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feat: add worked-example scenario and sensitivity report #353

Description

@edithatogo

Summary

Add a reusable scenario/sensitivity report pattern for worked examples so tutorials can show how assumptions, classification provenance, LOS, ICU, and overlay choices affect results without implying authoritative real-world conclusions.

Linked Conductor track

conductor/tracks/public_clinical_dataset_worked_example_20260704

Why this is separate

The MIMIC-IV Demo worked example can include a bounded scenario appendix using synthetic overlays, but reusable scenario generation and reporting should be shared infrastructure for future examples.

Acceptance criteria

  • Define a scenario manifest shape for baseline, synthetic overlay, local precomputed AR-DRG, and blocked/no-provenance cases.
  • Generate comparison outputs that show changed NWAU values, changed assumptions, and support-state caveats.
  • Include explicit warnings that synthetic-overlay scenarios are educational only.
  • Add tests using tiny committed fixtures and existing acute weights.

Dependencies

  • Public Clinical Dataset Worked Example.
  • Provenance/data-quality report contract if implemented.

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