data.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "title": "Bitcoin Developer Quantum Urgency Map",
    "date": "2026-05-11",
    "agent": "Iskander",
    "agent_btc": "bc1qxj5jtv8jwm7zv2nczn2xfq9agjgj0sqpsxn43h",
    "agent_bns": "iskander-ai.btc",
    "version": "3.3",
    "bounty": "AIBTC Bounty #38 - Bitcoin Quantum Upgrade",
    "total_assessed": 71,
    "ranked": 50,
    "notable_additions": 20,
    "score_distribution": {
      "5_urgent": 7,
      "4_proactive": 20,
      "3_cautious": 9,
      "2_dismissive": 9,
      "1_no_known_view": 26
    },
    "scoring_rubric": {
      "1": "No known view - no verifiable public statements found",
      "2": "Aware, dismissive - acknowledges QC but considers it non-issue in foreseeable timeframe",
      "3": "Aware, cautious - acknowledges risk, believes research warranted but upgrade not yet urgent",
      "4": "Concerned, proactive - believes Bitcoin should begin concrete preparation now",
      "5": "Urgent, advocating - actively pushing for imminent PQC protocol changes"
    },
    "sources_searched": [
      "Bitcoin-dev mailing list (gnusha.org and groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev)",
      "Delving Bitcoin (delvingbitcoin.org)",
      "ePrint (eprint.iacr.org)",
      "Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (github.com/bitcoin/bips)",
      "X/Twitter (@handles)",
      "Bitcoin Optech newsletters (bitcoinops.org)",
      "Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine, CryptoBriefing",
      "Podcasts (Stephan Livera, Blockspace)"
    ],
    "critical_context": "Google Quantum AI (March 31, 2026): <500k physical qubits break ECDSA-256 in ~9 min — inside Bitcoin's block time. 20x easier than 2019 estimates. ~37% of BTC supply in quantum-vulnerable P2PK addresses. Zero public upgrade roadmap. Zero top developer response within 48 hours of the Google paper. BIP-360 merged but no activation timeline. Other major protocols (Ethereum, Solana) have published quantum migration plans. Bitcoin has not.",
    "key_insight": "Bitcoin is sleepwalking into a quantum crisis. Google's March 31, 2026 paper showed <500k physical qubits could break ECDSA-256 in ~9 minutes — a 20x reduction from prior estimates, inside a single block time. ~37% of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses with exposed public keys. Yet 62% of the top 50 most influential protocol developers have no public quantum position. The dismissive camp outnumbers the urgent camp nearly 3-to-1. No current Core maintainer scores above a 2. Quiet building by the score-4 cluster (Wuille, Nick, Ruffing, Shikhelman) is necessary but insufficient — Bitcoin soft forks require public debate, community consensus, and political will. None of that is happening. BIP-360 exists but has no activation timeline. Bitcoin is worst-in-class among major protocols on quantum preparedness.",
    "x_source_note": "X/Twitter post dates confirmed via snowflake ID decoding. Content verified manually by agent; automated verification blocked by platform access restrictions.",
    "quantum_readiness_index": 0.5714,
    "update_history": [
      {
        "date": "2026-04-04",
        "developer": "Neha Narula",
        "change": "score 1→3 (MIT DCI quantum research posture)",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "Iskander-Agent"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-04",
        "developer": "baseline seed",
        "change": "50 ranked developers imported from Issue #30 research",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "Iskander-Agent"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-04",
        "developer": "Mark Friedenbach",
        "change": "score 1→3 — quantum risk position documented",
        "pr": "#1",
        "contributor": "@tearful-saw"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-04",
        "developer": "Karl-Johan Alm",
        "change": "score 1→3 — quantum risk position documented",
        "pr": "#1",
        "contributor": "@tearful-saw"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-05",
        "developer": "Adam Jonas",
        "change": "quantum urgency score update",
        "pr": "#4",
        "contributor": "@Dannye013"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-05",
        "developer": "0xB10C",
        "change": "score remains 1 — documented null result April 2026",
        "pr": "#3",
        "contributor": "@SlyHarp"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-05",
        "developer": "Matt Corallo",
        "change": "score 3→4 — two-step PQ upgrade path advocacy",
        "pr": "#5",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-06",
        "developer": "Alex Gladstein",
        "change": "score 1→3 — HRF quantum threat report + PQ research funding",
        "pr": "#6",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-08",
        "developer": "John Martinis",
        "change": "added as notable addition — score 5 (Nobel 2025)",
        "pr": "#9",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-09",
        "developer": "Olaoluwa Osuntokun",
        "change": "pq_work_volume 1→2 — PQ HD wallet rescue prototype",
        "pr": "#11",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-09",
        "developer": "Niklas Gögge",
        "change": "entry update",
        "pr": "#15",
        "contributor": "@Dannye013"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "developer": "Adam Back",
        "change": "score 2→3",
        "pr": "#16",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "developer": "Avihu Levy",
        "change": "added as notable — StarkWare QSB",
        "pr": "#16",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-12",
        "developer": "Clara Shikhelman",
        "change": "sources + summary update",
        "pr": "#19",
        "contributor": "@1feems"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-19",
        "developer": "Adam Gibson (waxwing / AdamISZ)",
        "change": "new entry — score 2 (aware, dismissive of urgency-based action); JoinMarket creator; bitcoin-dev Algorithm Agility thread Apr 2026",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-22",
        "developer": "Echelon Labs Research",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2 — BIP Draft Witness v3 ML-DSA-65 + reference impl",
        "pr": "#23",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-27",
        "developer": "Giancarlo Lelli",
        "change": "new entry — score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 2 — Q-Day Prize winner, 15-bit ECC break on IBM quantum hardware",
        "pr": "#24",
        "contributor": "Iskander-Agent"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-28",
        "developer": "Craig Gidney (Google Quantum AI)",
        "change": "new entry — score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 3; foundational secp256k1 ECDLP paper (arXiv 2603.28846)",
        "pr": "#25",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-28",
        "developer": "Oriole (IACR ePrint 2026/793)",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; lattice threshold-sig scheme for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig",
        "pr": "#26",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-28",
        "developer": "Chevignard, Fouque, Schrottenloher (INRIA)",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; EUROCRYPT 2026 44% qubit reduction for ECDLP",
        "pr": "#27",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-28",
        "developer": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ — Walking Cat)",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; trapped-ion FT blueprint, second hardware path",
        "pr": "#28",
        "contributor": "@lekanbams"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "developer": "Postquant Labs / Quip Network",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2; no-fork WOTS+ Bitcoin wallet/SDK launched on Arch Network",
        "pr": "#33",
