a another 10k been a good year thank you guys I got my start with an NVDA yolo because of this sub 🤣
RH,1730594293.0,9,1giawhp,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1giawhp/i_have_some_serious_put_action_on_sitm_reports/,12,"SITM is a fabless semi selling timing chips with a $4 billion market cap.  Trailing revenue is only $160 million and a profit of .26c is anticipated.   That leaves an eye popping trailing multiple of 170x earnings.  

$500 million net cash balance sheet.  Good there.   

I own the $170 Nov puts that now cost $14 each.  Very expensive.   

I can’t short because I use RH for my specs.   

SITM is absurdly overpriced.   But so was CVNA.   

Never done a straddle or strangle.   

Calls are so expensive because everyone knows it is overvalued.  

Option pro advice?"
NVDA,1730679784.0,0,1gj1lx4,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gj1lx4/nvda_x_xai/,6,"Curious for the general consensus going into trading of NVDA when markets open tonight. Here we have the chip leader possibly helping to fund Elon's XAl. Even if they don't contribute funding, they will likely receive the contract to help bring Grok 3.0 to life.

Whats interesting from an prez winner perspective is that Elon is going to have his ear so I could plausibly assume that either the tariffs won't be enacted, enacted as quickly, or enacted to such a strong degree as promised. The tech industry is not moving away from Al, so even at higher prices to the US - bad for tech companies, but not 'as' bad for NVDA?"
GDP,1730490044.0,1782,1ghdzcx,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghdzcx/europe_is_going_tits_up_or_the_greatest_bull/,995,"**Premise**

It's not news that Europe as a continent has been struggling to keep up with the US. Innovation is lacking, regulation is abundant, cheap ru$$ian gas is gone, Germany is committing suicide, Fr\*nce is full of fr\*nch and Southern Europe is just a retirement home at this point. Ah, and the UK has being doing horribly since Brexit and food shortages are still going on even if they don't make the news.

**The numbers**

Economically speaking, if you take the GDP of the EU, you'll see that it's almost half that of the US, or about two thirds if you believe the PPP figure (you shouldn't, nobody cares how many big macs you can afford in a day, it's useless). The PPP detachment from reality can easily be observed if you take any market you like and compare the sales volume. For example, taking the car market in 2023 you can see that 22 cars were sold in the EU per 1000, while 43 cars were sold per 1000 people in the US. Sure you could say ""muh EU's got trains"", but that's only true for Western Europe which is half the total population.

In addition to this, most EU countries are facing a pension crisis that's going to obliterate the budget for infrastructures in the near future. Either that, or we are going to let pensioners live in absolute poverty to keep up the welfare state.

**The meat**

What's interesting to notice is that the financial literacy of younger Europeans is incredibly higher than the one of their parents and grandparents. On the flip side, young Europeans are incredibly broke, because of the welfare state, the Ponzi-pension schemes, and other shit which is constantly extracting value from the economy and putting it into the already fat accounts of elderly people who are not spending anything, not investing in anything and just parking their money, stopping the economy as a result.

But, all things come to an end, even their lives. And all that money is gonna flow in the pockets of young people with access to the US stock market. These generations are gonna know that the State will never be able to pay a decent pension, so they'll either invest on their own or put all that wealth into private pension funds that, you guessed it, will just invest in the US stock market, 'cause no one would ever invest in shitty EU clones of successful US businesses.

I can see that this ball is starting to roll with the current generation of Europeans entering the job market. We are looking at at least two decades of European money just pouring into the US stock market from everywhere in the EU.

  
Here's to the biggest bull market and wealth transfer in the history of the World."
GRPN,1730559761.0,10,1ghyedq,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghyedq/grpn_maybe_things_arent_as_they_seem_at_first/,15,"**High short interest – potential for a short squeeze**  
Currently, 44.03% of Groupon’s float is shorted (9.26 million out of 39.5 million shares), indicating that the market expects a decline and that investor confidence in GRPN is low. But what if there’s a surprise?

**Q3 YoY traffic growth despite ongoing IT issues**  
Despite what appear to be persistent IT issues, Groupon’s traffic in Q3 has grown by approximately 2.9% YoY according to Similarweb (69.4 million in Q3/23 vs. 71.4 million in Q3/24). While this might not seem like a huge success at first glance, in the context of the company’s projected revenue decline of -10% to -5% YoY for Q3—and given that just a few quarters ago, Groupon was essentially headed toward a wall and almost certain death—this growth actually shows a trend reversal. The IT problems likely persist and may continue for some time due to the historically complex system, but the key takeaway is that if traffic is stabilizing or even growing slightly YoY, then management’s most optimistic outlook could be met, or possibly even exceeded.

**New frontend in the U.S. – better conversion rates likely**  
Groupon recently launched a new frontend that was initially tested on a small sample of users in the U.S., yielding positive conversion results. Now, it seems that the new frontend has been rolled out across the entire U.S., so it’s reasonable to anticipate improved conversions, which should translate to higher revenue.

I’m not expecting a massive breakthrough, but rather that management is successfully executing their projections to stabilize the company’s cash flow and reverse the long decline in traffic. With the current share price at $10.33 and an expected EBITDA of $60–80 million, the **EBITDA multiple is just 5.1–6.8**. If their outlook is met on the high end or slightly exceeded, and if they project a 5-10% revenue growth for next year, then the current share price is very attractive. Within a reasonable timeframe of 1–2 years, there could be significant revaluation, with the **EBITDA multiple potentially expanding to 10–15x, coupled with organic EBITDA growth**. In addition, there’s a short-term speculative opportunity: a positive outlook could create pressure on short sellers to close positions, potentially driving the stock up in the short term.

**Conclusion and summary:**  
With high short interest, traffic growth despite the expected decline, and a new, likely better-converting website in the U.S. (specifically in the Local segment, which is the company’s core business), Groupon’s situation may be far more optimistic than the market expects. Positive results could trigger a short squeeze in the short term, pushing the stock significantly higher.

What do you think? Thanks for your insights!

PS: The next earnings call is this Monday, November 4th, after market close."
DOW,1730487711.0,111,1ghd3ko,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghd3ko/election_day_dow_bets/,246,"
In previous elections I've had a pretty good guess what happens the day after. 

I'm not asking about long term ramifications, I'm asking what happens on Wednesday. 

I remember when Obama won, the DOW average went up like 2000 points.  I was kicking myself for not having any positions that day. 

So, leaving your political baggage behind and from a strictly objective standpoint, what are your bets, and why? 

I'll set up a few comments below as headings. 
"
X,1730399879.0,8585,1gglo21,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gglo21/intel_will_skyrocket_in_a_few_hours_heres_why/,1337,"Intel reports its earnings today after the bell, and I'm confident they'll beat expectations. Intel's CEO, Patrick P. Gelsinger, has been dropping a lotta bible quotes on his X account recently:

https://preview.redd.it/rpyl0yt9v4yd1.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=39fa6cd2dc6edb07364e7143421ed040c086f95f

I believe these have meaning. He is hinting that things are going south at Intel; it’s just plain ol fearmongering. Then tonight, he publishes his big D energy earnings report and this stock will skyrocket 20%

This dinosaur company hasn't even recovered from the dot-com bubble crash, which is why expectations are so low now. I see this as an excellent buying opportunity; this company won't shit the bed today, as there's literally no expectation for them to win.

https://preview.redd.it/in0rv030x4yd1.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=08e5ae2998aa805689608cca3b50038a72128b44

Positions:

[$16k in shares using 5x leveraged CFD's since im eurotrash](https://preview.redd.it/2brffp25y4yd1.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=83c3f1325e27b2ec6a33ecf819d8c6d1c8c2b523)

For nana🤞🤞🕊️🕊️🕊️🕊️

*Not financial advice*"
AAPL,1730408936.0,1738,1ggp583,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggp583/today_is_the_5th_anniversary_of_the_guh_heard/,109,"It's fitting that AAPL reports earnings today, as exactly five years ago, we witnessed WSB Hall of Famer and ""King of the Autists"", CTN -- a.k.a. ControlTheNarrative -- graciously live-streaming the moment where his soul left his body, as he bet against AAPL earnings leveraged to the hilt with borrowed money, thanks to the ""infinite money glitch"" he discovered on Robinhood, getting epically margin called, and subsequently changing Robinhood's policies in the process.

