diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index aceb7b4..73828d7 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ OSSRank must stay honest:
 
 - Use official GitHub APIs only; never scrape GitHub HTML.
 - Treat GitHub profile location text as unverified free text.
-- Rank observed public signals, not private contributions. V1 contributor pages prioritize one-year GitHub GraphQL commit totals, one-year public pull request totals, repository count, and followers.
+- Rank observed public signals, not private contributions. Contributor pages prioritize one-year GitHub GraphQL commit totals, one-year public pull request totals, repository count, and followers. Raw commit totals stay visible, but ranking uses a per-user burst-adjusted commit signal when a short anomalous daily spike exceeds that contributor's adaptive baseline cap.
 - Preserve last-known-good data when refreshes fail.
 - Keep the product flow simple: choose a country, view contributors, sort by commits/public PRs/repos/followers, or view the single projects page.
 - Avoid claims of complete global coverage, endorsement, nationality, employment status, or identity attributes.
diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index 619c922..008807e 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -9,12 +9,13 @@
     "refresh:fixtures": "tsx scripts/refresh-fixtures.ts",
     "validate:data": "tsx scripts/validate-data.ts data/latest",
     "build": "tsx scripts/build-site.ts --data data/latest --history data/history --out dist && pnpm run build:cli",
-    "test": "pnpm run check && pnpm run refresh:fixtures && pnpm run validate:data && pnpm run build && pnpm run smoke:cli",
+    "test": "pnpm run test:burst && pnpm run check && pnpm run refresh:fixtures && pnpm run validate:data && pnpm run build && pnpm run smoke:cli",
     "dev": "pnpm run build && npx --yes serve dist",
     "deploy:cloudflare": "pnpm run build && wrangler pages deploy dist --project-name ossrank",
     "build:cli": "tsc -p tsconfig.cli.json && node scripts/fix-cli-shebang.cjs",
     "smoke:cli": "pnpm run build:cli && node dist-cli/cli.js rank contributors --input fixtures/contributors.json --limit 2 --format table && node dist-cli/cli.js token-check --token demo && ! node dist-cli/cli.js rank contributors --input fixtures/contributors.json --limit nope",
-    "refresh:live": "tsx src/cli.ts refresh --mode live --limit ${OSSRANK_LIMIT:-20}"
+    "refresh:live": "tsx src/cli.ts refresh --mode live --limit ${OSSRANK_LIMIT:-20}",
+    "test:burst": "tsx scripts/verify-burst-adjustment.ts"
   },
   "dependencies": {},
   "devDependencies": {
diff --git a/scripts/build-site.ts b/scripts/build-site.ts
index 12ba6a2..cf396ec 100644
--- a/scripts/build-site.ts
+++ b/scripts/build-site.ts
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { mkdir, readFile, readdir, rm, writeFile, cp } from 'node:fs/promises';
 import { dirname, join } from 'node:path';
 import { escapeHtml } from '../src/lib/html.js';
-import { legitimacyScore, momentumScore } from '../src/lib/ranking.js';
+import { contributorCommitSignal, legitimacyScore, momentumScore } from '../src/lib/ranking.js';
 import type { Manifest, ManifestShard, RankedContributor, RankedProject, RankingSnapshot } from '../src/lib/types.js';
 
 const args = new Map<string, string>();
@@ -138,9 +138,17 @@ function rankMovementBadge(entry: RankedContributor): string {
   return `<span class="rank-delta rank-delta-down" title="Down ${down} place${down === 1 ? '' : 's'} since the previous weekly OSSRank snapshot">↓${down}</span>`;
 }
 