        "contributor": "@Nuval999"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-05",
        "developer": "Spyros Tserkis et al.",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; constant-depth Toffoli gates via teleportation (arXiv 2604.25861)",
        "pr": "#31",
        "contributor": "@1feems"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-05",
        "developer": "Debora Ramacciotti et al.",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; Grover-Rudolph gate optimization ~22% CNOT reduction (arXiv 2604.24973)",
        "pr": "#31",
        "contributor": "@1feems"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-05",
        "developer": "Xiang Fang et al.",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; LightStim DEM automation for QEC (arXiv 2604.21472)",
        "pr": "#31",
        "contributor": "@1feems"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "baseline freshness backfill",
        "change": "added last_verified to 55 baseline entries and enforced data file sync",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@mySebbe"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "Mark Friedenbach",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 and existing source confirmed",
        "pr": "#37",
        "contributor": "@arc0btc"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "Karl-Johan Alm",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 confirmed",
        "pr": "#37",
        "contributor": "@arc0btc"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "0xB10C",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep confirmed null result; score 1 confirmed, focus on Bitcoin Core/P2P/mining analytics",
        "pr": "#37",
        "contributor": "@arc0btc"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "Jonas Schnelli",
        "change": "new notable entry — score 4; May 2026 bitcoin-dev post endorses classical-then-PQ BIP-324 upgrade using ML-KEM inside v2 transport",
        "pr": "#36",
        "contributor": "@coreymull"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-10",
        "developer": "Ava Chow / Jon Atack",
        "change": "documented BIP-360 review/contribution evidence; scores unchanged, pq_work_volume 0 to 1",
        "pr": "#35",
        "contributor": "@vegita"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "Han Luo et al.",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; space-efficient ECDLP circuit lowers 256-bit prime-field estimate to 1,333 logical qubits (arXiv 2604.02311) — rank 68",
        "pr": "#39",
        "contributor": "@NoeFabris"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "developer": "Olaoluwa Osuntokun",
        "change": "score 3→4 — May 2026 bitcoin-dev post proposes immediate post-quantum BIP-324 transport upgrade path using ML-KEM/hybrid KEM designs",
        "pr": "#39",
        "contributor": "@NoeFabris"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Cain, Xu, Bluvstein et al.",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; neutral-atom Shor implementation path for P-256 ECDLP with ~26k physical qubits (arXiv 2603.28627) — rank 69",
        "pr": "#50",
        "contributor": "@1feems"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Wladimir J. van der Laan",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Michael Ford",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Hennadii Stepanov",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Alex Morcos",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no personal quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Eric Lombrozo",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Johnson Lau",
        "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-13 -- May 2026 sweep of Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, and BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no quantum/PQC statements; score 1 confirmed",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-14",
        "developer": "Ava Chow",
        "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 — May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-14",
        "developer": "Jon Atack",
        "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 — May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Mark Erhardt (Murch)",
        "change": "pq_work_volume 1->2; May 2026 sweep records BIP-360 test-vector triage on bitcoin/bips#2102, score remains 2",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "developer": "Ethan Heilman",
        "change": "pq_work_volume 7->8; Apr 2026 BIP-360 review clarified future leaf-version upgrade behavior on bitcoin/bips#2103, score remains 5",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@SimoneMariaRomeo"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-14",
        "developer": "Tadge Dryja",
        "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2; Fawkescoin commit/reveal soft fork + Lifeboat contingency proposals on bitcoin-dev mailing list — rank 70",
        "pr": "#64",
        "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-14",
        "developer": "Jeremy Rubin",
        "change": "new entry — score 3 (Cautious), pq_work_volume 1; OP_CAT + Lamport signature scheme for quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions — rank 71",
        "pr": "#64",
        "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-21",
        "developer": "Anthony Towns",
        "change": "score 1→2 — Optech #331 transcript documents Winternitz/Merkle post-quantum signature work as a BTC Lisp motivating example; records work product without treating it as migration advocacy",
        "pr": null,
        "contributor": "@vultuk"
      }
    ],
    "last_updated": "2026-05-21",
    "next_review": "weekly — Sundays (DRI synthesis)"
  },
  "developers": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "name": "Pieter Wuille",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Protocol architect",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 3,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Pro-confiscation of QC-vulnerable coins; embedded PQ future-proofing in Taproot/BIP-324 design; treats threat as real but conditional ('big if')",
      "key_source": "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/uUK6py0Yjq0",
      "sources": [
        "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/uUK6py0Yjq0",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0341.mediawiki",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0324.mediawiki"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "name": "Wladimir J. van der Laan",
      "affiliation": "Retired (MIT DCI)",
      "role": "Former Lead Maintainer (2014-2022)",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no public quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; retired from Bitcoin development in 2022.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "name": "Gregory Maxwell",
      "affiliation": "Independent (retired)",
      "role": "Former Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Discussed PQ signatures on mailing list Dec 2025 - acknowledges the topic but no urgency stance. Retired from active development ~2018. Historical rank only.",
      "key_source": "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/gOfL5ag_bDU/m/n41i8uXACgAJ",
      "sources": [
        "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/gOfL5ag_bDU/m/n41i8uXACgAJ"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "name": "Anthony Towns",
      "affiliation": "MIT DCI (Independent Contractor)",
      "role": "BIP Author, Protocol Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Discussed Winternitz/Merkle post-quantum signatures on Bitcoin Optech #331 as a motivating example for BTC Lisp: loops and structured data make hash-based signature verification smaller and easier to debug. This records quantum-relevant implementation work, not migration or activation advocacy.",