Enjoy re-living the moment here:  
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kkc8ev/just\_in\_case\_yall\_forgot\_this\_video\_exists/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kkc8ev/just_in_case_yall_forgot_this_video_exists/)

Happy Halloween!

Edit: an acronym correction."
TSLA,1730479145.0,38,1gh9r8l,https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41674556/cathie-wood-bets-big-on-mark-zuckerberg-ark-pours-19m-into-meta-shares-dumps-palantir-and-tesla-?utm_source=robinhood.com&utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=ticker_page,20,"""Cathie Wood Bets Big On Mark Zuckerberg: Ark Pours $19M Into Meta Shares, Dumps Palantir And Tesla Stock""

I guess calls on TSLA and PLTR after the drop"
DD,1730486643.0,28,1ghcp1l,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghcp1l/small_balls_sbux_dd/,30,"My last few DDs were telling everyone to buy RDDT when it was in the 50s and 60s. Congrats to the minority of people that agreed with me and followed.

Have a much lower reward but high confidence DD here for Starbucks.

Starbucks has been shitting the bed lately, dropping in sales in the US and China. The stock gained back all of their losses when they hired the Chipotle CEO. Now SBUX is priced at 27 P/E which means the market is literally pricing in him not only stopping the bleeding but turning it back to growth. For the stock to go up, the turnaround would have to be fast and dramatic.

Brian Niccol, the new CEO does have an amazing track record, but here's why he has no chance. The guy only has US experience, and even if he helped Starbucks do a 180 in the US, it won't be enough. Starbucks no longer has an ""aspirational"" factor in China, Chinese people in general are turning against US brands except where the product is clearly exceptional (Apple). Starbucks is basically selling worse tasting drinks for 3x the price of competitors in China and nothing any CEO can do will stop the brand from collapsing there. 

The play -> sell a few Jan 2026 110 calls. It's basically free money."
L,1730487852.0,22,1ghd5mt,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1ghd5mt,20,Bought some W stock before the bell. Was up 16% when I had breakfast then down 8% by lunch time 😭 W turned to L 
MSTR,1730488586.0,21,1ghdfkk,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghdfkk/mstr_a_one_stock_bubble_mini_due_diligence/,41,"This is not financial advice. This is simply a compilation of the data and my interpretation of the company and the stock. My opinions are directed towards MSTR specifically, and not BTC, as I do believe in BTC as a store of value and a long term investment. This is a mini due diligence and only includes the information necessary for the analysis and thesis that: **True bitcoin ETF’s or BTC proper is by far a better investment than MSTR, and that MSTR is a self contained bubble.**  
  
**\*\*$MSTR** \- MicroStrategy Incorporated provides artificial intelligence-powered enterprise analytics software and services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers MicroStrategy ONE, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making….In addition, it engages in the development of bitcoin. I only put the two most important lines up in that description

**Market Capitalization** **-** $45.21B

  
**The numbers/financials:**

**1.**       **The (somewhat obsolete) core software business**  \- A disclaimer – these numbers currently aren’t factoring into the price of MSTR. If they were, this company would no longer exist. The price is explored more in point #2. Numbers are for Q3 2024

**a.       Total Revenue –** 116 mil, 10% decrease YOY

**b.      Gross profit –** 81.7 mil (70.4%) compared to 102.8 mil (79.4%) in Q3 2023

**c.       Operating expenses –** 514.3 mil, 301.6% YOY

**d.      EPS –** LOSS of $1.72 compared to analyst estimates of -0.12. A \~1500% miss

**e.       Cash & cash equivalents of 46.3 mil, decrease of 0.5 mil from end of fiscal 2023**

\*\***Note I am not insinuating that negative profits determine that a company is worthless. Many excellent companies experience negative profits for years. The problem here is contraction in profits and revenues consistently.\*\***

Saylor has recently described the software side of the business as a “cash cow” on an interview. I am unsure of what metric he is using to make that claim. Unless the cow is consuming cash rather than producing it. Regardless, I believe everyone is well aware now that the software side of the business gets almost zero attention from the company. While it is currently widely utilized among 5000+ companies, I believe there will come a time in the coming years that that part of the business just fades away into nothing, likely starting with dwindling product support.

**2.**       **Bitcoin holdings** – The business model of Microstrategy has basically changed to Bitcoin acquisition, and uses a metric MSTR has created called BTC yield, which it touts as the key performance indicator. More about BTC yield is explained in their financials, but essentially it is a measure of the efficiency/cost effectiveness of the way in which they acquire BTC. IT has nothing to do with the returns that BTC can generate the company or a shareholder, as one would think given the term “yield”

**a.**       **Total BTC holdings** – 252, 200, representing approximately 1% of the bitcoin that will ever be in circulation.

**i.**      **Cost** \- \~40, 000 USD per BTC on average, or a total of approximately 10.09B

**ii.**      **Current value -** \~70, 000 per BTC or 17.65B, a total of a 75% value add to the total BTC holdings since acquisition started in 2020

**3.**       **Shares and valuations –** 182.99M shares outstanding (Free float shares 162.91M)

**a.**       **Book value per share –** $18.62, representing a price to book value of \~13.5

**i.**      These numbers do not include any of the BTC on the books, per their financial statements.

**b.**      **BTC value per share -** $96.45 BTC exposure per share.

**c.**       **Current share price –** %250 +/- 20

**d.**      **Book value + BTC value per share –** 115.07 – representing an \*\*\***OVERVALUATION\*\*\*** of the company by $135 per share.

\*\*\***The BTC value per share represents a premium of $153.55 paid per share for the BTC exposure as compared to buying BTC directly\*\* The tradeoff/advantage advertised by Mr. Saylor is that MSTR has the ability to use leverage to acquire more BTC, thus amplifying stock price. The company is, in essence, becoming somewhat of a leveraged ETF for BTC with an extremely high entrance premium. So let’s talk about the effect of that and the stock price vs other strategies an investor could employ.**

 

**A.**      Volatility drag – Any leveraged product experiences volatility drag (also called volatility decay or beta slippage). Essentially, a 10% increase followed by a 10% decrease in the product price (and the underlying price) will result in a lower net price than one started at. Therefore, the losses are amplified by the volatility drag.

**a.**       For example – one dollar increases in value by 10% to 1.10. Then due to the volatility of the dollar, it goes back down 10%. What you are left with is $0.99 rather than $1. This works in reverse as well (1 down to 0.9 then up to 0.9)

**b.**      What this means is that, the higher the volatility, the greater that volatility will decay your initial capital over time

**c.**       In the case of BTC, one of the most volatile holdings someone can include in their portfolio, a 2.5-3x leveraged product will experience 2.5-3x the losses from the swings that BTC will experience.

**i.      THIS IS WHY MSTR price is down 6.5% today while BTC is only down 1.7%**

**ii.**      All leveraged products experience this, which is why leveraged ETF’s are generally not meant to be held long term. The daily rebalancing of the ETF amplifies this decay.

**iii.**      MSTR is obviously not rebalanced daily, but the swings will drive up that decay in a big way

**B.**      The usual price pressures vs those on MSTR

**a.**       MSTR is being labeled as a leveraged ETF. However, leveraged ETF’s and ETF’s in general are subject to the price being heavily influenced by the iNAV rather than buying and selling pressures per se. (intraday net asset value)

**i.**      MSTR, however, is fully subject to the buying and selling pressures as it is a company, not an ETF.

**ii.**      This means that news that triggers a huge selloff can crush the stock price while the BTC it is supposedly tracking (and owning) remains high.

**iii.**      OF course those selling and buying pressures are also heavily influenced by the price of BTC.

So why is everyone enamoured with MSTR, driving the price up? My opinion is that Michael J. Saylor is an incredibly good salesman. He has been selling this so hard since starting bitcoin acquisition and has convinced you to give him money to buy BTC for the company instead of owning any yourself. He has also convinced you his company is better to hold than real BTC ETF’s such as **IBIT or the 2x leveraged BITX.** This simply doesn’t make sense given the numbers above. Bitcoin is the future, no doubt, but you own zero bitcoin by buying into MSTR, but are rather paying for a small amount of exposure. If the company went under tomorrow, despite the shares you own, you would see none of that BTC.

