diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 5e2c847..0ab22b0 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -6,19 +6,9 @@ Deep per-player statistics, head-to-head comparison, and first-principles match simulation for **both the ATP and WTA tours** — built from raw match data, with the working shown. -> **Status: live, and Phases 1 to 5 are done.** Ingestion, the schema, the API, the Elo -> engine, player pages, head-to-head, rankings, search, both simulators, the methodology -> page, the Match Charting Project's per-set sheets, tournaments and seasons as pages, and -> the serve and return leaderboards are all deployed at [deucepoint.net](https://deucepoint.net), -> which has been up since 14 September 2026. Since then the home page shows this week's -> events as they are played, refreshed hourly, and the head-to-head draws both players' -> last year on tour as a percentile radar; see [Roadmap](#roadmap). - ![The Deucepoint home page in the dark theme: the headline "Every match, and every gap between them.", a search box, the ticker of Elo leaders and results, and the This week card](docs/images/home.png) -**Live URL:** [deucepoint.net](https://deucepoint.net) — API at [api.deucepoint.net](https://api.deucepoint.net/api/v1/health) - ---- +**Live:** [deucepoint.net](https://deucepoint.net) — API at [api.deucepoint.net](https://api.deucepoint.net/api/v1/health) ## Why this exists @@ -43,12 +33,12 @@ interface that is designed rather than assembled. ```mermaid flowchart LR subgraph sources["Data sources (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)"] - A["Sackmann-lineage mirrors
ATP + WTA, all tiers
tour / Challenger / Futures / ITF"] - B["Tennismylife
ATP 2025-26, WTA 2022-26"] - C["Match Charting Project
shot-by-shot, to May 2026"] + A["Sackmann-lineage mirrors
ATP + WTA, all tiers"] + B["Tennismylife
current seasons + this week"] + C["Match Charting Project
shot-by-shot"] end - A --> I["cmd/ingest
streaming, idempotent"] + A --> I["cmd/ingest"] B --> I C --> I @@ -57,493 +47,44 @@ flowchart LR R --> PG PG --> API["cmd/api
Go + chi"] RD[("Redis 7")] <--> API - API --> SIM["internal/simulate
closed form + Monte Carlo"] + API --> SIM["internal/simulate"] SIM --> API API --> WEB["web/
React + TS + Vite"] - - V["cmd/validate"] -.reads.-> PG - DQ["cmd/dataqual"] -.reads.-> PG -``` - -Go handles ingestion, rating, simulation, and the API. PostgreSQL does the statistical -heavy lifting through window functions. The frontend is a static SPA served from a CDN — -deliberately **not** in the Kubernetes cluster. - -## Coverage - -| Tier | Matches (approx.) | Serve statistics | -|---|---|---| -| ATP tour | 195,000 | 89% (2005) → 99% (2022) | -| ATP qualifying + Challenger | 223,000 | 0% (2005) → 99.7% (2022) | -| ATP Futures | 447,000 | none, in any year | -| WTA tour | 250,000 | 19% (2005) → 89% (2022) | -| WTA qualifying + ITF | 488,000 | effectively none | -| **Total** | **~1.63 million** | | - -Over **115,000 players** across both tours. WTA records reach back to 1923. - -Depth is uneven and the site is explicit about it rather than hiding it: Futures and ITF -matches support win/loss, head-to-head, and Elo but carry no point-level data, so they -cannot feed the simulator. Where a statistic does not exist, the site explains why instead -of showing a zero. - -**Coverage is disclosed rather than papered over.** Full-schema data runs to within a few -weeks of the present for the ATP tour, Challenger and qualifying and for the WTA tour, and -stops in 2021 for ATP Futures and WTA ITF. The upstream repositories were withdrawn -mid-project; the lower tiers stop where the last mirror does. Filling that with -results-only data would put two data regimes in one database and produce -plausible-looking wrong numbers, so -[ADR-0006](docs/decisions/0006-accept-and-disclose-the-coverage-gap.md) accepts the gap -instead. `GET /api/v1/coverage` reports the real dates, queried from the database, so the -claim cannot drift from the data. - -Full detail in [`docs/methodology.md`](docs/methodology.md) and -[`DATA_LICENSE.md`](DATA_LICENSE.md). - -## Run it locally - -Needs Docker and Go 1.23+. - -```bash -make seed # Postgres + Redis, schema, ~4,100 real matches, and their ratings -make api # http://localhost:8080 -``` - -`make seed` takes about ten seconds. The fixture is small but deliberately covers every -data regime the site has to handle — full serve statistics, partial, never recorded at -this tier, and never recorded in this era — so the interesting behaviour is visible -immediately rather than after a full ingest. See [`testdata/README.md`](testdata/README.md). - -Or step by step: - -```bash -docker compose up -d # Postgres 16 + Redis 7 -make migrate-up # apply the schema -make ingest # load the seed fixture -make rate # compute the Elo ratings from those matches -``` - -Do not skip `make rate`. Ingest writes matches but no ratings, and the Elo leaderboard, -the surface strips, the rating charts and both simulators all read the ratings table — so -without it they come up empty, which reads as a broken page rather than a stage nobody -ran. - -Postgres is published on **5433** and Redis on **6380**, not the defaults, because a local -install very often already holds 5432 and 6379. - -Useful targets — `make help` lists them all: - -| | | -|---|---| -| `make up` | start the stack and wait until healthy | -| `make down` | stop it, keeping data | -| `make reset` | stop it and delete all data | -| `make psql` | open a shell on the database | -| `make seed` | stack, schema, seed fixture and ratings in one | -| `make rate` | recompute the Elo ratings from every match | -| `make api` | run the HTTP API on port 8080 | -| `make test` | run the test suite (starts its own Postgres) | -| `make lint` | run golangci-lint | - -### The API - -`make ingest` then `make api`, and the read-only API is up: - -``` -GET /api/v1/health readiness, including a database round trip -GET /api/v1/coverage what is actually in the database, and through when -GET /api/v1/players?q=&tour=&limit= fuzzy search, diacritic-insensitive -GET /api/v1/players/:slug profile and career summary -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/matches match history, filterable and cursor-paged -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/ratings Elo trajectory, per surface -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/rankings published ATP/WTA ranking over time -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/clutch break points, tiebreaks, deciding sets -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/percentiles last tour-level year, each axis a percentile of the tour -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/seasons a career a year at a time, every rate with its own count -GET /api/v1/players/:slug/highlights runs, biggest wins, titles by level, record by round, rivals -GET /api/v1/h2h/:slug/:opponent head-to-head, either way round -GET /api/v1/h2h/:slug/:opponent/common every opponent both have faced, with each side's record -GET /api/v1/rankings?type=elo|official leaderboards, as of the last week that exists -GET /api/v1/rankings/trajectory the leaders' rating lines, for a chart -GET /api/v1/simulate/match?a=&b= point to match, every rung of the chain -GET /api/v1/simulate/draw?event=&season= a played draw, replayed ten thousand times -GET /api/v1/simulate/draws?tour=&season= every draw complete enough to replay -GET /api/v1/tournaments?tour=&level=&q= the index, grouped by level, searchable -GET /api/v1/tournaments/:slug an event across seasons, with how each got there -GET /api/v1/tournaments/:slug/:season one edition as a draw sheet -GET /api/v1/recent?tier=&through= the finals of the last complete week, both tours -GET /api/v1/this-week events in progress, as results so far (hourly, provisional) -GET /api/v1/seasons a row per year, both tours, with the Slam finals -GET /api/v1/seasons/:year?tour=&tier= every event of a year at one tier, with its final -GET /api/v1/leaders/:stat?tour=&tier=&surface=&season=&min_matches= - a leaderboard, with its population and every row's denominator -``` - -```bash -curl 'localhost:8080/api/v1/players?q=Djokovi%C4%87' -curl localhost:8080/api/v1/players/novak-djokovic -curl 'localhost:8080/api/v1/players/novak-djokovic/matches?surface=clay&season=2016' -``` - -The history takes `surface`, `tier`, `season` and `opponent`, and they compose. Each row -carries that player's serve line for the match, or the reason there is none. - -A ranking is always **as of the last week that exists**, never today, and the response says -which week it used. Asking for a date outside coverage returns an empty page with that date -stated rather than a 404. An Elo leaderboard also drops players whose last rating is over a -year old — without that it is a list of the retired. - -**The simulators show their working.