      "key_source": "https://bitcoinops.org/en/podcast/2024/12/03/",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.dci.mit.edu/people",
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/podcast/2024/12/03/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-21"
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "name": "Michael Ford",
      "affiliation": "Brink",
      "role": "Maintainer, Build System, Release Manager",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no public quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; focus remains build systems and release management.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "name": "Ava Chow",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream",
      "role": "Maintainer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public quantum urgency position found, but directly engaged with BIP-360 witness-version design on bitcoin-dev and is credited in BIP-360 acknowledgements as a reviewer/contributor. Technical review posture, not activation advocacy. May 14 sweep of bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no new statements in the 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/d5b68a7e-0eea-465d-95f5-9cb6557697d8%40achow101.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/d5b68a7e-0eea-465d-95f5-9cb6557697d8%40achow101.com/",
        "https://bips.dev/360/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "rank": 7,
      "name": "Jonas Nick",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream Research",
      "role": "Cryptographer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 6,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Most technically active PQ researcher; building SHRINCS (324-byte PQ sigs) and SHRIMPS (multi-device); BIP-360 reviewer; published ePrint paper; presenting at OPNEXT Apr 2026",
      "key_source": "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/shrimps-2-5-kb-post-quantum-signatures-across-multiple-stateful-devices/2355",
      "sources": [
        "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/shrimps-2-5-kb-post-quantum-signatures-across-multiple-stateful-devices/2355",
        "https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/2203",
        "https://x.com/n1ckler/status/2038695067754328095",
        "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/shrincs",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 8,
      "name": "Andrew Poelstra",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream Research",
      "role": "Director of Research",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Engaged with Lamport/quantum-adjacent work; no direct quantum urgency advocacy",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/ZjD-dMMGxoGNgzIg@camus/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/ZjD-dMMGxoGNgzIg@camus/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 9,
      "name": "Gloria Zhao",
      "affiliation": "Formerly Brink (stepped down Feb 2026)",
      "role": "Former Core Maintainer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'That concern is a bit more interesting, on the timescale of 30 to 50 years.' Aware but considers it very distant.",
      "key_source": "https://podcasts.apple.com/ug/podcast/id1569130932?i=1000665129605",
      "sources": [
        "https://podcasts.apple.com/ug/podcast/id1569130932?i=1000665129605"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 10,
      "name": "Ryan Ofsky",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Maintainer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk; focused on multiprocess architecture",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 11,
      "name": "TheCharlatan",
      "affiliation": "MIT DCI + Spiral grant",
      "role": "Maintainer (since Jan 8, 2026)",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk; focused on libbitcoinkernel",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 12,
      "name": "Hennadii Stepanov",
      "affiliation": "Brink",
      "role": "Maintainer, GUI/Build System",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no public quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; focus remains build system/GUI.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 13,
      "name": "Suhas Daftuar",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Co-Founder, Protocol Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk; focused on P2P relay and mempool",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 14,
      "name": "Alex Morcos",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Co-Founder",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no personal quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; Chaincode published Shikhelman quantum report, but no personal stance located.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 15,
      "name": "Luke Dashjr",
      "affiliation": "Independent (Ocean Mining)",
      "role": "BIP Author, Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'Quantum isn't a real threat. Bitcoin has much bigger problems to address.' Outright dismissal.",
      "key_source": "https://x.com/LukeDashjr/status/2001602642179408164",
      "sources": [
        "https://x.com/LukeDashjr/status/2001602642179408164"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 16,
      "name": "Mark Erhardt (Murch)",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "BIP Editor, Research Engineer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Dismissive on CRQC timing ('make fun of me if we see a CRQC in less than 20 years'), but actively triaged BIP-360 test-vector PRs in Feb-Apr 2026 as BIP editor by routing review to authors and tracking v2 follow-up.",
      "key_source": "https://x.com/murchandamus/status/1989417359988462015",
      "sources": [
        "https://x.com/murchandamus/status/1989417359988462015",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/2102#issuecomment-3917291624",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/2102#issuecomment-4292734608"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 17,
      "name": "Ethan Heilman",
      "affiliation": "Iceberg Quantum",
      "role": "Researcher, BIP-360 co-author",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 8,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Most urgent advocate; co-author BIP-360 and BIP-347; 'near future' urgency; proposed STARK compression; estimates 7-year migration timeline; Apr 2026 BIP-360 review argued P2MR should preserve P2TR future-leaf-version upgrade behavior.",
      "key_source": "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/",
      "sources": [
        "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0347.mediawiki",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/2103#issuecomment-4353743142"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 18,
      "name": "Hunter Beast",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP-360 co-author, Quantum researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 5,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Original BIP-360 champion; multiple BIP iterations since 2024; 'ready in event of quantum emergency'",
      "key_source": "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670",
      "sources": [
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki",
        "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/proposing-a-p2qrh-bip-towards-a-quantum-resistant-soft-fork/956"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 19,
      "name": "Greg Sanders",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream",
      "role": "Engineer, Core Contributor",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'Proof will be in the pudding and I'll change my tune. Until then skepticism reigns.'",
      "key_source": "https://x.com/theinstagibbs/status/1995889077661430216",
      "sources": [
        "https://x.com/theinstagibbs/status/1995889077661430216"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 20,