**Beyond that, Michael J. Saylor is an actual crook. He was found to have been filing fraudulent financial statements for MSTR in 2000, pumping the MSTR price. He was fined and disgorged. In June of this year, he reached a settlement with the AG for back-taxes. He had not paid taxes from 2005-2020. This alone is a reason I will never go long in this stock. He is selling you half empty glasses of future promises.**  
  
**As for me, I will be shorting this stock daily only, but likely through options rather than short sales due to the risk that short term volatility brings. But it is, no doubt, a one stock bubble. My apologies for the formatting errors in transferring this from a document to here.**  
  
"
AVG,1730490166.0,19,1ghe135,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghe135/adobe_last_stock_promo_gives_a_nice_prospect_of/,18,"Adobe has a solid market presence with products that users love, from government organizations to corporate, media, education, entrepreneurship, and almost all of us.

In the most recent quarter Adobe earned a better than forecast, $4.65 a share. Revenue of $5.41 billion also topped consensus forecasts.

https://preview.redd.it/g55bjgzlbcyd1.jpg?width=814&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47d8b17f9816cdda8d6448c60c76ff5ebe34528f

https://preview.redd.it/o6fhwactbcyd1.jpg?width=595&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0cfa859dfc91171cef49f83bee9512cbf4ca8ff

Holiday sales will be better than last year. U.S. sales could jump 8.4% to a record $240 billion. Online shoppers will be more open to offers and more willing to buy nicer, more expensive items after months of choosing cheaper alternatives. Premium goods are expected to increase by 19%.

I expect a good next quarter and the whole year for Adobe. 5-month option Apr17’25 @ 520 give an excellent perspective for collecting good profits. At the option price of $33.50 (at the time of writing) with the increase of the shares to the price of $550 (below the last maximum) we have a potential profit of 110%. If the price increases to $580, the potential profit increases to 180%. At the price of $600 it would give a 200% profit. AVG target analysts are at the level of $620-640.

Currently IV is at the level of 27.8% and will start to increase due to upcoming Q4 and FY2024 earnings release on December 11.

I'm new to Reddit and looking forward to your comment ✌️"
TSLA,1730502956.0,8,1ghiqkq,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghiqkq/post_your_earnings_gainslosses_so_far_this_season/,31,"I’ll go first. I’m 0/4 this season. 

TSLA - not an actual loss but decided to NOT buy a call before earnings. Because I thought margins would suck ass because they started shoveling discounts to anyone and everyone before earnings. 

MCD - only a single call on this one. Was already down from ecoli incident. CMG after their ecoli incident recovered very well. Thought MCD would do the same. Nope. 

TREE - no options this time.  Only a small position of 30 shares. Down 20%. Rates are down this business should grow and I really think their product is unique. but “consumer outlook is muted next few quarters” WTF! Fuck!

HOOD - 300 shares, down 20% ish. all their promotions hit their margins (no shit) and apparently investors don’t like it when you spend money to grow your business… FUCK!"
SMCI,1730569741.0,0,1gi22us,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gi22us/smci_bullish_outlook/,36,"Hey guys, after seeing some recent posts it seems like quite a few of you are taking the bait against SMCI after the news came out with the cooked books. While that is a huge red flag, you cant ignore the massive influence it has in the market and how essential it is in the industry. The net sales almost doubled in 2024 and are expected to double again for 2025. See stats below:

https://preview.redd.it/i2qhjt5yziyd1.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=0959cc20eaf4dd1d0339e7b602fdb5cca37dfd4f

As a pilar in the industry, it is heavily focused on the green aspect of its systems as more companies adapt for these AI systems to their data centers.

https://preview.redd.it/yqb04gpkxiyd1.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=703999964fb3b4593286a1235000b84b16b0c0b1

I would argue that if the issues came from their core products as in defects, it would have a huge impact on them long-term. I'm positive that there are large investors or firms lining up to take the business with so much upside, all it takes is the right person to make the needle move. While cooking the books is not good news, it is a small bump in the road for the company with long term potential and solid performance, specially with AI capabilities growing in the near future.

https://preview.redd.it/x1y5u541wiyd1.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=51fa7c808e615e525b7051d3187e9f14245b7103

https://preview.redd.it/lw8zk8b3wiyd1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=a368c6942819bcc6560d4b70c852a098a4ae08d7

Currently buying equity and calls into 2025 at a discount. 

Not financial advice, best of luck regardos. 

sources:

[https://s204.q4cdn.com/707617056/files/doc\_financials/2024/q4/Exhibit-991\_2024-06-30-v6.pdf](https://s204.q4cdn.com/707617056/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Exhibit-991_2024-06-30-v6.pdf)

[https://s204.q4cdn.com/707617056/files/doc\_financials/2023/ar/SUPER-MICRO-COMPUTER\_2023-AR\_Web-Version.pdf](https://s204.q4cdn.com/707617056/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/SUPER-MICRO-COMPUTER_2023-AR_Web-Version.pdf)"
MSFT,1730421880.0,467,1ggtl36,https://i.redd.it/j7uyzu5os6yd1.jpeg,46,MSFT spreads until it spreaded me
LLY,1730492970.0,10,1ghf3gq,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghf3gq/shakeschangecup/,5,"15.7k to 3k in a week.

Notable losses included long calls on:

MSTR, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, FSLR, AMD, LLY

~~(DM for cashapp)~~

https://preview.redd.it/pd8hzhhxqcyd1.png?width=538&format=png&auto=webp&s=32fb2aa5cfd7e29e54f9304138825e491f97069e

"
UPS,1730401248.0,636,1ggm74t,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggm74t/amzn_will_crush_earnings_buying_all_the_shares_i/,169,"
Amazon the greatest company in the world. Delivery infrastructure is insane. FedEx and UPS can barely even hire drivers right now. Amazon stole USPS business right from the grubby little hands of FedEx. AWS is top notch. Half of Americans have a prime subscription. New storefront dropping that will compete with Temu prices, at a fraction of the shipping speed. Growing streaming catalog, Thursday Night Football, audiobook and ereader market segmented, exceptional customer service. Bezos keeps his customers happy. He will keep his stockholders happy. He may make his drivers piss in water bottles, but they get paid weekly and at a decent wage, so it’s no worries. Amazon should be the most valuable company in the world. 

POSITION
500 shares @ 186.36

No options, cus the only OPTION is to buy this company and see it hit 230 by EOY. "
CEO,1730494232.0,5,1ghfke9,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghfke9/is_boots_price_drop_an_opportunity_or_a_red_flag/,5,"BOOT dropped 20% after their CEO announced he was leaving for another company. Is this an overreaction, or does it point to bigger problems for the company?

Here's what we know:

* **The company is doing well financially.** BOOT beat earnings expectations in Q2 and is projecting strong growth for the rest of the year. Revenue increased 13.7% year over year and same-store sales were up 4.9%. Their e-commerce business is also growing consistently.
* **They have ambitious growth plans.** BOOT plans to add 500 more stores in the next few years, which could generate $1.5 billion in new sales. They expect these stores to be highly profitable with a fast payback period.
* **Their CEO was a big part of their success.** He led the company through a period of massive expansion, increasing the store count from 80 to almost 500.
* **A new CEO always brings risks.** It’s unclear if they can find someone who can execute the growth plan as well as the previous CEO. There’s also the potential for disruption and added costs during the transition period.

 Is this a buying opportunity? Or is the market right to be worried? 

"
DD,1730384225.0,1111,1ggflgx,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1ggflgx,223,I posted a DD on Altria this week so don't say I didn't try. 
CME,1730565226.0,0,1gi0ewp,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gi0ewp/the_fed_wont_cut_rates_on_november_7/,50,"https://preview.redd.it/s5kg8k1sliyd1.png?width=2090&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec2b3f822339878f4e88dfaeb6204086a0af8807

What are these probabilities on the CME FedWatch? I know that they are based on the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, but they don't make any sense. And maybe none of you reading this post, pay too much attention to these probabilities, but I see too many people speculating on a 0.25% rate cut or even a 0.50% rate cut. I consider a 0.50% rate cut beyond any probability. A 0.25% is a probability, but maybe has a probability of 35%. I think the 3rd option has the highest probability, which is an interest rate cut of 0% (so 65%). If you have followed the economic numbers on a weekly basis, you can see that these numbers are way too positive. 