+function commitMetric(entry: RankedContributor): string {
+  const raw = entry.observed_public_commits ?? entry.public_contributions;
+  const adjusted = contributorCommitSignal(entry);
+  if (!entry.contribution_burst_adjustment) return `<strong class="metric">${raw.toLocaleString()}</strong>`;
+  const adjustment = entry.contribution_burst_adjustment;
+  return `<strong class="metric">${adjusted.toLocaleString()}</strong><small title="Raw GitHub total: ${raw.toLocaleString()}. Adjusted because ${adjustment.capped_days} day${adjustment.capped_days === 1 ? '' : 's'} exceeded the per-user burst cap.">raw ${raw.toLocaleString()} · burst-adjusted</small>`;
+}
+
 function contributorTable(snapshot: RankingSnapshot<RankedContributor>): string {
   const rows = [...snapshot.entries].sort((a, b) => a.rank - b.rank);
-  return `<div class="table-wrap"><table id="contributors" aria-label="Top GitHub contributors in ${escapeHtml(snapshot.name)}"><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Movement</th><th>Username</th><th><button data-sort="commits">Commits (1y)</button></th><th><button data-sort="prs">Public PRs (1y)</button></th><th><button data-sort="repos">Repos</button></th><th><button data-sort="followers">Followers</button></th><th>Location</th><th>Discovery</th></tr></thead><tbody>${rows.map((entry) => `<tr data-commits="${entry.observed_public_commits ?? 0}" data-prs="${entry.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0}" data-repos="${entry.public_repos ?? 0}" data-followers="${entry.followers}"><td class="rank"><span class="rank-pill">#${entry.rank}</span></td><td>${rankMovementBadge(entry)}</td><td><div class="contributor-name"><a href="${entry.profile_url}" ${externalLinkAttrs}>${escapeHtml(entry.login)}</a></div><small>${escapeHtml(entry.name ?? 'Public GitHub profile')}</small></td><td><strong class="metric">${(entry.observed_public_commits ?? 0).toLocaleString()}</strong></td><td><strong class="metric">${(entry.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0).toLocaleString()}</strong></td><td>${(entry.public_repos ?? 0).toLocaleString()}</td><td>${entry.followers.toLocaleString()}</td><td>${escapeHtml(entry.location ?? 'Unknown')}<small>${escapeHtml(entry.location_confidence ?? 'unknown')}</small></td><td>${statusPill(entry.discovered_by_query ?? 'query', 'source')}</td></tr>`).join('')}</tbody></table></div><script>
+  return `<div class="table-wrap"><table id="contributors" aria-label="Top GitHub contributors in ${escapeHtml(snapshot.name)}"><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Movement</th><th>Username</th><th><button data-sort="commits">Ranked commits (1y)</button></th><th><button data-sort="prs">Public PRs (1y)</button></th><th><button data-sort="repos">Repos</button></th><th><button data-sort="followers">Followers</button></th><th>Location</th><th>Discovery</th></tr></thead><tbody>${rows.map((entry) => `<tr data-commits="${contributorCommitSignal(entry)}" data-prs="${entry.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0}" data-repos="${entry.public_repos ?? 0}" data-followers="${entry.followers}"><td class="rank"><span class="rank-pill">#${entry.rank}</span></td><td>${rankMovementBadge(entry)}</td><td><div class="contributor-name"><a href="${entry.profile_url}" ${externalLinkAttrs}>${escapeHtml(entry.login)}</a></div><small>${escapeHtml(entry.name ?? 'Public GitHub profile')}</small></td><td>${commitMetric(entry)}</td><td><strong class="metric">${(entry.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0).toLocaleString()}</strong></td><td>${(entry.public_repos ?? 0).toLocaleString()}</td><td>${entry.followers.toLocaleString()}</td><td>${escapeHtml(entry.location ?? 'Unknown')}<small>${escapeHtml(entry.location_confidence ?? 'unknown')}</small></td><td>${statusPill(entry.discovered_by_query ?? 'query', 'source')}</td></tr>`).join('')}</tbody></table></div><script>
 const table = document.querySelector('#contributors');
 const tbody = table?.querySelector('tbody');
 function sortRows(metric) {
@@ -175,7 +183,7 @@ function contributorPage(snapshot: RankingSnapshot<RankedContributor>, options?:
   const description = isRising ? 'Rising GitHub contributors ranked by public activity relative to audience size.' : `Top GitHub contributors ${scope}, sorted by public commit activity with public PR, repo, and follower columns.`;
   const rawPath = isGlobal ? `/data/latest/global-${snapshot.slug}.json` : isRising ? `/data/latest/rising-${snapshot.slug}.json` : `/data/latest/countries-${snapshot.slug}.json`;