** `/simulate/match` returns every rung between a point -and a match, because the amplification is the claim: a two-point edge on serve becomes a -twelve-point edge on the match. Point probabilities are derived from the ratings rather than -from per-player serve statistics — which reach 3% of the players here — and anchored on the -measured tour-and-surface average, so the response names its own inputs -([ADR-0007](docs/decisions/0007-elo-derived-point-probability.md)). A pair the model cannot -serve is an answer with a reason, not a coin flip. - -`/simulate/draw` replays a draw that was actually played, with the ratings as of the week it -began, ten thousand times, and reports a confidence interval on every figure. There is no -upcoming draw to simulate and there will not be one, so the simulator does the thing the data -supports and can be scored against: Wimbledon 2019 gives Djokovic 39.9% ±1.0, and he won it. - -`/simulate/draws` is the list of every draw that can be replayed, which is narrower than the -list of draws that exist: a round robin has no bracket to rebuild, and an edition the file -recorded only the final of has nothing to play through. The endpoint applies that cut in SQL -rather than letting the page offer an address the simulator would decline, so every row it -returns is an `?event=&season=` the simulator will accept. The simulator opens on the top of -that list -- newest season, biggest event -- rather than a draw hardcoded in the frontend, so -which draw it starts on follows the data. - -**Under pressure is measured against a stated population.** `/clutch` reports break points -saved, tiebreaks won and deciding sets won, each against what the tour did at the same -levels in the same decades, weighted by where that player's own opportunities actually -fell -- so a Futures career is not measured against a tour average, and a career spanning -1995 and 2025 is not measured against either one alone. The population is in the response, -because a "+4" against an unnamed average is a number pretending to be a fact. Tiebreaks -and deciding sets are derived from the parsed score and the baseline is a table the ingest -rebuilds, since neither belongs in a request. Two of the three averages come out at exactly -50%, and [`docs/performance.md`](docs/performance.md) explains why that is arithmetic -rather than a finding. - -The profile carries current and peak Elo for every series the player has one in — a surface -they never played is absent rather than sitting at the base rating, and a player nothing -rated has a null block rather than five 1500s. - -**Redis caches the read path, and an ingest clears it.** Nothing expires on a timer: the -data only moves when an ingest runs, so that is when the cache is cleared, and the 24-hour -TTL on a key is a backstop rather than a freshness policy. A cached response lands in about -3ms whatever it cost to produce — the Elo leaderboard goes from 77ms to 3ms against a warm -Postgres, and from 842ms against a cold one. Redis being down costs time and nothing else: -every failure is a miss, the handler does the work anyway, and readiness still reports -healthy. `X-Cache` says `hit` or `miss` on every response and `/health` carries the running -hit rate, so the value is measured rather than assumed. Leave `REDIS_URL` unset and the API -runs with no cache at all, which is what every test does. - -Statistics that were never recorded are reported as absent with a reason, never as zero — -see [Coverage](#coverage). Errors are RFC 7807 `problem+json`, and list responses are -cursor-paginated. - -`make ingest-full` performs the complete multi-decade ingest from the configured sources. - -Tests need Docker but no setup: the integration suites start a throwaway Postgres per -package, apply the migrations, and stop it afterwards. Without Docker they skip with an -explanation rather than failing. Set `TEST_DATABASE_URL` to use a server you already have; -it must be named `*test*`, because some of those tests truncate tables. -### The frontend - -```bash -make web # Vite dev server on :5173, proxying /api to the local API -make site # the whole stack in Docker: site on :5174, API on :8080 -make web-build # tsc, eslint, vitest and a production build ``` -The site is **Deucepoint**; the repository, the Go module and the compose project keep the -name `tennis-wiki`, which is an identifier rather than a brand and is not worth the churn of -renaming. - -React, TypeScript and Vite under `web/`, styled with CSS Modules and custom properties. -No Tailwind, no component library, no charting library, no icon set. Every page is set as