*U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 99.5, actual 108.7):* 

Consumers’ assessments of **current business conditions** turned positive in October.

* 21.4% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 18.6% in September.
* 16.4% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 20.5%.

Consumers’ appraisals of the **labor market** improved in October.

* 35.1% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 31.3% in September.
* 16.8% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 18.6%.



*U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 7.980M, actual 7.443 M)*

*U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (forecast 110K, actual 233K)*

*U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast 106K, actual 12K)*

*The Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 229K, actual 216K)*

*Unemployment Rate (forecast 4.1%, actual 4.1%)*

The labor numbers can be quite conflicting, but this is normal given that they are collected using different methodologies. The ADP report covers private sector jobs. The NFP report covers public and private sector jobs and is published by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics state agency. Honestly, I don't know the reason behind the huge differences. Haven't checked it in detail but read that it had to do with the strikes and the hurricane from last month. On the other side, have the Initial Jobless Claims been the lowest since May. And not to forget, have the Average Hourly Earnings also increased on a monthly basis. On a yearly basis it remained the same. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the labor market here and it remains very strong. As seen earlier in my post, this is also reflected in U.S. Consumer Confidence. And ultimately it's human behaviour that drives the markets.



*Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (forecast 2.6%, actual 2.7%)*

With the employment numbers we can see that there is a potential for inflation to rise again. With the Core PCE Price Index we can see that it already did after the first cut. 

  
Conclusion: I think that the FED needs to act very careful here, not to let inflation increase again (or maybe go out of control). It cannot be the intention that there will be another interest rate cut of 0,25% now, and that within six months we will have an additional interest rate hike of 0.25% or even 0.50%. Therefore I think that in November we won't see an interest rate cut, and that in December an interest rate cut of 0,25% might be a possibility. 

  
"
SMCI,1730517025.0,2,1ghnclj,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ghnclj/smci_bull_thesis/,52,"I have taken a deep dive to truly understand the bull thesis on this stock. Let’s consider what the positives are at the moment:

1. **The fall from the March high of $1200**. Before the split that would be a drop from \~$1200 to $250 roughly a 80% loss in value. Bull Thesis…well after the split the numbers don’t look as bad. 1200 to 250 seems huge when compared to 120 to 25. So the drop now was only $95 vs $950. Psychologically better for a bull thesis when you look at this way…less room to climb!
2. **SMCI has made a complete u-turn to where it traded this time last year:** $1200 back to $250. Bull Thesis: history may repeat itself and you can do this all over again and not make the mistakes you did last time. 
3. **Low cost of entry.** Bull Thesis: If you wait a little bit to buy you may be able to get it at $10.
4. **Hindenburg Report**: Since the report came out two months ago the stock has sold off dramatically. Bull thesis: These claims have not been proven or even discussed by Charles Lang! His silence can only mean these are not true and not worth his time to discuss with shareholders. It is honorable of him to take our time into consideration and not force us to read a statement or watch a video explanation regarding the report. 
5. **10k has yet to be filed**. Bull Thesis: No one knows what the status is... so as far as we know it is a fantastic report. 
6. **DOJ probe**: Bull Thesis: Everyone knows that the DOJ probes almost every tech stock. There hasn't been much word about this lately, so it probably means the government just forgot about it and it is time to buy calls.
7. **EY resigning:** this one is simple. Bull Thesis: The EY resignation means Charles can save money and hire his cousins or other family member’s accounting firm for half the price.
8. **SEC delisting:** Well this one depends on the accounting firm. Bull Thesis: If Charles indeed does have a family member do the audit then the numbers will be golden, delisting averted and it is time to buy calls. 
9. **SP500:** If SMCI is kicked out of the SP500 then it is just 4 more quarters of growth to get back in and the stock will hit $120 again!

So in closing: Sure there are at least 9 items here that are a black cloud hanging  over SMCI. Sure other stocks don’t have these issues and are rallying to all time highs in the most bullish part of the year. Sure, you could sell and put your money in any of these others stocks and not have all these risks. But I see now if I just opened my mind and changed the way I think about SMCI there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. This whole time I should have done what most of the sub was doing…buy at ATH’s and DCA! I wasted almost a whole year not dollar cost averaging and now the stock is 80% below the March highs. I missed out on all that. "
EA,1730471138.0,9,1gh6n9s,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gh6n9s/dd_short_ea_as_their_new_aaa_game_dragon_age/,54,"Quick and simple. EA Games beat estimates just last week and are almost at all time high. Their top new game for which many people including me were waiting for: Dragon Age Veilguard just came out yesterady, and despite the positive reviews is a woke flop. The positive reviews are due to EA providing review copies only to reviewers which are known to be overly positive (i.e. IGN and the likes) but did not provide copies to others. Now that the game is out it has currently 55k players online on Steam (ranking #29 on Steam). That's embarassing for a first day for an AAA game. 

https://preview.redd.it/axvwceayuayd1.png?width=1448&format=png&auto=webp&s=f99bcdf3ea48b27968d60c8bed523393018b1115

TL;DR: Short EA, as their new flagship game Dragon Age Veilguard is a flop.

  
My position: 200 shares short at 150 USD. I will buy some puts as well. You can hold either till next results or just when the bad reviews come out (probably this week) and analysts realize that the game isn't going to continue selling well."
AMZN,1730397831.0,259,1ggkv20,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggkv20/heres_why_you_should_buy_amzn_for_earnings/,168,"Hi everyone. I used to work at AMZN (AWS specifically) as a Cloud Engineer - I was there for nearly 5 years. In my time there, I made lots of friends, many of whom I still keep in contact with today (this will be important later).

The stock was $153 at the beginning of the year, ran up to $200, collapsed back to $150 in the August 5 dump, and has had a hard time breaking $195 since. Today is a rough day in the market, but it's only one day - overall, the market is pumping in an upward trend due to the upcoming election. Additionally, the market is due for a melt up next year.

There's a lot of resistance at $200 for AMZN, but with the upcoming earnings today, along with the upward market trend toward the end of the year, once we break through $200, it'll keep carrying.

Now on to earnings: AMZN has lost a lot of high-paid employees over the past few months. Everyone knows about the RTO mandate that Jassy has implemented, and I've been hearing from multiple friends that people are leaving and looking for better opportunities elsewhere. **This is great for earnings**, as it shows that AMZN is cutting overhead costs for many of its departments, along with cutting several high-profile departments altogether. The AWS money machine continually grows, especially with the new services and tiers for each service it has been deploying - YoY growth is expected to increase. Additionally, the retail side of the company hasn't slowed down.

Last, but not least, I ordered something from AMZN and they said it was going to arrive in 2 days, but it arrived in 1.

My position: 200 shares @ $187.09 avg, hold through the election. After my 200 shares, I had enough for a few calls, so I bought a lotto ticket of 195C Exp 11/1, although the 11/8 Exp would probably be better.

4:10PM EDIT: The stock is up AH, but we need to break through $200. If we break through $200 AH, we should hold throughout the night and continue in an upward trend through tomorrow. If we do not break $200, we will be up but I'm not expecting a huge gain.

The actual earnings call will let us know where the stock is headed tomorrow."
INTC,1730378121.0,408,1ggdfgs,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggdfgs/intel_earnings_today_halloween_2024/,91,"I am the half-regarded grandson of dear Nana. My brother, u/Sad_Nefariousness10 infamously bought 23k INTC shares for $30.45 before the last earnings and he lost hundreds of thousands of Nana's inheritance in minutes. Luckily, it took me a few days to figure out how to use my computer's internet explorer, so Intel was in 19s before I could start loading my bags. I have now increased my original position from half the size of my brother's 23k share count to over 15k shares. There are a lot of news hit pieces on INTC this week; it seems Grand Papa might be pissed at Nana. It is only fitting that this momentous day is to occur on Halloween, for Nana. This should be their worst, most bloodiest earnings ever.

I am ready for this next bloody battle of INTC earnings this All Hallows Eve. Are you?