   const path = options?.path ?? (isGlobal ? 'global' : isRising ? 'rising' : `countries/${snapshot.slug}/top-github-contributors`);
-  return layout(isRising ? 'Rising GitHub contributors' : `Top GitHub contributors ${scope}`, description, `<main class="page"><section class="hero compact"><p class="eyebrow">${isRising ? 'Rising contributors' : isGlobal ? 'Global rankings' : 'Country rankings'}</p><div class="hero-shell"><div class="hero-copy"><h1>${isRising ? 'Rising GitHub contributors.' : `Top GitHub contributors ${escapeHtml(scope)}.`}</h1><p>${isRising ? 'A discovery board for active maintainers and builders whose public commits, PRs, and repositories are strong relative to follower count.' : 'Movement compares each contributor’s current rank with their previous OSSRank measurement when a prior snapshot exists. Click the column buttons to sort by public PRs, repos, or followers instead.'}</p><div class="stats"><span>${snapshot.entries.length} contributors</span><span>${snapshot.candidate_count} candidates checked</span><span>${updateCadenceLabel}</span><span>Latest ${escapeHtml(snapshot.generated_at.slice(0, 10))}</span></div></div><aside class="hero-card"><h2>${isGlobal ? 'How to use this board' : 'Signal at a glance'}</h2><ul><li><span>Default rank</span> <strong>Commits in the last year</strong></li><li><span>Trend</span> <strong>Movement vs previous snapshot</strong></li><li><span>Scope</span> <strong>${escapeHtml(isGlobal ? 'Observed global sample' : isRising ? 'Emerging contributors' : snapshot.name)}</strong></li></ul></aside></div></section><section class="panel">${contributorTable(snapshot)}<p class="note">Commit and PR counts are one-year public contribution totals from the official GitHub GraphQL API. Repo and follower counts come from public GitHub profile metadata. ${isRising ? 'Rising rank discounts large existing audiences to surface under-discovered activity.' : isGlobal ? 'The global page is still an observed candidate sample, not a complete census.' : 'Country matching uses free-text GitHub profile location and is not verified geography.'}</p>${queryStats(snapshot)}<p class="note"><a href="${rawPath}">Raw JSON snapshot</a> · <a href="/methodology/">Methodology</a></p></section></main>`, path);
+  return layout(isRising ? 'Rising GitHub contributors' : `Top GitHub contributors ${scope}`, description, `<main class="page"><section class="hero compact"><p class="eyebrow">${isRising ? 'Rising contributors' : isGlobal ? 'Global rankings' : 'Country rankings'}</p><div class="hero-shell"><div class="hero-copy"><h1>${isRising ? 'Rising GitHub contributors.' : `Top GitHub contributors ${escapeHtml(scope)}.`}</h1><p>${isRising ? 'A discovery board for active maintainers and builders whose public commits, PRs, and repositories are strong relative to follower count.' : 'Movement compares each contributor’s current rank with their previous OSSRank measurement when a prior snapshot exists. Click the column buttons to sort by public PRs, repos, or followers instead.'}</p><div class="stats"><span>${snapshot.entries.length} contributors</span><span>${snapshot.candidate_count} candidates checked</span><span>${updateCadenceLabel}</span><span>Latest ${escapeHtml(snapshot.generated_at.slice(0, 10))}</span></div></div><aside class="hero-card"><h2>${isGlobal ? 'How to use this board' : 'Signal at a glance'}</h2><ul><li><span>Default rank</span> <strong>Burst-adjusted public commits</strong></li><li><span>Trend</span> <strong>Movement vs previous snapshot</strong></li><li><span>Scope</span> <strong>${escapeHtml(isGlobal ? 'Observed global sample' : isRising ? 'Emerging contributors' : snapshot.name)}</strong></li></ul></aside></div></section><section class="panel">${contributorTable(snapshot)}<p class="note">Commit and PR counts are one-year public contribution totals from the official GitHub GraphQL API. When a contributor has an isolated per-user burst that exceeds their adaptive baseline cap, the table ranks on the adjusted commit signal while showing the raw total for audit. Repo and follower counts come from public GitHub profile metadata. ${isRising ? 'Rising rank discounts large existing audiences to surface under-discovered activity.' : isGlobal ? 'The global page is still an observed candidate sample, not a complete census.' : 'Country matching uses free-text GitHub profile location and is not verified geography.'}</p>${queryStats(snapshot)}<p class="note"><a href="${rawPath}">Raw JSON snapshot</a> · <a href="/methodology/">Methodology</a></p></section></main>`, path);
 }
 