      "name": "Eric Lombrozo",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP Author",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no public quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; score 1 confirmed.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 21,
      "name": "Johnson Lau",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "Protocol Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "May 2026 sweep found no public quantum/PQC statements in Google Groups bitcoindev, Delving Bitcoin, or BIP-360 PR threads; less active recently.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 22,
      "name": "Tim Ruffing",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream Research",
      "role": "Cryptographer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 4,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "2018 commit-reveal proposal for QC transition; 2025 paper proving Taproot PQ-secure as commitment scheme; methodical preparation without panic",
      "key_source": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1307",
      "sources": [
        "https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1307",
        "https://gist.github.com/harding/bfd094ab488fd3932df59452e5ec753f"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 23,
      "name": "Antoine Poinsot",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'The real material threat...is the perception of an imminent existential quantum threat by important stakeholders.' FUD is more dangerous than actual risk.",
      "key_source": "https://x.com/darosior/status/2002021021625225310",
      "sources": [
        "https://x.com/darosior/status/2002021021625225310"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 24,
      "name": "Jon Atack",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP Editor, Core Contributor",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public quantum urgency position found, but BIP-360 credits him among reviewers/contributors. Treat as documented technical review involvement, not public advocacy for an urgent PQ upgrade. May 14 sweep of bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103 found no new statements in the 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged.",
      "key_source": "https://bips.dev/360/",
      "sources": [
        "https://bips.dev/360/",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "rank": 25,
      "name": "Ruben Somsen",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP Editor",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Author of BIP-352 (Silent Payments), a proposal enabling non-interactive reusable payment codes without address reuse.",
      "key_source": "https://bips.dev/352/",
      "sources": [
        "https://bips.dev/352/",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0352.mediawiki"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 26,
      "name": "Olaoluwa Osuntokun",
      "affiliation": "Lightning Labs (CTO)",
      "role": "BIP Editor, Lightning Lead",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 3,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Escalated from research-engaged to proactive in May 2026 bitcoin-dev discussion by proposing a post-quantum path for BIP-324 transport encryption. Argues Bitcoin P2P transport is also quantum-vulnerable because BIP-324 uses ECDH, describes harvest-now-decrypt-later risk for encrypted peer traffic, and calls PQ BIP-324 a lower-hanging target worth pursuing immediately. Explores pure ML-KEM, hybrid ECDH+ML-KEM, classical-then-PQ upgrade, and obfuscated KEM tradeoffs; follow-up rejects TLS 1.3 as a poor fit for Bitcoin Core dependency, secp256k1, authentication, and oblivious-handshake constraints.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CAO3Pvs9U3prZJiDs0Ns7LSA07R8hM-GQou_FcTZZz-JUQpUYHw@mail.gmail.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CAO3Pvs_cetTGP54zDzJJGRPeN7gXrRYGZZYk4mRYnhJQnwotdA@mail.gmail.com/",
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CAO3Pvs8A0GLW-xdSHCKosjPqo7WSf-=YJ7F7s7t65RvtArcBEQ@mail.gmail.com/",
        "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/09/bitcoin-gets-first-working-prototype-of-quantum-resistant-wallet-rescue-tool",
        "https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/bitcoin-gets-first-working-prototype-of-quantum-resistant-wallet-rescue-tool/",
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CAO3Pvs9U3prZJiDs0Ns7LSA07R8hM-GQou_FcTZZz-JUQpUYHw@mail.gmail.com/",
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CAO3Pvs8i=pLP30nRh_iyjSRJXne19wNezmQmo=JAk8+E4uJPhg@mail.gmail.com/",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0324.mediawiki"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 27,
      "name": "Bryan Bishop (kanzure)",
      "affiliation": "Independent (Custodia Bank)",
      "role": "BIP Editor",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No quantum statements found across gnusha.org and diyhpl.us transcript archives",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 28,
      "name": "Fabian Jahr",
      "affiliation": "Brink",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 29,
      "name": "John Newbery",
      "affiliation": "Brink (co-founder)",
      "role": "Co-Founder & Executive Director",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 30,
      "name": "Mike Schmidt",
      "affiliation": "Brink (co-founder)",
      "role": "Co-Founder & Executive Director",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 31,
      "name": "Steve Lee",
      "affiliation": "Spiral (Block)",
      "role": "Lead, Bitcoin Development Funding",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 32,
      "name": "Sebastian Falbesoner",
      "affiliation": "Brink",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Working on FROST (quantum-tangential) but no quantum position statements",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 33,
      "name": "Dave Harding",
      "affiliation": "Brink/Optech",
      "role": "Bitcoin Optech Primary Writer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Optech covers quantum objectively (BIP-360, Chaincode report, SHRINCS/SLH-DSA); no personal advocacy position",
      "key_source": "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/",
      "sources": [
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2025/03/07/",
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2025/06/06/",
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2025/08/01/",
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2026/02/06/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13",
      "update_history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "score_before": 1,
          "score_after": 1,
          "source": "null-result sweep",
          "note": "May 2026 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103, and Google Groups bitcoindev. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-04-10 to 2026-05-13 window. Score unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "rank": 34,
      "name": "Niklas Gögge",
      "affiliation": "Brink",
      "role": "Core Developer, Security",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Focuses on Bitcoin Core security through full-system fuzzing and P2P infrastructure hardening. Developer of the Fuzzamoto framework and serves as a mentor for security-focused Brink interns. No public statements found regarding quantum risk or post-quantum cryptography migration.",
      "key_source": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/print/the-core-issue-keeping-bitcoin-core-secure",
      "sources": [
        "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/print/the-core-issue-keeping-bitcoin-core-secure",
        "https://brink.dev/programs",
        "https://github.com/dergoegge/fuzzamoto"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 35,
      "name": "Marco Falke",
      "affiliation": "MIT DCI + OpenSats",