Lettuce prey Pat gives us Shrek's green raging phallic candle today!

https://preview.redd.it/5nxtdvw163yd1.png?width=357&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2e5ddd27d1d1a773694b16a477a079998b39a21

"
P,1730418135.0,22,1ggsd70,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggsd70/why_im_buying_puts_for_rklb/,81,"I am just a regarded with throwing away money, this is not investment advice!  
  
Listen up, fellow regards. I’m eyeing some RKLB puts going into their earnings next week. Don’t get me wrong, I like the company for the long haul, but let’s be real, we are talking earnings plays.

**1. Sky-High Expectations**

* Some analysts are expecting a maintenance of EPS, etc, as if revenue lift-offs are guaranteed. But here’s the thing: RKLB spends a massive amount—around 80% of revenue—just to get rockets off the ground. They’re in a position where they need everything to go right just to keep up.

**2. Costs Through the Roof**

* On top of rocket launch costs, they’ve got R&D, labor, and sales expenses, pushing their total spend to 1.6x their revenue. Every dollar they make costs $1.60, and that’s a steep price for a company that depends on rare launch events for revenue. If they miss a launch or run into issues, there’s no way they can make that up.

**3. Fewer Launches = Less Revenue**

* And here’s my whole point: Q3 had 25% fewer launches (I mean, they usually had 4 launches, and in Q3 they had 3, still 25% less). That’s 25% less revenue potential while they’re still burning through nearly the same level of expenses. So if you’re betting on them beating expectations, well… good luck with that.

**TL;DR:** less launches = less revenue => expectations are frustrated => stock goes down?

My positions  
100 shares @ $9

35 P @ $9 15/11

Hopefully someone will point a fatal flaw in time for me to get part of my money back..."
Z,1730418475.0,17,1ggsh58,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggsh58/snap_earnings_filled_price_gap_pins_next/,12,"TLDR: Seems kind of obvious, the play is PINS should beat by similar margin and have similar stock price action, filling the gap to 36s, maybe higher.  SNAP options usually has high premium and PINS likely to be in the same ball park. Earnings next week, 11/7 Th AH. Thinking to pick up 35C, still cheap about a hundo. Play the run up with premium and likely hold into earnings.

EDIT: picked up some 33c. 

[SNAP earnings price gap filled](https://preview.redd.it/he746ujgc6yd1.png?width=1527&format=png&auto=webp&s=3febecfd927a2394e7c21f3c7155b14059e229a4)

[PINS earnings to fill gap as well?](https://preview.redd.it/9lqiwukkc6yd1.png?width=1417&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a5dbf49a054de133ed5ecece5bc38cc8303a840)

I noticed price correlation between these two social media companies, doesn't appear to be a coincidence that they go up and down together (since IPO), even though they operate slightly in different spaces and business model (one deletes its video content & other one keeps it, non-video & arts & craft content) and cater to different demographics (mostly gen Z vs mostly crafty women). SNAP just beat by good enough margin, mentioned improving AI tech for future outlook, investors liked it, and filled the gap, kept its gains.

[SNAP beat.](https://preview.redd.it/g4yezgslg6yd1.png?width=262&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fcaa56a26cf52fd1499833b02d6efeabcac1f0d)

In Q2 2024, SNAP met EPS and crashed, and PINS barely beat and crashed.

[PINS EPS info](https://preview.redd.it/7gm6zrnpg6yd1.png?width=278&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b6351b55cf57ea60fe93d7db81a1da5f43eb93f)

Thoughts?"
SMCI,1730393266.0,48,1ggj3so,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggj3so/the_noose_around_smcis_neck_15b_convertible_debt/,39,"For those worrying about SMCI fraud, SEC and DoJ investigations, and possible NASDAQ delisting, the biggest problem is their $1.5 billion convertible notes from February when the stock was at $97.50 and if the holders come calling for their money back. They have been bleeding cash (see below) and they probably no longer have $1.5 billion in their bank accounts anymore.

[https:\/\/s204.q4cdn.com\/707617056\/files\/doc\_financials\/2024\/q4\/Earnings-Deck-Q4FY24-V5-w-2-of-2-at-end.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/m0e0wpire4yd1.png?width=2514&format=png&auto=webp&s=47a2e8faaf9f971a162bbe0e1e716960c738f983)

Supermicro Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $1.5 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029

February 23, 2024

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) (“Supermicro” or the “Company”), a Total IT Solution Manufacturer for AI, Cloud, Storage, and 5G/Edge, today announced the pricing of $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2029 (the “Convertible Notes”). The Convertible Notes are being offered and sold to “qualified institutional buyers” pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The Company also granted a 13-day option to the initial purchasers to purchase up to an additional $225.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Notes.

The Convertible Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Convertible Notes will not bear regular interest, and the principal amount of the Convertible Notes will not accrete. **The Convertible Notes have an initial conversion rate of 0.7455 shares of the Company's common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes (which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $1,341.38 per share of the Company’s common stock, representing an initial conversion premium of approximately 37.5% above the closing price of $975.52 per share of the Company’s common stock on February 22, 2024)**. The conversion rate and conversion price will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events.

The Convertible Notes will be redeemable, in whole or in part (subject to certain limitations), for cash at the Company’s option at any time, and from time to time, on or after March 1, 2027 and on or before the 20th scheduled trading day immediately before the maturity date, but only if the last reported sale price per share of the Company’s common stock exceeds 130% of the conversion price for a specified period of time. The redemption price will be equal to the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid special and additional interest, if any, to, but excluding, the redemption date.

**Holders of the Convertible Notes will have the right to require the Company to repurchase all or a portion of their Convertible Notes upon the occurrence of a fundamental change (as defined in the indenture governing the Convertible Notes) at a cash repurchase price of 100% of their principal amount plus any accrued and unpaid special and additional interest**, if any, to, but excluding the applicable repurchase date. The Convertible Notes will mature on March 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date. Prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding September 1, 2028, the Convertible Notes will be convertible only upon the satisfaction of certain conditions and during certain periods, and on and after September 1, 2028, at any time prior to the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, the Convertible Notes will be convertible regardless of these conditions. The Company will settle conversions by paying or delivering, as applicable, cash, shares of the Company’s common stock or a combination of cash and shares of the Company’s common stock at the Company’s election. The Company expects to close the offering on February 27, 2024, subject to the satisfaction of various customary closing conditions.

[https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2024/Supermicro-Announces-Pricing-of-Private-Offering-of-1.5-Billion-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes-Due-2029/default.aspx](https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2024/Supermicro-Announces-Pricing-of-Private-Offering-of-1.5-Billion-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes-Due-2029/default.aspx)

[As of last quarter, SMCI had $1.67B in cash and were cash flow negative in 3 consecutive quarters!](https://preview.redd.it/nm512jp3d4yd1.png?width=2324&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a43e6580775499be8ddb527fa6a8398e856f44e)"
III,1730415082.0,9,1ggrbds,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggrbds/msostlrycgc_deas_alj_hearing_on_cannabis/,14,"https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-marijuana-rescheduling-hearing-delayed-until-2025-agency-judge-rules/


""The Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) hearing on the Biden administration’s marijuana rescheduling proposal is being delayed until 2025, Marijuana Moment has learned.""

""After DEA Administrator Anne Millgram signed off on over two dozen witnesses to participate in the hearing on Monday, Chief Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) John Mulrooney issued a preliminary order on Thursday signaling that the information provided on those set to testify was insufficient and requesting additional details and potential availability for a formal hearing in January or February 2025.""

""When the Justice Department proposed moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III in March following a scientific review, advocates and stakeholders had hoped the rule would be finalized this year. And DEA did schedule the hearing for December 2—after the presidential election but before the January inauguration that will see an administrative changeup.""

**""Now the latest order from Mulrooney clarifies that won’t be the case.""**

**""The reason being is that DEA’s list of hearing participants who were selected and sent to the ALJ’s office provided “no indication in the four corners of the document as to whether the ‘participants’ support or oppose the [notice of proposed rulemaking] or how the ‘participants’ satisfy the ‘interested person’ definition set forth in the regulations,” the judge’s order says.""**

**“Indeed, the [Participant Letter] contains only a list of persons and organizations accompanied by one or more email addresses, without the benefit of notices of appearance, addresses, or even phone numbers,” it says.**

""**The order from the DEA ALJ says that selected participants must provide such details by November 12**. DEA is mandated to provide “its counsel(s) of record who will be appearing in these proceedings, as well as any known conflicts of interest that may require disclosure” on the same date.""