 function projectsPage(snapshot: RankingSnapshot<RankedProject>, options?: { title?: string; eyebrow?: string; description?: string; intro?: string; rawPrefix?: string; path?: string }): string {
@@ -273,7 +281,7 @@ for (const category of categorySnapshots) {
 await writePage('agentic', layout('Agentic open-source projects', 'Agentic, Claude, Codex, and OpenClaw open-source project boards.', `<main class="page"><section class="hero compact"><p class="eyebrow">Agentic projects</p><div class="hero-shell"><div class="hero-copy"><h1>Agentic open-source radar.</h1><p>First-class boards for agent frameworks and workflows, plus Claude, Codex, and OpenClaw-related subcategories.</p><div class="stats"><span>${agenticCards.length} focused boards</span><span>${updateCadenceLabel}</span><span>Fresh snapshot from public GitHub data</span></div></div><aside class="hero-card"><h2>Included views</h2><ul><li><span>Frameworks</span> <strong>Agentic OSS projects</strong></li><li><span>Model ecosystems</span> <strong>Claude and Codex boards</strong></li><li><span>Tooling</span> <strong>OpenClaw and workflow infra</strong></li></ul></aside></div>${boardCards(agenticCards.map((snapshot) => ({ title: snapshot.name, text: `${snapshot.entries.length} projects · ${snapshot.candidate_count} candidates`, href: `/categories/${snapshot.slug}/`, icon: 'agentic-board' })))}</section></main>`, 'agentic'), { priority: '0.9' });
 if (momentum) await writePage('momentum', momentumPage(momentum), { priority: '0.9' });
 if (rising) await writePage('rising', contributorPage(rising, { rising: true }), { priority: '0.9' });
-await writePage('methodology', layout('Methodology', 'OSSRank methodology and limitations.', `<main class="page"><section class="hero compact"><p class="eyebrow">Methodology</p><div class="hero-shell"><div class="hero-copy"><h1>How OSSRank works.</h1><p>OSSRank is an observed public GitHub ranking built from official GitHub APIs. It refreshes weekly from point-in-time snapshots and is designed to be auditable and useful, not a complete census of every developer or repository on GitHub.</p></div><aside class="hero-card"><h2>Principles</h2><ul><li><span>Transparent</span> <strong>Queries are shown in every snapshot</strong></li><li><span>Cadence</span> <strong>Weekly public GitHub snapshots</strong></li><li><span>Consistent</span> <strong>Shared ranking inputs across boards</strong></li><li><span>Limited</span> <strong>Public GitHub data only</strong></li></ul></aside></div></section><section class="panel"><h2>Update cadence</h2><p>OSSRank is refreshed weekly from public GitHub API data. Each board shows the latest snapshot date in its header, and raw JSON snapshots include their exact generation timestamp and discovery query counts.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Discovery</h2><p>Contributor and project candidates come from saved GitHub search queries. Each snapshot stores the exact discovery queries and accepted candidate counts. There are no manually curated username or repository ranking seeds.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Agentic boards</h2><p>Agentic, Claude, Codex, and OpenClaw boards use GitHub repository search queries around public project text, topics, and recent pushes. They are category views over observable repository metadata, not endorsements or affiliation claims.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Rising contributors</h2><p>The rising contributor board is derived from current contributor snapshots. It weights public commits, pull requests, and repositories against follower count to surface under-discovered active contributors.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Momentum map</h2><p>The momentum map is derived from project snapshots. The vertical axis emphasizes recent merged PRs, commits, and releases; the horizontal axis emphasizes observed contributors, releases, issues, and stars.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Country matching</h2><p>Country pages use public, free-text GitHub profile locations. Location labels are confidence hints only: exact country, city match, multi-location, profile text match, or unknown. They are not verified nationality, residence, or identity claims.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Project metrics</h2><p>Project pages use GitHub repository search plus recent merged PR counts, recent commit counts, observed contributor counts, release counts, issue counts, and stars from official APIs. GraphQL recent merged PR and release windows are capped at the first 100 recently updated items, so high-volume repositories are displayed as 100+. Contributor count is observed all-time contributors when the REST budget permits, not unique contributors in the last 30 days.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Limitations</h2><ul><li>GitHub search is capped and relevance/ranking are controlled by GitHub.</li><li>Private contributions and private repositories are invisible.</li><li>Profiles with missing or playful locations may be absent or misclassified.</li><li>Snapshots are point-in-time weekly refreshes and may change as GitHub APIs update.</li></ul><p><a href="/data/latest/manifest.json">Open the latest manifest JSON</a></p></section></main>`, 'methodology'), { priority: '0.6', changefreq: 'weekly' });