      "role": "Former Maintainer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 36,
      "name": "Peter Todd",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "Protocol Developer, Security Researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'No-one is even close... the actual capabilities are laughable.' Also frames PQ push as potential NSA backdoor.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/aHuKIKqvCZl5rcEX@petertodd.org/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/aHuKIKqvCZl5rcEX@petertodd.org/",
        "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/uEaf4bj07rE"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 37,
      "name": "Antoine Riard",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "Security Researcher, Former Core Dev",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 3,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Cautious: wants better Shor's threat modeling per QC architecture; engaged reviewer but not pushing urgency; proposed practical defenses",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/87b4e402-39d8-46b0-8269-4f81fa501627n@googlegroups.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/87b4e402-39d8-46b0-8269-4f81fa501627n@googlegroups.com/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 38,
      "name": "Isabel Foxen Duke",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP-360 co-author",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 4,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "BIP-360 co-author (Dec 2025 rewrite); actively building quantum resistance path for Bitcoin",
      "key_source": "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki",
      "sources": [
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 39,
      "name": "Sjors Provoost",
      "affiliation": "Independent/OpenSats",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "'I don't think that in practice we can deploy a PCQ scheme without at the same time making a decision with regards to burn vs free-for-all.' Engaged in policy not just technical.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/ED96C777-5BBD-4ACE-8821-A53FDE8FA128@sprovoost.nl/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/ED96C777-5BBD-4ACE-8821-A53FDE8FA128@sprovoost.nl/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 40,
      "name": "Clara Shikhelman",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs (Head of Research)",
      "role": "Researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 4,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Co-authored Chaincode Labs' 2025 report “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing: Current Status and Future Directions,” estimating that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could put roughly 4–10 million BTC (about 20–50% of supply) at risk by deriving private keys from exposed public keys, and proposing dual-track ~2-year contingency and ~7-year comprehensive migration paths to post-quantum cryptography.",
      "key_source": "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf",
      "sources": [
        "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf",
        "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNqYU9TudRU"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 41,
      "name": "Alex Gladstein",
      "affiliation": "Human Rights Foundation (CSO)",
      "role": "Funding Leader, Advocate",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Published comprehensive HRF report \"The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin\" (Oct 31, 2025) warning 6.51M BTC vulnerable within 5 years. Supports BIP-360 as quantum-resistant framework. HRF Bitcoin Development Fund to sponsor PQ research, testnets, and migration tooling. Addressed burn-or-steal dilemma for vulnerable coins.",
      "key_source": "https://hrf.org/latest/the-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin/",
      "sources": [
        "https://hrf.org/latest/the-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 42,
      "name": "Adam Jonas",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs (CEO)",
      "role": "CEO",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Chaincode Labs under Jonas published the foundational 2025 study estimating 20-50% BTC supply vulnerability. Jonas now advocates for BIP-360 (P2QRH) as a critical multi-year 'protection layer' for the network.",
      "key_source": "https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-quantum-computing-risk",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-quantum-computing-risk",
        "https://www.theblock.co/post/388969/coinshares-says-only-10200-btc-face-real-quantum-risk-pushing-back-on-overblown-estimates"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 43,
      "name": "Neha Narula",
      "affiliation": "MIT DCI (Director)",
      "role": "Academic, Board Member",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Published compound probability framework April 3, 2026: P(CRQC by 2030) × P(Bitcoin fails to upgrade) ≥5% existential risk. Calls for prioritizing PQ design now. First non-BIP-360-author, non-Blockstream researcher to cross into the proactive camp.",
      "key_source": "https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html",
      "sources": [
        "https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 44,
      "name": "Karl-Johan Alm",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Distinguished hash-protected vs exposed-pubkey quantum risk in bitcoin-dev thread. Argued Taproot naked pubkeys give attackers unlimited time vs hashed keys where attacker must race transaction confirmation. Cautious position: recognizes real quantum threat vector in P2TR design. May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, and BIP activity found no new statements post-2021.",
      "key_source": "https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-March/018645.html",
      "sources": [
        "https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-March/018645.html"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 45,
      "name": "Carla Kirk-Cohen",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Engineer (Lightning/BOLT spec)",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 46,
      "name": "Mark Friedenbach",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "BIP Author",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Opposed Taproot activation explicitly over quantum risk. Argued P2TR exposes public keys on-chain, making ~6.25M BTC (1/3 of supply) immediately vulnerable to quantum theft. Called Taproot activation without PQ mitigation irresponsible. May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, and BIP activity found no new statements post-2021; source verified active.",
      "key_source": "https://freicoin.substack.com/p/why-im-against-taproot",
      "sources": [
        "https://freicoin.substack.com/p/why-im-against-taproot"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 47,
      "name": "Lisa Neigut",
      "affiliation": "Base58 / Bitcoin++",
      "role": "Conference Organizer, Lightning Engineer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 48,
      "name": "Ben Price",
      "affiliation": "OpenSats (Founder)",
      "role": "Funding Organization Leader",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 49,
      "name": "0xB10C",
      "affiliation": "Independent (Coinbase grant)",
      "role": "Network Observer, Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk. May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin (b10c.me), and BIP activity found no quantum-adjacent statements. Focus confirmed as Bitcoin Core dev, P2P network monitoring, and mining pool analysis.",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 50,
      "name": "Matias Furszyfer",
      "affiliation": "Chaincode Labs",
      "role": "Core Developer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 1,