""Here’s the list of witnesses that DEA selected:""

-Counsel for the Government

-Village Farms International

-National Cannabis Industry Association

-American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine

-Cannabis Bioscience International 
Holdings Hemp for Victory

-State of Connecticut

-Massachusetts Cannabis Advisory Board

-Veterans Initiative 22

-The Doc App. Dba, My Florida Green

-The Commonwealth Project

-Saint Michael’s College

-National Drug and Alcohol Screening Association

-Smart Approaches to Marijuana

-International Academy on the Science and Impact of Cannabis

-Cannabis Industry Victims Educating Litigators

-National Transportation Safety Board

-Attorney General Mike Hilgers for the State of Nebraska

-International Association of Chiefs of Police

-Drug Enforcement Association of Federal Narcotics Agents

-American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

-Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America

-Tennessee Bureau of Investigation

-National Sheriff’s Association

**""An initial hearing will still take place on December 2, but the judge said no testimony or evidence will be taken at the tame.""**

“Designated Participants who will participate will come prepared with January-February 2025 availability dates regarding their counsel and any witness such [designated participants] will seek to present at the hearing on the merits,” he said. “Dates for the hearing on the merits and other deadlines will be fixed in a prehearing ruling, which will be issued after the preliminary hearing where the parties have been afforded the opportunity to supply logistical and availability input.”


...I honestly don't know what to think, besides thinking that this gross display of incompetence is just ridiculous. While also not ruling out the possibility of sabotage, although I can only speculate now.

Either way, at least now we know who are the participants taking part on the hearings, the list is seems to be even at both sides, but I don't know enough about the participants to be 100% sure.

This explains the massive sell off on the sector that happened early this week, which I can only assume it will resume even further tomorrow and on the following weeks.

Regardless, I'm not selling now, not after so fucking long and not after being down so much.

Positions:

1000 shares of MSOS @ $7,69 average.

God help us with this nonsense...

Not Financial Advice."
SMCI,1730385305.0,48,1ggg050,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1ggg050,16,"Got really lucky in September with Smci puts and tripled my account. My main strategy is to swing trade against large stock movements, expecting a reversal. 

Gambled the rest away this month, its been a continuous lose streak and I’m back to $200 left in my account. 

My main positions: 

Gains
SMCI Puts (~10k)
ASTS Puts (~3k)

Losses 
TSLA Puts
HUM Puts
APD Puts 

Lost about 7k in total on tesla puts, kept revenge trading at first since I couldn’t believe why the stock kept rising and my losses mounted. Did the same for HUM and APD (still have no clue what those companies are about), which I lost about 3-4K on. 

I’m still a student, and got life-changing money by luck and squandered it away. 

I’m still pretty unfazed by the losses still and will ride or die with the remaining money in my account. The gambler’s high is everything to me, and I’ll playing in the casino for the long haul and will keep adding more money when I build up my savings. Wish me luck"
AMZN,1730383561.0,47,1ggfcdx,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggfcdx/amzn_aand_appl_earnings_today_what_do_we_think/,84,"Been seeing very mixed info on AMZN earnings predictions and APPL has been having some bad news in the recent months, are we shorting?"
ADUS,1730422824.0,6,1ggtvsb,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggtvsb/population_health_is_declining_so_adus_should/,7,"**Intro**

Addus Homecare provides in-home personal care (laundry, cooking, cleaning) and in-home health care.  Clients are mostly elderly, disabled, or chronically unwell.  As the physical & mental health of the population declines, demand for in-home care increases.  Recent data indicates that the overall health of the population is declining.  Earnings release is Monday, November 4 after the closing bell.

**Health Insurance Results**

All major health insurance companies reported unexpectedly high medical utilization in quarter 3.  United Health had a benefit expense ratio of 85.2% vs. 82.3% in prior year quarter.  The stock dropped 8.4% after earnings.  Elevance had a ratio of 89.5% vs 86.8% in prior year quarter.  ELV dropped 7.1% after earnings.  

The 4 major health providers (UNH, CVS, ELV, HUM) were down an average of 13.6% in October while the rest of the market was flat.

**Elderly Housing & Elderly Care Results**

On the other hand, all major elderly housing & care stocks have reported surging occupancy as the number of people unable to live independently continues to increase.  Ensign (the largest nursing home operator) reported a Q3 occupancy increase of 2.8% vs prior year quarter, to reach their highest occupancy rate ever.  Welltower (the largest senior living REIT) occupancy is up 3.1%.

The 6 largest Elderly housing & care providers (WELL, VTR, OHI, ENSG, PACS) are up an average of 5.3% in the month of October alone.

**ADUS analysts are not connecting the dots**

Increased medical utilization and surging elderly facility occupancy are bellwethers for ADUS but analysts do not appear to have noticed this yet.  Both of these factors indicate that demand for in-home health & personal care should be high.  But ADUS is down 6.5% in October on no obvious news. 

When United Health was the first major health insurance provider to report bad Q3 results, hospital providers (HCA, UHS, THC) all went up, as they should have.  When Welltower was the first major senior living REIT to report strong Q3 results, other elderly care stocks went up too. 

Upcoming ADUS results should be positively correlated to elderly care earnings results and negatively correlated to health insurance earnings results.  But that hasn’t happened yet.  Analysts may be overlooking these relationships because ADUS has a relatively small market cap and ADUS is unique because it is the only publicly traded company that gets the majority of revenue from home personal care. 

**Labor Situation**

Home health & personal care is labor intensive.  A high demand for these services is irrelevant if a company can not find enough workers.  Fortunately, the labor situation has improved drastically in the last 2 years and continues to improve. USA job opening rates have decreased to pre-pandemic levels: from 7.5% in 2022 to 4.5% today.  

Addus executives confirmed that the labor situation has improved for their company.  On the Q2 earnings call they said hires/day were at record highs and turnover rates were at record lows and that trend was continuing well into Q3.

**Valuation**

Normalized EPS for Q2 was $1.35 vs  Normalized EPS of $1.07 in Q2 2023.  So that gives earnings growth of 26.2%.  Normalized trailing p/e ratio is $125.7/($1.35\*4) = 23.4. 

Using earnings growth of 26.2% and p/e ratio of 23.4, we get a PEG ratio of 23.4/26.2 = 0.89.  So the stock looks undervalued without even considering the factors I wrote about earlier in this post.

**Recent Wallstreetbets DD**

OHI: posted 8/24: up 10% since 

LRN: posted 9/8:  up 30% on earnings day short squeeze

PACS posted 9/14: up 5% since with earnings yet to come

**Position**

$33,000 of ADUS shares

None of this is financial advice"
ULTA,1730399381.0,7,1gglgwn,https://i.redd.it/kcztdlyrx4yd1.jpeg,4,"Antecdotal evidence only:

Novo-nordisk: Several women aged 35-55 I know have started Ozempic. NONE of them have diabetes or high cholesterol. Only one was ""obese"". I was reading that there was a shortage of ozempic, meaning demand is high. If ULTA was ever a consideration due to customer demographic NVO should be as well.

International Telephone and Telegraph: I went to a giant defense show (AUSA) in Washington DC this month and ran across this seemingly non-descript unsexy company in the midst of 200mm tracked South Korean howitzers, taiwanese drone boat manufacturers, Rhinemetal tank recovery vehicles and more high-tech, drone AI bullshit than you can shake a stick at. Uniformed servicemen/women from all over the world. This quiet, 125 year old company is basically selling shovels to ALL those other ""gold mining"" companies. It is a multinational conglomerate that sells highly engineered products from shock absorbers for the Bradley to avionics wiring harness connectors for austere must-not-fail environments. They sell ultraspecialized pumps and a zillion other highly engineered products or expensive military, industrial, and infrastructure. Check out their latest earnings beat. This is a company that can pass on cost not to the consumer but to other companies who have nowhere else to turn. They in turn pass it on to the government (or foreign governments).

This is my thesis:

""If you are selling something, sell it to women aged 35-55; or the government.""