a -sheet from the tournament office: one monospaced face, ruled lines, seeds in brackets, scores -typed as the source writes them, and colour only where a value is surface-scoped. The design -record is [`DESIGN.md`](DESIGN.md), the reasoning is -[ADR-0010](docs/decisions/0010-the-draw-sheet.md), and `/_components` renders every -component in every state, which is the fastest way to check the system against a page. - -`/simulator` is the third: two pickers, the chain from a service point up to the match, the -chance of each set score, one match played out game by game from the chain's serve figures -when asked (a sample of the model, with a board, a line of commentary and a tally counted -from the points it played), and a draw played ten thousand times with an interval on every -figure. The caption carries the matchup's own numbers rather than the design's, and says -where the inputs came from. The head-to-head page's "Simulate this matchup" button leads -here with both players. The page's layout and beats follow -[`docs/design/prototypes/simulator.html`](docs/design/prototypes/simulator.html). - -`/tournaments/:slug/:season` is the page the design was built for: the edition as its draw -sheet. From 880px the bracket is drawn and paged the way the printed sheet is -- a 128 draw as -four quarters and then the last eight, a 56 draw as two halves and the last four, 32 and under -on one sheet -- with a name written above its rule, the pair joined at the right, the winner's -rule stepping in from the midpoint and the score under the name in the column it earned. -Below 880px it is one round at a time behind a sticky stepper. The bracket is grown back from -the results, since the files carry who beat whom and not which line anyone was on, so a seed -with no first-round match sits above a typed `bye` and a row the file lacks reads `n/r`. -`/tournaments/:slug` is every edition of an event as a row, printing how each one got there -(ADR-0012), and `/tournaments` the index grouped by level with a search. Every tournament -name on a match row links to its sheet, and the sheet's "Replay this draw" opens the -simulator on the same edition. - -The home page carries last week's finals: the week that ended Sunday, as the finals of the -tour-level events that began it, both tours, each a link to the sheet and to both players, -with the date each tour's data is current to written on it. The site does not do live, and -this is the fastest way to show a visitor it is current without saying the word. An -off-season week says which week it is showing instead rather than vanishing, and a tour with -no final that week says so. - -Above it, **This week** shows the tour-level events being played now as their results so -far: how far each draw has got and its latest matches, fetched hourly from the source's -ongoing files and labelled as provisional, with how long ago they last changed. Still not -live scores: a result appears once the source records the finished match. These rows are -kept apart from the match table and feed no rating until the weekly load brings the finished -event in ([ADR-0016](docs/decisions/0016-this-week.md)). - -`/seasons` is the calendar a year at a time, both tours on every row since a season is the -one place the two share one: the events on each surface as the site's squares with their -counts, then the Slam champions in calendar order, and the women's rows reaching back to 1923 -rather than starting where the men's files do. A year in progress says the date each tour -is complete to. `/seasons/:year` is every event of the year grouped by level, with a tier -switch so a year at Challenger level is reachable rather than silently cut. - -`/leaders` is the leaderboards: one figure at a time -- eight serve figures, five return -figures, total points and the dominance ratio, and five read from the score -- filtered by -tour, tier, surface and season, every filter in the URL. The population is written above the -table (how many matches met the filter, how many had statistics, how many players clear the -floor) and every row carries the matches it stands on and the counts behind its rate, because -a first-serve rate over two matches and one over two hundred are different claims. A name -that is not in the table can be looked up, and the page says which absence it is: below the -floor, with the figure over the matches they do have, or without the figure at all. It sits -beside `/rankings` rather than in the nav, because a leaderboard is a ranking. -**The player page is a dozen cards deep, so it carries its own table of contents**: a -sticky rail under the header that tracks the section in view, every entry a real anchor so a -section is a link somebody can send. Under it the career is read four ways the rest of the -site cannot read it. - -*Serve and return are two cards, not one.