+await writePage('methodology', layout('Methodology', 'OSSRank methodology and limitations.', `<main class="page"><section class="hero compact"><p class="eyebrow">Methodology</p><div class="hero-shell"><div class="hero-copy"><h1>How OSSRank works.</h1><p>OSSRank is an observed public GitHub ranking built from official GitHub APIs. It refreshes weekly from point-in-time snapshots and is designed to be auditable and useful, not a complete census of every developer or repository on GitHub.</p></div><aside class="hero-card"><h2>Principles</h2><ul><li><span>Transparent</span> <strong>Queries are shown in every snapshot</strong></li><li><span>Cadence</span> <strong>Weekly public GitHub snapshots</strong></li><li><span>Consistent</span> <strong>Shared ranking inputs across boards</strong></li><li><span>Limited</span> <strong>Public GitHub data only</strong></li></ul></aside></div></section><section class="panel"><h2>Update cadence</h2><p>OSSRank is refreshed weekly from public GitHub API data. Each board shows the latest snapshot date in its header, and raw JSON snapshots include their exact generation timestamp and discovery query counts.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Discovery</h2><p>Contributor and project candidates come from saved GitHub search queries. Each snapshot stores the exact discovery queries and accepted candidate counts. There are no manually curated username or repository ranking seeds.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Agentic boards</h2><p>Agentic, Claude, Codex, and OpenClaw boards use GitHub repository search queries around public project text, topics, and recent pushes. They are category views over observable repository metadata, not endorsements or affiliation claims.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Rising contributors</h2><p>The rising contributor board is derived from current contributor snapshots. It weights public commits, pull requests, and repositories against follower count to surface under-discovered active contributors. Contributor commit inputs use the same burst-adjusted signal as the main boards when an anomaly cap is applied.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Contribution burst handling</h2><p>OSSRank keeps raw public GitHub contribution totals in every snapshot, but rankings use an adjusted commit signal when a contributor has a suspicious isolated burst relative to their own activity pattern. The cap is adaptive per user: it allows large AI-era jumps such as 10x or 20x growth, and it also gives high-baseline contributors much more room than low-baseline accounts. This targets shapes like a normally quiet account suddenly recording thousands of contributions per day for a short window, without imposing a global hard threshold that would punish legitimately high-volume maintainers.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Momentum map</h2><p>The momentum map is derived from project snapshots. The vertical axis emphasizes recent merged PRs, commits, and releases; the horizontal axis emphasizes observed contributors, releases, issues, and stars.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Country matching</h2><p>Country pages use public, free-text GitHub profile locations. Location labels are confidence hints only: exact country, city match, multi-location, profile text match, or unknown. They are not verified nationality, residence, or identity claims.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Project metrics</h2><p>Project pages use GitHub repository search plus recent merged PR counts, recent commit counts, observed contributor counts, release counts, issue counts, and stars from official APIs. GraphQL recent merged PR and release windows are capped at the first 100 recently updated items, so high-volume repositories are displayed as 100+. Contributor count is observed all-time contributors when the REST budget permits, not unique contributors in the last 30 days.</p></section><section class="panel"><h2>Limitations</h2><ul><li>GitHub search is capped and relevance/ranking are controlled by GitHub.</li><li>Private contributions and private repositories are invisible.</li><li>Profiles with missing or playful locations may be absent or misclassified.</li><li>Snapshots are point-in-time weekly refreshes and may change as GitHub APIs update.</li></ul><p><a href="/data/latest/manifest.json">Open the latest manifest JSON</a></p></section></main>`, 'methodology'), { priority: '0.6', changefreq: 'weekly' });
 