Initiated quarter-positions today in both should do a half or full, but Im not as regarded as yall. "
LLY,1730297514.0,969,1gfngr9,https://i.redd.it/t77kj3cviwxd1.jpeg,60,"RDDT $97C 11/01
LLY $780P 11/01"
FLY,1730299943.0,704,1gfoe9u,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gfoe9u/achr_time_to_fly_pt_2/,111,"**Midnight** Archer Aviation’s flagship eVTOL aircraft, is set to revolutionize urban air mobility. Designed for quick back-to-back flights, it's optimized for **20-50 mile trips** and can reach speeds up to **150 mph**. It features **12 electric motors and propellers** for redundancy, making it safer and significantly quieter (about **45 dB**) than traditional helicopters.  
  
The company has a **$6 billion backlog of orders**, including significant contracts with **United Airlines** and the **U.S. Air Force** (worth up to **$142 million**), indicating strong market demand.  
  
They're opening a **400,000 sq ft factory in Georgia** by the end of this year, aiming to produce **650 Midnight aircraft annually**, with plans to expand to over **2,300 units per year**.  
  
Archer's partnership with **Stellantis** (the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler) brings up to **$400 million** in funding and manufacturing expertise, positioning them well to scale production.  
  
The **FAA recently approved a new category of aircraft** (powered-lift), paving the way for eVTOL operations, which could be a **$1.5 trillion market by 2040**.  
  
The CEO, **Adam Goldstein**, is very transparent on Twitter. They also recently pouched **Billy Nolen**, the former acting FAA Administrator, to speed up certification.  
  
Financially solid, Archer has about **$590 million in cash**, giving them an **18-month runway**. They're targeting profitability with **40-50% gross margins**.

  
WE FLY IN THIS COUNTRY"
BP,1730397282.0,2,1ggkn5d,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggkn5d/chevron_puts/,11,"Regard mode. Lost too much on HOOD calls. Chevron seems to be trading a little high, has room to fall to 135 ish.

BP fell after earnings, Shell rallied after earnings. Im going to take a bet Chevron is going to fall, no clue what their financials look like, recent news seems bleak. Low IV options, too enticing.

Bought 2k worth of puts don't know if I should go all in."
ARE,1730340040.0,32,1gg3qgr,https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1gg3qgr,18,"1. THOSE ARE GREAT NUMBERS, what could go wrong.    


2. THOSE WERE GREAT NUMBERS, WHAT THE HELL WENT WRONG.   


3. GODDAMMIT THOSE NUMBERS.  


You can't make this shit up"
CEO,1730326148.0,63,1gfyrrj,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gfyrrj/anyone_else_confused_sbux/,41,"So if you have bad earnings all you have to do is announce it a week early and you’re good? Crazy! 

$SBUX misses EPS by 20%, and not only does it barely move after hours, but it’s up?……

This is a Fast Food chain, not a Tech Company, having a good CEO won’t change the whole future trajectory of the company."
SMCI,1730297809.0,258,1gfnkti,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gfnkti/super_micro_computer_inc_nasdaqsmci_is_an/,156,"From an article yesterday on Yahoo Finance courtesy of Insider Monkey, the day before Ernst & Young resigns as their accountant and the stock drops by 1/3. The stock market lottery has a surprise around every corner. Long, short, whatever you want, there's a chance. If this convinced you to get back in yesterday, what a surprise was in store today.  


Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) is an unstoppable stock that could make you richer as it is developing high-performance server and storage solutions that are in high demand amid the artificial intelligence race and digital revolution. It is turning out to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom as it makes computers that companies use as servers for data storage.

At the start of 2024, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) held just 6% of the worldwide server market. Selling liquid-cooled, high-performance servers for demanding computing tasks has allowed it to carve out a niche for itself. Because of this, Nvidia found Supermicro to be a perfect partner and provided it with top-tier data center GPUs to aid in producing dedicated AI servers.

Though not exclusive, its strategic partnership with Nvidia has strengthened its competitive edge in the server market. Super Micro’s revenue more than quadrupled from $3.6 billion in fiscal 2021 to $14.9 billion in fiscal 2024, coinciding with the generative AI market’s explosive growth. Additionally, its earnings per share (EPS) increased by almost ten times. More than half of its revenue now comes from AI servers.

The confirmation that Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) is shipping more than 100,000 graphics processing units used for artificial intelligence underlines the strong demand that could translate into billions of dollars in revenues. Like other cloud service providers, Super Micro claimed to have recently installed over 100,000 GPUs with liquid cooling for some of the largest AI factories ever built.

The soaring GPU orders are one of the reasons analysts remain bullish about Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI), with an average price target of $64.22, implying a 33.40% upside potential as of October 25, 2024. As per Insider Monkey’s Q2 2024 database, the company was in the portfolios of 47 hedge funds.

[Scout Investments, Inc](https://www.insidermonkey.com/institutional-investor/scout-investments-inc/20489/), an affiliate of [Carillon Tower Advisers](https://www.insidermonkey.com/institutional-investor/carillon-tower-advisers-inc/1984690/), released a second-quarter 2024 investor letter. [**Here**](https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/super-micro-computer-smci-fell-after-disappointing-earnings-guidance-1348885/) is what the fund said:

>

Overall SMCI **ranks 8th** on our list of 8 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Make You Richer. While we acknowledge the potential of SMCI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SMCI, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock."
LLY,1730339612.0,21,1gg3lhi,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gg3lhi/surely_meta_will_recover_tomorrow_right_rightttt/,21,"https://preview.redd.it/paatqcenzzxd1.png?width=1687&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0579d76d9aab6fff02d3b1269dc0a2ec03b65f5

Make a quick gain on META put before close and decided to join the train, now this might be shat.

