diff --git a/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerEmptyState.ts b/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerEmptyState.ts
index 868fcd69a..1cb3a9290 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerEmptyState.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerEmptyState.ts
@@ -105,12 +105,11 @@ export function resolveModelPickerEmptyState(input: {
     };
   }
 
-  if (input.activeTabKind === "favorites") {
-    return { lines: ["No favorite models"], showSettingsAction: false };
-  }
-
   // Nothing to pick and every provider the user enabled is unusable: name
-  // each one instead of leaving them to guess which is broken.
+  // each one instead of leaving them to guess which is broken. This wins
+  // over the Favorites empty text because a cold install has no usable
+  // provider tabs at all, so Favorites is the only tab the picker can open
+  // on and its bare "No favorite models" would hide the one actionable fact.
   const enabledProviders = input.providers.filter((provider) => provider.enabled);
   const unavailableProviders = enabledProviders.filter(
     (provider) => getModelPickerProviderAvailability(provider.snapshot) !== "available",
@@ -124,5 +123,9 @@ export function resolveModelPickerEmptyState(input: {
     };
   }
 
+  if (input.activeTabKind === "favorites") {
+    return { lines: ["No favorite models"], showSettingsAction: false };
+  }
+
   return { lines: ["No models available"], showSettingsAction: false };
 }
diff --git a/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerSearch.test.ts b/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerSearch.test.ts
index b44bb0512..c017e77b1 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerSearch.test.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/components/chat/modelPickerSearch.test.ts
@@ -246,13 +246,34 @@ describe("resolveModelPickerEmptyState", () => {
     ).toEqual({ lines: ["No models available"], showSettingsAction: false });
   });
 
-  it("keeps the favorites tab message provider-agnostic", () => {
+  it("keeps the favorites tab message while a provider is still usable", () => {
     expect(
       resolveModelPickerEmptyState({
         searchQuery: "",
         activeTabKind: "favorites",
-        providers: [CLAUDE_MISSING],
+        providers: [CODEX_READY, CLAUDE_MISSING],
       }),
     ).toEqual({ lines: ["No favorite models"], showSettingsAction: false });
   });
+
+  it("explains providers from the favorites tab on a cold install", () => {
+    // A cold install has no usable provider tabs, so Favorites is the only
+    // tab the picker can open on; the provider guidance must win there too.
+    expect(
+      resolveModelPickerEmptyState({
+        searchQuery: "",
+        activeTabKind: "favorites",
+        providers: [
+          makeProvider("codex", "Codex", {
+            status: "warning",
+            auth: { status: "unauthenticated" },
+          }),
+          CLAUDE_MISSING,
+        ],
+      }),
+    ).toEqual({
+      lines: ["Codex · Not authenticated", "Claude · Not found"],
+      showSettingsAction: true,
+    });
+  });
 });