 await cp(dataDir, join(outDir, 'data/latest'), { recursive: true, force: true });
 
diff --git a/scripts/validate-data.ts b/scripts/validate-data.ts
index a8d7ae4..7197d35 100644
--- a/scripts/validate-data.ts
+++ b/scripts/validate-data.ts
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { readdir, readFile } from 'node:fs/promises';
 import { join } from 'node:path';
-import type { Manifest, RankingSnapshot } from '../src/lib/types.js';
+import type { ContributorBurstAdjustment, Manifest, RankingSnapshot } from '../src/lib/types.js';
 
 const dataDir = process.argv[2] ?? 'data/latest';
 const errors: string[] = [];
@@ -13,6 +13,18 @@ function isIso(value: unknown): boolean {
   return typeof value === 'string' && Number.isFinite(Date.parse(value));
 }
 
+
+function validateBurstAdjustment(filename: string, row: number, adjustment: ContributorBurstAdjustment): void {
+  assert(Number.isInteger(adjustment.raw_public_commits) && adjustment.raw_public_commits >= 0, `${filename}: burst raw_public_commits for row ${row} must be a non-negative integer`);
+  assert(Number.isInteger(adjustment.adjusted_public_commits) && adjustment.adjusted_public_commits >= 0, `${filename}: burst adjusted_public_commits for row ${row} must be a non-negative integer`);
+  assert(adjustment.adjusted_public_commits <= adjustment.raw_public_commits, `${filename}: burst adjusted commits for row ${row} must not exceed raw commits`);
+  assert(typeof adjustment.baseline_daily_contributions === 'number' && adjustment.baseline_daily_contributions > 0, `${filename}: burst baseline for row ${row} must be positive`);
+  assert(Number.isInteger(adjustment.daily_burst_cap) && adjustment.daily_burst_cap > 0, `${filename}: burst daily cap for row ${row} must be a positive integer`);
+  assert(Number.isInteger(adjustment.capped_days) && adjustment.capped_days > 0, `${filename}: burst capped_days for row ${row} must be positive`);
+  assert(Number.isInteger(adjustment.excess_contributions) && adjustment.excess_contributions > 0, `${filename}: burst excess_contributions for row ${row} must be positive`);
+  assert(typeof adjustment.reason === 'string' && adjustment.reason.length > 10, `${filename}: burst reason for row ${row} is required`);
+}
+
 const manifest = JSON.parse(await readFile(join(dataDir, 'manifest.json'), 'utf8')) as Manifest;
 assert(isIso(manifest.generated_at), 'manifest.generated_at must be ISO');
 assert(Array.isArray(manifest.completed_shards), 'manifest.completed_shards must be an array');
@@ -20,7 +32,7 @@ assert(manifest.completed_shards.length > 0, 'manifest must include at least one
 
 for (const shard of manifest.completed_shards) {
   const filename = shard.path.replace('/data/latest/', '');
-  const snapshot = JSON.parse(await readFile(join(dataDir, filename), 'utf8')) as RankingSnapshot<{ rank: number; login?: string; full_name?: string; previous_rank?: unknown }>;
+  const snapshot = JSON.parse(await readFile(join(dataDir, filename), 'utf8')) as RankingSnapshot<{ rank: number; login?: string; full_name?: string; previous_rank?: unknown; contribution_burst_adjustment?: ContributorBurstAdjustment }>;
   assert(snapshot.kind === shard.kind, `${filename}: kind must match manifest`);
   assert(snapshot.slug === shard.slug, `${filename}: slug must match manifest`);
   assert(isIso(snapshot.generated_at), `${filename}: generated_at must be ISO`);
@@ -33,6 +45,9 @@ for (const shard of manifest.completed_shards) {
     if (entry.previous_rank !== undefined) {
       assert(typeof entry.previous_rank === 'number' && Number.isInteger(entry.previous_rank) && entry.previous_rank > 0, `${filename}: previous_rank for row ${index + 1} must be a positive integer when present`);
     }
+    if (entry.contribution_burst_adjustment !== undefined) {
+      validateBurstAdjustment(filename, index + 1, entry.contribution_burst_adjustment);
+    }
     const key = entry.login ?? entry.full_name;
     assert(key, `${filename}: entry ${index + 1} needs login or full_name`);
     if (key) {
diff --git a/scripts/verify-burst-adjustment.ts b/scripts/verify-burst-adjustment.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..273d2b5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/verify-burst-adjustment.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { contributionBurstAdjustment, contributorCommitSignal, rankContributors } from '../src/lib/ranking.js';
+import type { RankedContributor } from '../src/lib/types.js';
+
+function days(normal: number, burst: number, burstDays: number): number[] {
+  return [...Array(365 - burstDays).fill(normal), ...Array(burstDays).fill(burst)];
+}
+
+const quietAccountBurst = contributionBurstAdjustment(7007, days(1, 1000, 7));
+assert(quietAccountBurst, 'low-baseline 1/day -> 1000/day burst should be adjusted');
+assert.equal(quietAccountBurst.daily_burst_cap, 20);
+assert.equal(quietAccountBurst.capped_days, 7);
+assert.equal(quietAccountBurst.adjusted_public_commits, 147);
+
+assert.equal(
+  contributionBurstAdjustment(41980, days(200, 4000, 7)),
+  undefined,
+  'high-baseline 200/day -> 4000/day should be allowed'
+);
+
+assert.equal(
+  contributionBurstAdjustment(42140, days(20, 6000, 7)),
+  undefined,
+  'established 20/day -> 6000/day should be allowed by the adaptive cap'
+);
+
+const adjusted: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'> = {
+  login: 'burst-account',
+  profile_url: 'https://github.com/burst-account',
+  public_contributions: 7007,
+  observed_public_commits: 7007,
+  contribution_burst_adjustment: quietAccountBurst,
+  followers: 1
+};
+const steady: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'> = {
+  login: 'steady-builder',
+  profile_url: 'https://github.com/steady-builder',
+  public_contributions: 500,
+  observed_public_commits: 500,
+  followers: 1
+};
+assert.equal(contributorCommitSignal(adjusted), 147);
+assert.equal(rankContributors([adjusted, steady])[0].login, 'steady-builder');
+
+console.log('Burst adjustment checks passed');
diff --git a/src/lib/github.ts b/src/lib/github.ts
index b6712ea..85b82ce 100644
--- a/src/lib/github.ts
+++ b/src/lib/github.ts
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { mkdir, writeFile, readFile } from 'node:fs/promises';
 import { join } from 'node:path';
-import { rankContributors, rankProjectMomentum, rankProjects, rankRisingContributors } from './ranking.js';
+import { contributionBurstAdjustment, rankContributors, rankProjectMomentum, rankProjects, rankRisingContributors } from './ranking.js';
 import { COUNTRY_CONFIGS, type CountryConfig } from './countries.js';
 import { snapshotBase } from './snapshots.js';
 import { createTokenProvider, type GitHubTokenProvider } from './token-provider.js';
@@ -81,6 +81,7 @@ interface GitHubUserActivityNode {
   contributionsCollection: {
     totalCommitContributions: number;
     totalPullRequestContributions: number;
+    contributionCalendar: { weeks: Array<{ contributionDays: Array<{ contributionCount: number }> }> };
   };
 }
 