Same with LLY call if it doesn't recover ....."
FCF,1730319041.0,26,1gfw0r4,https://open.substack.com/pub/andrew310743/p/flying-too-close-to-the-sun?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=1rwlhn&utm_medium=iosj,59,"Had a pitch on PLTR from last Friday. Now that there’s this much insider selling that’s the nail in the coffin. Here’s the pitch for those interested: 
Recommendation: I recommend a short on Palantir Technologies. The stock is currently priced at $44.79 per share, which I believe will drop by about 20-30% in the next 6–12 months. This is because, the market is highly exuberant in regards to PLTR, pricing in extreme growth rates despite signs of stunting commercial growth. Additionally, overreliance on cyclical government contracts as well as downward pressure on margins due to new AI product launches has led me to believe PLTR is overvalued, which I will prove via this pitch.
Company Background: Palantir at its core is a company that focuses on data-analytics, specializing in integrating large amounts of data and operationalizing that data for the public and private sectors. Its speciality lies in the extreme flexibility it provides customers in the form of Forward Deployed Engineers (FDE’s), who can create bespoke AI solutions for any customer. The key platforms are:
Gotham, a government intelligence and geospatial platform that is meant to analyze data from various sources to help support military operations and disaster response. Foundry, the commercial segment of the business: This begins with the cleaning and structuring of data, which leads into the integration of this data into AI models (AIP). These models are meant to operationalize company data improving top level decision making. Apollo integrates these systems delivering infrastructure and continual updates.
The advantage of this system is two-fold: First is the “ontology”, an effective digital twin of the business, which allows 1. collaboration across departments and 2. The ability to reason across data and create automations and decision making processes from it (Operationalizing data differentiates PLTR from Snowflake and Databricks which focus on simple storage and basic data analytics). The second is the labor-intensive approach in which the company deploys engineers on-site to negotiate data access, clean that data and build extremely customizable and mission critical infrastructure (Creates high switching costs)
To give a brief financial overview, PLTR expects to report 2.8B in net sales, which translates to 2.2B (82.5% Gross Margin) in gross profit, 1B in EBIT (35.4% Operation Margin) and 950M in FCF (34.3% FCF Margin).
Most recently PLTR reported revenue of 678.1M (up 27% YoY), beating consensus by 3.8% (563.2M). Guidance was raised 4% for Q3 and 3% for FY2024. This seems aggressive considering that this raise in guidance is larger than the beat just posted. Thus, as expectations grow towards the moon, significant earnings beats will be required for PLTR to continue rising
Investment Thesis: Markets are skewing towards exuberance on PLTR, pricing in absolute perfection and unachievable growth for 3 key reasons. 
First let’s get a lay of the land with valuation multiples. Palantir is trading at an exuberant valuation multiple of 39x sales, surpassing even the largest monopolies and industry players:
NVIDIA, probably the hottest stock at the moment, has monopolized over 90% of the GPU market–a necessary prerequisite to our AI revolution, 62% operating margins and revenue growth of 126% in 2024E trades at 35x sales. Databricks, the current leader in data analytics, traded at about 26x sales (And this was during the peak of the SaaS market when Q4 2023 earnings faked out investors). Snowflake, often considered overvalued by investors, trades at around 11x sales.
So–Does Palantir have a stronger monopoly than Nvidia, more recurring revenue than Databricks, stickier revenue than Snowflake? The answer is no.
Proponents of PLTR often tout individual cases of companies loving their product, but let’s look at it from the top. Net Revenue Retention (NRR) is one of the most popular KPI’s for SaaS companies, essentially saying do customers spend more every year on the product? In other words, have customers loved the product so much that they increase their usage the next year? The answer for PLTR–kind of? Palantir's NRR stands at approximately 110%, down from 115% two years earlier, demonstrating a poor ability to upsell and retain customers. In contrast, Snowflake boasts an NRR of 130% this year and 150% last year when its EV/Sales multiple was at 10x and 20x respectively. This suggests that cheaper competitors not only have higher revenue quality but also more robust growth prospects.
Next, let’s look at if the current growth prospects are even justified: Unfortunately, Palantir's commercial customer growth is already slowing. A few notes here: Firstly, The number of new commercial customers added has declined from 57 in Q1 to 39 in Q2. Secondly, Palantir's Bootcamp program, which aims to onboard new customers, has seen participant numbers drop from around 350 to about 110. Thirdly, the last beat on commercial revenue was largely due to one-time boosts in revenue (For example, they invested into a few SPAC’s previously as they were using foundry, which did quite well)
On the government side, growth has been pretty strong (Though not strong enough) and drove almost 100% of the consensus beat. However, management noted that the segment benefited the “favorable” deal timing dynamics, implying potential growth slowdown in future quarters.
Furthermore, margins are likely to be depressed in the next few earnings calls: PLTR has announced the release of a new product recently. Analysts noted that this would depress margins in the upcoming report. However, an additional feature was announced 3 weeks ago that likely had significant opex expenses associated that haven’t been priced in considering recent rallies in the stock. 
Finally, there is increasing competition in the AI analytics space (Think Databricks, Snowflake and even companies like Airtable), making it easier and easier to process and operationalize unstructured data. At the end of the day, there simply aren’t that many use cases for an extremely expensive labor intensive service, which cannot move downmarket no matter how well-loved the service is (As well to organizations with well endowed data science teams).
The realization of any of these notes in earnings reports as well as a resolution in any of the geopolitical issues that the US is attached to today could be a turn in investor sentiment and enormous room to the downside. Additionally, macro risks to enterprise spending, intensified by the enormous cost of PLTR’s service create more downside risk.
Valuation: Based on a DCF analysis, to justify PLTR’s current pricing, the company needs to expand operating margin 6% by 2029, actually accelerate to a 30% growth rate (from 24%) by 2027 through 2029 as well as maintain a 20x EV/sales multiple (Assumed 14.5% discount rate). However, even in a bull case where we model a 2% beat on consensus revenue annually, and 6% margin expansion by 2029, we still arrive at $35 per share, a 20% drop from current levels.
Risk Factors: The biggest risk here is related to the government sector. Specifically the DoD outlines in its 2024 plan a shift to larger-scale implementation and a focus on data and overall modernization of systems. This sounds like the DoD and PLTR are pretty lovey dovey, which could potentially spell higher valuations. Further, the escalation of more dormant issues, like that of China and Taiwan could lead to higher than expected spending and therefore contract signings.
Unexpected commercial strength could also occur. Strong enterprise SaaS spending as rates drop could accelerate sales as well as new product launches. For example, Physical AI applications with the new Live Edge platform (focusing on manufacturing use cases) have been added. However, this is unlikely to bring in revenue until later in 2025.
To hedge against these risks, we could purchase call options, long various paired stocks or set a stop loss.
"
SMCI,1730343577.0,6,1gg4v97,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gg4v97/smci_index_replacements/,17,"With the catastrophic news on SMCI  what replaces them in the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100?  

I assume it will be another server company?  Dell for N100 would be my best but I'm unsure of the S&P.   Ideas???"
CEO,1730376010.0,0,1ggcrd0,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ggcrd0/peloton_pton_to_the_moon/,33,"[https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/peloton-pton-q1-2025-earnings.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/peloton-pton-q1-2025-earnings.html)

Alright regards, the Peloton turnaround is in full swing. Two quarters of progressive improvement, and the sky is the limit. Get in and get your tendies. I expect new CEO to further improve the business, with positive earnings on the horizon. "
MSFT,1730337751.0,6,1gg2zdq,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gg2zdq/amazon_puts_intel_calls_tmr/,43,"For f sake, I’m totally done with this market today. Lost so much in MSFT and Meta calls.

My reason for tomorrow’s play -
Intel - Reverse WSB obviously, makes sense to buy calls but this market doesn’t make sense now… 

Amazon - their revenue is expected to miss because over the last year, Temu and other online retailers are becoming more popular, there’s no way Amazon will reach the 157B in revenue expectation. 

"
III,1730285797.0,39,1gfjqx5,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gfjqx5/msostlrycgc_the_dea_begins_calling_witnesses_for/,5,"https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-begins-selecting-witnesses-for-marijuana-rescheduling-hearing-inviting-industry-stakeholders-and-prohibitionists-to-testify/

""The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has started selecting witnesses to participate in a much-anticipated hearing on the Biden administration’s proposal to federally reschedule marijuana that’s scheduled for December, Marijuana Moment has learned.""

""This comes about seven months after the Justice Department formally proposed moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) following a scientific review. After a public comment period, which saw tens of thousands of people weigh in on the issue, a hearing was set for December 2 to gather additional expert input.""

**""The National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA) is among those that received a notice from DEA this week that their request to participate in the hearing has been granted.""**

**""A source familiar with the administrative proceedings told Marijuana Moment that anti-cannabis groups Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM), Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America (CADCA) and National Drug & Alcohol Screening Association (NDASA) have also received notices granting their requests.""**

""It’s not clear how many witnesses DEA selected of the many who submitted requests ahead of the hearing, nor it is apparent whether the agency plans to continue granting requests on a rolling basis in the coming weeks. Representatives of major pro-marijuana organizations such as NORML and the Marijuana Policy Project (MPP) said they have not yet received a response on their requests to participate as of Tuesday afternoon.""

So the presence of two major anti-marijuana groups were already expected, the DEA will have to hear both sides of the aisle in the matter, but it feels odd that they invited anti-marijuana groups but so far, did not invited any pro-marijuana group besides major stakeholders in the industry.

Regardless, out of all the comments that were sent to the DEA a month ago, the amount of positive comments to rescheduling the plant completely dwarfed the negatives, and the invitation process is just beginning anyway, so I can assume that more people and groups will be invited.

Either way, I do not expect this rescheduling process to be over this year, given that the ALJ will only happen in December, even if it, it would only be  in efeect in 2025 anyway.

Positions: 1000 shares of MSOS @ $7.69 average.

I'm holding through the elections, so far the polls are looking favorable for Florida's Amendment 3 passing which will be great for the tier 1 MSOs, but I'm also keeping an eye out on who is going to be elected in November, and what the cabinet is gonna look like.

The sector went up last week, but now it's further down than before, if you're on this ride then expect lots of volatility and market dumps in the coming days. Weedstocks are not for the faint of heart.

Not Financial Advice, invest at your own discretion."
JPM,1730314376.0,9,1gfu6ih,https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1gfu6ih/thought_the_watch_was_neat_so_i_bought_calls/,7,"

https://preview.redd.it/upl7vnsxwxxd1.png?width=1842&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bd65de5bd099b8c605ad2c451a4a11d747df692

I wanna thank the pricks at Morgan Stanley and JPM for downgrading the stock before earnings so I could double-down"