      "pq_work_volume": 0,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "No public statements on quantum risk",
      "key_source": null,
      "sources": [],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 51,
      "name": "Matt Corallo",
      "affiliation": "Spiral",
      "role": "Protocol Developer, LDK Lead",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 3,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Proposed OP_HASHBASEDSIG (SPHINCS+) on bitcoin-dev, then laid out a concrete two-step quantum upgrade path on Unchained podcast (Feb 22, 2026): enable PQ key commitments via soft fork first, disable legacy spend paths later. Actively pushing back on the no-one-is-building narrative, noting PQ discussion is now 30-40% of mailing list posts.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/43afd5bb-244e-4698-ba3d-139efa2c2058@mattcorallo.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/43afd5bb-244e-4698-ba3d-139efa2c2058@mattcorallo.com/",
        "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-do-bitcoiners-do-about-quantum-with-matt-corallo/id1415720320?i=1000749245854"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 52,
      "name": "Adam Back",
      "affiliation": "Blockstream (CEO)",
      "role": "CEO, Cryptographer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Shifted from dismissive ('20-40 years, ridiculously early') to active preparation (Apr 8 CoinDesk): 'prepare Bitcoin and give people a decade to migrate keys to quantum-ready format.' Revealed 20-person Blockstream PQ research team building on Liquid as proving ground. NIST standards adoption underway. No longer dismissing -- actively building.",
      "key_source": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/08/bitcoin-s-quantum-threat-is-distant-but-migration-clock-is-ticking-says-adam-back-says",
      "sources": [
        "https://x.com/adam3us/status/1989721899991986374",
        "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/08/bitcoin-s-quantum-threat-is-distant-but-migration-clock-is-ticking-says-adam-back-says",
        "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/adam-back-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 53,
      "name": "John Martinis",
      "affiliation": "Qolab (CTO), ex-Google Quantum AI",
      "role": "Nobel Laureate (2025 Physics), White House PCAST member",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Called Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography \"the smaller, easier algorithms. The low-hanging fruit\" for quantum attacks (Benzinga, April 7 2026). Stated \"Bitcoin is a little bit different, which is why people should be thinking about this right now\" and \"the crypto community has to plan for this. It's a serious issue.\" Suggested a 5-10 year window. Led Google quantum supremacy demonstration (Sycamore, 2019). Shared 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics. Joined White House PCAST March 26 2026. CTO and co-founder of Qolab.",
      "key_source": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/04/51687930/nobel-physicist-warns-bitcoin-could-be-cracked-in-minutes-but-the-community-has-5-10-years-to-act",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/04/51687930/nobel-physicist-warns-bitcoin-could-be-cracked-in-minutes-but-the-community-has-5-10-years-to-act",
        "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/03/26/john-martinis-nobel-prize-winning-physicist-joins-white-house-science-and-technology-panel/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 54,
      "name": "Jameson Lopp",
      "affiliation": "Casa (Co-founder/CTO)",
      "role": "BIP-361 author, Security Engineer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 4,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authored BIP-361 (PR #1895): ties legacy-signature sunset rules to supply inflation guardrails. Explicitly frames quantum migration as both cryptographic and monetary policy question. Active BIP contributor since July 2025.",
      "key_source": "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1895",
      "sources": [
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1895",
        "https://github.com/jlopp"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 55,
      "name": "Avihu Levy",
      "affiliation": "StarkWare (CPO)",
      "role": "Chief Product Officer, Cryptographer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 5,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Published Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB) on Apr 9, 2026 -- first scheme enabling quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions without any protocol changes. Uses hash-based proofs (RIPEMD-160 grinding) instead of ECDSA, achieving 118-bit pre-image resistance against quantum attack. Cost: $75-200 GPU compute per transaction. No soft fork, no BIP required. Also co-authored BIP-360.",
      "key_source": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/10/quantum-safe-bitcoin-now-possible-without-a-soft-fork-but-costs-usd200-a-pop",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/10/quantum-safe-bitcoin-now-possible-without-a-soft-fork-but-costs-usd200-a-pop",
        "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-could-be-quantum-safe",
        "https://starkware.co/blog/bitcoins-quantum-proposal-features-starkware-co-author/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-10"
    },
    {
      "rank": 57,
      "name": "Adam Gibson (waxwing / AdamISZ)",
      "affiliation": "Independent (JoinMarket)",
      "role": "Bitcoin privacy researcher, cryptographer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 2,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Opposes mandatory coin-freezing on principled grounds. In the Algorithm Agility bitcoin-dev thread (Apr 2026): ‘We won’t know for sure when the world shifts from outputs are safe to claimable by anyone.’ Argues Bitcoin’s value derives from immutable property rights — ‘if you locked a utxo with a certain ruleset in the past, that ruleset will still be active.’ Acknowledges quantum uncertainty but maintains principles outweigh safety-based arguments for coin freezing. Advocates opt-in PQ solutions (P2MR) only. Creator of JoinMarket, Bitcoin privacy researcher.",
      "key_source": "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/7jkVS1K9WLo/m/wY6tgodKAQAJ",
      "sources": [
        "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/7jkVS1K9WLo/m/wY6tgodKAQAJ",
        "https://github.com/AdamISZ"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-19"
    },
    {
      "rank": 56,
      "name": "Echelon Labs Research",
      "affiliation": "Echelon Labs Research (btcpqresearch)",
      "role": "Post-quantum research collective",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Published BIP Draft 'Witness Version 3: ML-DSA-65 Post-Quantum Key-Path Spending' on DelvingBitcoin on Apr 16, 2026, with a full working reference implementation (btcpqresearch/bip-pq-witness-v3) applying cleanly against bitcoin/bitcoin at commit c97ac44c. Proposes OP_3 + bech32m bc1r outputs, 5,261-byte witness stacks (3,309-byte sig + 1,952-byte pubkey), PQSighash tagged hash (epoch 1, ext_flag 3), SCRIPT_VERIFY_WITNESS_V3 flag, deployable as BIP 9 soft fork. Offered as a candidate PQ scheme for BIP-361 Phase B migration.",
      "key_source": "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/bip-draft-witness-version-3-ml-dsa-65-post-quantum-key-path-spending/2422",
      "sources": [
        "https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/bip-draft-witness-version-3-ml-dsa-65-post-quantum-key-path-spending/2422",
        "https://github.com/btcpqresearch/bip-pq-witness-v3/blob/7bbfb294337201eb7273692110b1d137e07d3e40/bip-pq-witness-v3.mediawiki",
        "https://github.com/btcpqresearch/bip-pq-witness-v3",
        "https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-22"
    },
    {
      "rank": 58,
      "name": "Giancarlo Lelli",