@@ -92,7 +93,7 @@ interface CandidateQueryStat {
 
 interface UserCandidate {
   user: GitHubUserDetail;
-  activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number };
+  activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number; dailyContributions: number[] };
   discoveredByQuery: string;
 }
 
@@ -394,7 +395,7 @@ function chunks<T>(items: T[], size: number): T[][] {
   return result;
 }
 
-function toUserCandidate(node: GitHubUserActivityNode): { user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number } } {
+function toUserCandidate(node: GitHubUserActivityNode): { user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number; dailyContributions: number[] } } {
   return {
     user: {
       login: node.login,
@@ -407,7 +408,8 @@ function toUserCandidate(node: GitHubUserActivityNode): { user: GitHubUserDetail
     },
     activity: {
       commits: node.contributionsCollection.totalCommitContributions,
-      pullRequests: node.contributionsCollection.totalPullRequestContributions
+      pullRequests: node.contributionsCollection.totalPullRequestContributions,
+      dailyContributions: node.contributionsCollection.contributionCalendar.weeks.flatMap((week) => week.contributionDays.map((day) => day.contributionCount))
     }
   };
 }
@@ -416,10 +418,10 @@ async function userProfilesWithActivityBatch(
   client: GitHubClient,
   logins: string[],
   generatedAt: string
-): Promise<Array<{ user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number } }>> {
+): Promise<Array<{ user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number; dailyContributions: number[] } }>> {
   const from = daysAgoIso(generatedAt, 365);
   const to = generatedAt;
-  const results: Array<{ user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number } }> = [];
+  const results: Array<{ user: GitHubUserDetail; activity: { commits: number; pullRequests: number; dailyContributions: number[] } }> = [];
 
   for (const batch of chunks(logins, 5)) {
     const variableDefinitions = batch.map((_, index) => `$login${index}: String!`).join(', ');
@@ -435,6 +437,11 @@ async function userProfilesWithActivityBatch(
         contributionsCollection(from: $from, to: $to) {
           totalCommitContributions
           totalPullRequestContributions
+          contributionCalendar {
+            weeks {
+              contributionDays { contributionCount }
+            }
+          }
         }
       }`).join('');
     const variables: Record<string, unknown> = { from, to };
@@ -538,6 +545,7 @@ async function collectUsers(client: GitHubClient, queries: string | string[], li
     public_gists: user.public_gists,
     observed_public_commits: activity.commits,
     observed_public_pull_requests: activity.pullRequests,
+    contribution_burst_adjustment: contributionBurstAdjustment(activity.commits, activity.dailyContributions),
     followers: user.followers,
     location: user.location ?? undefined,
     location_confidence: locationTerms && countryName ? locationConfidence(user.location, locationTerms, countryName) : 'unknown' as const,
diff --git a/src/lib/ranking.ts b/src/lib/ranking.ts
index fcbba30..e8a419c 100644
--- a/src/lib/ranking.ts
+++ b/src/lib/ranking.ts
@@ -1,8 +1,58 @@
-import type { RankedContributor, RankedProject } from './types.js';
+import type { ContributorBurstAdjustment, RankedContributor, RankedProject } from './types.js';
+
+function median(values: number[]): number {
+  if (values.length === 0) return 0;
+  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const middle = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+  return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[middle - 1] + sorted[middle]) / 2 : sorted[middle];
+}
+
+function robustDailyBaseline(dailyCounts: number[]): number {
+  const activeDays = dailyCounts.filter((count) => count > 0);
+  if (activeDays.length === 0) return 0;
+  const trimCount = Math.min(activeDays.length - 1, Math.max(1, Math.ceil(activeDays.length * 0.02)));
+  const trimmed = [...activeDays].sort((a, b) => a - b).slice(0, activeDays.length - trimCount);
+  return Math.max(1, median(trimmed));
+}
+
+function adaptiveDailyBurstCap(baseline: number): number {
+  return Math.ceil(Math.max(baseline * 20, baseline * baseline * 15));
+}
+
+export function contributionBurstAdjustment(rawPublicCommits: number, dailyContributionCounts: number[]): ContributorBurstAdjustment | undefined {
+  if (rawPublicCommits <= 0 || dailyContributionCounts.length === 0) return undefined;
+  const baseline = robustDailyBaseline(dailyContributionCounts);
+  if (baseline <= 0) return undefined;
+
+  const cap = adaptiveDailyBurstCap(baseline);
+  let excessContributions = 0;
+  let cappedDays = 0;
+  for (const count of dailyContributionCounts) {
+    if (count > cap) {
+      excessContributions += count - cap;
+      cappedDays += 1;
+    }
+  }
+  if (cappedDays === 0 || excessContributions <= 0) return undefined;
+
+  return {
+    raw_public_commits: rawPublicCommits,
+    adjusted_public_commits: Math.max(0, rawPublicCommits - Math.round(excessContributions)),
+    baseline_daily_contributions: Number(baseline.toFixed(2)),
+    daily_burst_cap: cap,
+    capped_days: cappedDays,
+    excess_contributions: Math.round(excessContributions),
+    reason: 'per-user daily contribution burst exceeded an adaptive baseline cap; raw public commits are preserved for audit'
+  };
+}
+
+export function contributorCommitSignal(entry: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'>): number {
+  return entry.contribution_burst_adjustment?.adjusted_public_commits ?? entry.observed_public_commits ?? entry.public_contributions;
+}
 
