diff --git a/idleon-hoops.user.js b/idleon-hoops.user.js index 6da9cdb..bdb07a6 100644 --- a/idleon-hoops.user.js +++ b/idleon-hoops.user.js @@ -114,6 +114,24 @@ // empirical correction fitted on 11 flights from one player has to earn // more than 3% before it goes in. // + // It is worse than useless, and the way it hides is worth writing down. + // Adding a second session's flights and pooling the two made the same + // correction look like a 31% win -- 75.2px down to 51.8px -- which is + // exactly the kind of number that gets a change shipped. Split by session + // it evaporates: + // + // session A (n=8) 54.7px -> 53.0px -3% + // session B (n=7) 61.4px -> 75.1px +23% WORSE + // pooled (n=15) 75.2px -> 51.8px -31% + // + // The tell is that pooling made the CONSTANT model worse than it was in + // either session on its own, which can only happen if pooling introduced + // variance neither session had. The linear term then soaks that up, and the + // leave-one-out score rewards it for absorbing an artefact of pooling + // rather than for predicting anything. Per-session the parameters agree to + // within .21 of a standard deviation, so there is no real drift to model. + // Score a per-shot correction per session, never across pooled sessions. + // // The ~55px of arc height at the rim is therefore the real accuracy ceiling // today, and it is per-shot noise in L and R rather than anything to do // with the anchor. Averaging across shots is what actually removes it, diff --git a/idleon-suite.user.js b/idleon-suite.user.js index a7a2ba2..8cc7b81 100644 --- a/idleon-suite.user.js +++ b/idleon-suite.user.js @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ // ==UserScript== // @name IdleOn Helper Suite // @namespace nativerobot -// @version 1.9 +// @version 1.10 // @downloadURL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/averagenative/idleon-userscripts/main/idleon-suite.user.js // @updateURL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/averagenative/idleon-userscripts/main/idleon-suite.user.js // @description All-in-one: autoclicker + Hoops, Fishing and Darts minigame helpers for Legends of IdleOn, each one individually switchable @@ -645,6 +645,24 @@ // empirical correction fitted on 11 flights from one player has to earn // more than 3% before it goes in. // + // It is worse than useless, and the way it hides is worth writing down. + // Adding a second session's flights and pooling the two made the same + // correction look like a 31% win -- 75.2px down to 51.8px -- which is + // exactly the kind of number that gets a change shipped. Split by session + // it evaporates: + // + // session A (n=8) 54.7px -> 53.0px -3% + // session B (n=7) 61.4px -> 75.1px +23% WORSE + // pooled (n=15) 75.2px -> 51.8px -31% + // + // The tell is that pooling made the CONSTANT model worse than it was in + // either session on its own, which can only happen if pooling introduced + // variance neither session had. The linear term then soaks that up, and the + // leave-one-out score rewards it for absorbing an artefact of pooling + // rather than for predicting anything. Per-session the parameters agree to + // within .21 of a standard deviation, so there is no real drift to model. + // Score a per-shot correction per session, never across pooled sessions. + // // The ~55px of arc height at the rim is therefore the real accuracy ceiling // today, and it is per-shot noise in L and R rather than anything to do // with the anchor. Averaging across shots is what actually removes it,