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predict-first, the checklist

The protocol without any agent. Print it, pin it, use it before every change that is judged by a number.

Before you run anything

  • Hypothesis in one sentence: which cause, which symptom, what the change does.
  • Predictions P1 to Pn, each with a number and a threshold.
  • One prediction that the baseline shows the symptom.
  • One counter-prediction: what the change will probably not achieve.
  • One falsifier: the result that would prove the idea wrong.
  • One prediction per independent symptom.
  • Decision rule: which predictions must hold for adoption.

Running

  • The change is a temporary patch in a scratch script, not an edit.
  • Baseline first, then patch, same inputs, same seeds, same window.
  • If the run was reduced, that is written down.

Judging

  • Table: prediction, measured, holds or fails, one row each.
  • No prediction was reworded, loosened, or dropped after the run.
  • Failed predictions are reported as failed, without excuses.
  • The decision rule is applied as written.

Only then

  • Adopt: make the real change, put the table in the commit or pull request.
  • Do not adopt: keep the script as a record, go back to the hypothesis.