 export function rankContributors(entries: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'>[]): RankedContributor[] {
   return [...entries]
-    .sort((a, b) => (b.observed_public_commits ?? b.public_contributions) - (a.observed_public_commits ?? a.public_contributions) || (b.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0) - (a.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0) || (b.public_repos ?? 0) - (a.public_repos ?? 0) || b.followers - a.followers || a.login.localeCompare(b.login))
+    .sort((a, b) => contributorCommitSignal(b) - contributorCommitSignal(a) || (b.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0) - (a.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0) || (b.public_repos ?? 0) - (a.public_repos ?? 0) || b.followers - a.followers || a.login.localeCompare(b.login))
     .map((entry, index) => ({ ...entry, rank: index + 1 }));
 }
 
@@ -14,14 +64,14 @@ export function rankProjects(entries: Omit<RankedProject, 'rank'>[]): RankedProj
 
 export function rankRisingContributors(entries: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'>[]): RankedContributor[] {
   const score = (entry: Omit<RankedContributor, 'rank'>): number => {
-    const commits = entry.observed_public_commits ?? entry.public_contributions;
+    const commits = contributorCommitSignal(entry);
     const prs = entry.observed_public_pull_requests ?? 0;
     const repos = entry.public_repos ?? 0;
     const followers = entry.followers;
     return (commits + prs * 4 + repos * 8) / Math.sqrt(followers + 8);
   };
   return [...entries]
-    .sort((a, b) => score(b) - score(a) || (b.observed_public_commits ?? b.public_contributions) - (a.observed_public_commits ?? a.public_contributions) || a.login.localeCompare(b.login))
+    .sort((a, b) => score(b) - score(a) || contributorCommitSignal(b) - contributorCommitSignal(a) || a.login.localeCompare(b.login))
     .map((entry, index) => ({ ...entry, rank: index + 1 }));
 }
 
diff --git a/src/lib/types.ts b/src/lib/types.ts
index 7035ae2..8e5f1dc 100644
--- a/src/lib/types.ts
+++ b/src/lib/types.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,15 @@
 export type FreshnessState = 'fresh' | 'stale' | 'failed' | 'demo';
 
+export interface ContributorBurstAdjustment {
+  raw_public_commits: number;
+  adjusted_public_commits: number;
+  baseline_daily_contributions: number;
+  daily_burst_cap: number;
+  capped_days: number;
+  excess_contributions: number;
+  reason: string;
+}
+
 export interface RankedContributor {
   rank: number;
   login: string;
@@ -9,6 +19,7 @@ export interface RankedContributor {
   public_repos?: number;
   public_gists?: number;
   observed_public_commits?: number;
+  contribution_burst_adjustment?: ContributorBurstAdjustment;
   observed_public_pull_requests?: number;
   followers: number;
   location?: string;