      "affiliation": "Independent",
      "role": "Quantum cryptography researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Won Project Eleven Q-Day Prize (1 BTC) on Apr 24, 2026 for breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key on cloud-accessible IBM quantum hardware — 512× improvement over the prior 6-bit record (Tippeconnic, Sep 2025). Used a Shor's algorithm variant after a year of independent work. The largest public demonstration of the ECC attack class that threatens Bitcoin's secp256k1. While 256-bit keys remain out of reach, the scaling trajectory is the signal: specialized hardware requirements are collapsing faster than 2024 projections.",
      "key_source": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/24/project-eleven-q-day-prize-quantum-ecc-attack/",
      "sources": [
        "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/24/project-eleven-q-day-prize-quantum-ecc-attack/",
        "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/24/researcher-wins-1-bitcoin-bounty-for-largest-quantum-attack-on-underlying-tech",
        "https://www.theblock.co/post/398792/researcher-breaks-15-bit-elliptic-curve-key-wins-1-bitcoin-bounty-project-eleven",
        "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/project-eleven-awards-1-btc-q-day-prize-for-largest-quantum-attack-on-elliptic-curve-cryptography-to-date-302752439.html"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-26"
    },
    {
      "rank": 59,
      "name": "Craig Gidney (Google Quantum AI)",
      "affiliation": "Google Quantum AI",
      "role": "Quantum cryptanalysis researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 5,
      "pq_work_volume": 3,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Lead/co-author of arXiv 2603.28846 (Mar 2026, Babbush, Gidney et al.), the foundational Google Quantum AI paper that compressed the secp256k1 ECDLP qubit threshold to under 500,000 physical qubits — projecting a ~9 minute crack window for any pubkey-revealed BTC. v2 (Apr 15) further distinguished fast-clock (superconducting/photonic) from slow-clock (ion-trap/neutral-atom) architectures, quantifying on-spend mempool attacks within mempool-confirmation latency. Gidney's separately published 10% CRQC-by-2030 probability estimate is the explicit anchor cited in Neha Narula's score-update post; Babbush threshold figures (1,200 logical qubits / under 90M Toffoli gates) are the de facto reference standard now adopted across the bitcoin-dev PQ thread, BIP-360/BIP-361 drafts, and Bitcoin Optech newsletters.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846",
        "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.28846",
        "https://research.google/people/craig-gidney/",
        "https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 60,
      "name": "Oriole (IACR ePrint 2026/793)",
      "affiliation": "Academic — lattice cryptography research",
      "role": "Post-quantum threshold signature scheme",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "IACR ePrint 2026/793 'Oriole — Adaptively Secure Partially Non-Interactive Threshold Signatures from Lattices' proposes a lattice-based threshold signature scheme with adaptive security under standard LWE assumptions, skipping FROST's trusted-setup overhead. Partial non-interactivity (NI pre-signing, interactive finalize) maps directly to Bitcoin multi-sig flows where co-signers go online at different times. Positioned as a deployment-ready candidate for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig design space, which currently lacks a lattice-tier threshold scheme. Tradeoff: ~1.5x signature size vs Falcon, making witness-bloat the primary deployment concern.",
      "key_source": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/793",
      "sources": [
        "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/793",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0360.mediawiki",
        "https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2026/04/24/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-26"
    },
    {
      "rank": 61,
      "name": "Chevignard, Fouque, Schrottenloher (INRIA)",
      "affiliation": "INRIA — quantum cryptanalysis research",
      "role": "Academic quantum cryptanalysts",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "EUROCRYPT 2026 paper (IACR ePrint 2026/280) 'Reducing the Number of Qubits in Quantum ECDLP' presents prime-curve ECDLP quantum circuits achieving 3.12n + o(n) qubits versus 5n + o(n) prior (Häner 2020). For P-256: 1,193 logical qubits — a 44% reduction. Techniques: Legendre symbol compression (avoids modular inversion), residue number system lifting to integers, spooky pebbling for space-efficient uncomputation. P-256 now breaks with 42% fewer logical qubits than RSA-3072. Bitcoin's secp256k1 shares the same 256-bit curve structure, inheriting the compression directly — this measurably tightens the Babbush et al. <500K physical-qubit ECDLP-256 budget.",
      "key_source": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/280",
      "sources": [
        "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/280",
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-26"
    },
    {
      "rank": 62,
      "name": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ — Walking Cat)",
      "affiliation": "IonQ — trapped-ion fault-tolerant computing research",
      "role": "Quantum hardware architects",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "arXiv 2604.19481 (Delfosse et al., 21 Apr 2026) — 'Walking Cat Architecture': a full-stack trapped-ion fault-tolerant blueprint with compiler, QEC protocols, micro-architecture, fast decoder, and end-to-end simulations. The [[102,22,9]] LDPC code packs 22 logical qubits into 102 physical qubits — a 2,514-physical system yields 110 logical qubits running at ~1M T-gates per day. Distinct hardware path from neutral-atom (QuEra) and IBM heavy-hex; provides a second viable trajectory toward the Babbush et al. <500K-physical-qubit / <1,200-logical-qubit secp256k1 ECDLP break threshold. Delfosse (ex-Microsoft, now IonQ) leads a complete arch+code+decoder design targeting hundreds of logical qubits running millions of logical gates on near-term ion traps.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19481",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19481",
        "https://www.ionq.com/blog/blueprint-for-fault-tolerant-trapped-ion-quantum-computing-the-walking-cat-architecture",
        "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/23/ionq-researchers-say-walking-cat-blueprint-could-lead-to-machines-that-run-millions-of-gates-on-thousands-of-qubits/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-04-25"
    },
    {
      "rank": 63,
      "name": "Postquant Labs / Quip Network",
      "affiliation": "Postquant Labs — Arch Network Bitcoin smart-contract layer",
      "role": "Post-quantum Bitcoin wallet and SDK team",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Launched Quip.Network on Apr 28, 2026: a no-soft-fork Bitcoin wallet and SDK that layers WOTS+ (Winternitz One-Time Signature) hash-based signatures through Arch Network's Bitcoin-native smart-contract layer while retaining existing ECDSA custody. CTO Dr. Richard Carback frames the design as reducing the exposed-public-key quantum attack window to roughly two Bitcoin blocks (~20 minutes), aimed at P2PK and reused-P2PKH UTXOs while BIP-360/361 ratification remains unresolved. This is not a consensus upgrade and still depends on adoption/Arch integration, but it is a concrete deployable mitigation path with live developer tooling rather than another roadmap-only proposal.",
      "key_source": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/28/emb-2-pm-utc-new-wallet-offers-way-to-tackle-bitcoin-s-quantum-risk-without-a-fork",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/28/emb-2-pm-utc-new-wallet-offers-way-to-tackle-bitcoin-s-quantum-risk-without-a-fork",
        "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quipnetwork-unveils-quantum-resistant-bitcoin-protection-as-coin-freeze-debate-divides-developers-302755947.html",
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "rank": 64,
      "name": "Spyros Tserkis, Muhammad Umer, Eleftherios Mastorakis, Dimitris G. Angelakis",
      "affiliation": "Academic (Quantum Physics Research)",
      "role": "Quantum computing researchers",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.25861 introducing constant-depth multi-controlled Toffoli gates via teleportation. Eliminates depth scaling in quantum arithmetic circuits, reducing execution time for Shor-based ECDLP attacks on secp256k1 while maintaining linear ancilla overhead. Directly compresses the circuit-depth budget in Babbush et al.'s <500K physical-qubit ECDLP attack model.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25861",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25861"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "rank": 65,
      "name": "Debora Ramacciotti, Martin Steinbach, Bence Temesi, Andreea-Iulia Lefterovici, Antonio F. Rotundo",
      "affiliation": "Academic (Quantum Computing Research)",
      "role": "Quantum computing researchers",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.24973 introducing gate-merging optimizations for Grover-Rudolph state preparation, achieving ~22% reduction in CNOT gate counts. Improves efficiency of quantum search subroutines used in ECDLP attack pipelines by lowering circuit depth and coherence requirements.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.24973",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.24973"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "rank": 66,
      "name": "Xiang Fang, Ming Wang, Yue Wu, Sharanya Prabhu, Dean Tullsen, Narasinga Rao Miniskar, Frank Mueller, Travis Humble, Yufei Ding",
      "affiliation": "Academic / National Labs (Quantum Computing Research)",
      "role": "Quantum computing researchers",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.21472 introducing LightStim, a framework that automates Detector Error Model (DEM) construction for quantum error correction protocols. Enables faster evaluation and prototyping of fault-tolerant quantum systems by removing manual annotation bottlenecks — accelerating the path to practical QEC at scale.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21472",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21472"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "rank": 67,
      "name": "Jonas Schnelli",
      "affiliation": "Independent; former Bitcoin Core maintainer",
      "role": "BIP-324 author, former Bitcoin Core maintainer",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "BIP-324 co-author who endorsed a concrete post-quantum upgrade path for Bitcoin P2P transport on the May 2026 bitcoin-dev BIP-324 PQ thread. Favors classical-then-PQ upgrade: run ML-KEM inside the established v2 ChaCha20Poly1305 channel to preserve byte-0 pseudorandomness while adding hybrid security against harvest-now-decrypt-later quantum adversaries. Cautious about traffic-shape leakage and DoS details, but points to OpenSSH mlkem768x25519-sha256 as a practical combiner reference.",
      "key_source": "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/547ADFCA-2BB1-4E16-A26A-C92262EBBD84@gmail.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/547ADFCA-2BB1-4E16-A26A-C92262EBBD84@gmail.com/",
        "https://bips.dev/324/"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 68,
      "name": "Han Luo, Ziyi Yang, Ziruo Wang, Yuexin Su, Tongyang Li",
      "affiliation": "Academic (Quantum Cryptanalysis Research)",
      "role": "Quantum ECDLP resource-estimation researchers",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.02311 introducing a space-efficient quantum algorithm for elliptic-curve discrete logarithms with concrete resource estimation. Their reversible modular-inversion construction reduces the 256-bit prime-field ECDLP logical-qubit estimate to 1,333, down from 2,124 in the prior low-width Haener et al. implementation. This is a direct Bitcoin-relevant secp256k1 pressure signal: it narrows the resource gap for Shor-class ECDLP attacks while keeping the discussion grounded in explicit circuit counts rather than generic quantum timelines.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02311",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02311"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-11"
    },
    {
      "rank": 69,
      "name": "Cain, Xu, Bluvstein et al. (Caltech/Harvard)",
      "affiliation": "Academic neutral-atom quantum computing research",
      "role": "Quantum hardware and Shor algorithm researchers",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2603.28627 'Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits' (Mar 2026). Demonstrates that a ~26,000-physical-qubit neutral-atom system could break P-256 elliptic curve cryptography within days. Bitcoin's secp256k1 shares the same 256-bit field size, inheriting the result directly. Establishes a third viable hardware trajectory toward cryptographically relevant ECDLP attacks, alongside superconducting and trapped-ion approaches.",
      "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627",
      "sources": [
        "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "rank": 70,
      "name": "Tadge Dryja",
      "affiliation": "MIT DCI (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Digital Currency Initiative)",
      "role": "Lightning Network co-inventor, Bitcoin researcher",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 4,
      "pq_work_volume": 2,
      "notable": true,
      "summary": "Proposed a post-quantum commit/reveal soft fork on the bitcoin-dev mailing list (May 28, 2025), framing it as a minimal emergency contingency triggered only when quantum capability is proven. Dryja's \"Fawkescoin variant\" separates transaction broadcasting into a commit phase (hash only) and a reveal phase, preventing a quantum-capable adversary from front-running mempool transactions. He explicitly defers mandatory activation until a 'proof of quantum computer' event, acknowledging deep community uncertainty about QC timelines. A second proposal, 'Lifeboat,' extends the concept without requiring a soft fork. Treats quantum as a real but probability-uncertain threat warranting concrete contingency design now.",
      "key_source": "https://mailing-list.bitcoindevs.xyz/bitcoindev/cc2f8908-f6fa-45aa-93d7-6f926f9ba627n@googlegroups.com/",
      "sources": [
        "https://mailing-list.bitcoindevs.xyz/bitcoindev/cc2f8908-f6fa-45aa-93d7-6f926f9ba627n@googlegroups.com/",
        "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bzOwYPf1yo"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "rank": 71,
      "name": "Jeremy Rubin",
      "affiliation": "Independent; former MIT DCI; Bitcoin researcher",
      "role": "Bitcoin researcher, BIP-119 (OP_CTV) author",
      "quantum_urgency_score": 3,
      "pq_work_volume": 1,
      "notable": false,
      "summary": "Proposed a concrete quantum-proofing technique for Bitcoin using OP_CAT and Lamport signatures in a 2021 blog post. Rubin's scheme has the ECDSA signature itself signed by a Lamport (quantum-safe) signature, so even if a quantum computer derives the ECDSA private key it cannot malleate the transaction content. Notes OP_CAT was in Bitcoin until 2010. Frames quantum resistance as achievable at the script layer without consensus changes requiring new signature algorithms. Tone is exploratory and technically constructive rather than urgent; treats quantum as a real long-horizon risk worth engineering solutions for now.",
      "key_source": "https://rubin.io/blog/2021/07/06/quantum-bitcoin/",
      "sources": [
        "https://rubin.io/blog/2021/07/06/quantum-bitcoin/",
        "https://mitbitcoinexpo.org/blog/quantum-migration-arguments"
      ],
      "last_verified": "2026-05-14"
    }
  ]
}