* A return figure is made of the opponent's serve -line, so its denominators are theirs — break points converted is the break points *they* -faced, return games won is *their* service games — and the two are counted over different -sets of matches, because a row can carry one side's line and not the other's. Below them sit -the two figures that need both at once, over the matches that carried both: total points won, -and the dominance ratio (return points won over serve points lost; 1.00 is a player who -returns exactly as well as they are returned against). - -*Runs and the schedule* is the career as what happened: the longest winning run and the one -in progress, found with a gaps-and-islands window over the match list, with retirements and -walkovers left out of the sequence entirely — a run of wins broken by an opponent who never -came out has not been broken by a defeat. Beside them, the average and the highest Elo the -schedule actually faced, and the record above 2000. Every opponent carries the rating they -held the week of the match, not the one they ended their career on, so a win over a future -champion is credited with what it was worth at the time. - -*Biggest wins* ranks those same wins by that rating, which is the list every career average -is an average of. *How far, and what was won* draws the record round by round as the funnel -a career actually is, scaled against the busiest round, with titles over finals reached at -each kind of event beneath it. *Most-played opponents* is who kept turning up, each row a -link to the rivalry page. - -The player page cuts a career two more ways. By the opponent's ranking on the day -- the -record vs No. 1, the top 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100, outside the top 100 and unranked, the bands -nesting -- and by closeness, with the matches a final-set tiebreak decided; each is captioned -with the matches it is a record over, since a ranking is known for some matches and not -others. And year by year, one row per season with the record, titles, sets, games and -tiebreaks won, and where serve lines exist the hold, break, ace and double-fault rates and the -dominance ratio, every rate over its own count of matches: a season with four recorded matches -and sixty played is the common case in the 1990s and reads as sixty played, four recorded. -Both come from `player_totals`, rebuilt by the ingest, and were verified against a count -straight from the match rows for a long ATP career and a short WTA one. - -`/h2h/:a/:b` is the comparison and `/h2h` the picker, which is the same page: the URL is the -state, so a comparison is a link somebody can send, and asking the other way round is the same -rivalry read from the other end. A rivalry argument is usually about a narrower thing, so the -cut is in the URL too: level, round, best of, surface, the meetings that went the distance, -the ones with a tiebreak, and a season range. The endpoint recomputes the record, the strip, -the serve figures and the meeting list under the cut, and the score line writes the whole -sentence -- "3-6 in finals, at Slams, of 41 meetings" -- because 3-6 is a different claim. -The deciding sets and tiebreaks between them are the rivalry's summary and are never cut. A -cut that leaves nothing is an answer naming the filter; two players who never met is a full -page, not an error. - -**Through a common opponent** is the comparison a three-match rivalry cannot make. Two -players who have met three times have usually played the same few dozen people, and how each -did against that shared field says more about the matchup than three results do. Its own -request rather than a block on the comparison: it is two whole careers grouped and joined, -and the score at the top should not wait for it. - -**Charts read as well as they draw.** A career line whose only legible values are its two -ends is a picture of a career rather than a record of one, so pointing at the rating history -puts a crosshair on the nearest week and writes that week's date and Elo over the line. The -same readout answers to the arrow keys and is announced politely, because "what was he rated -in 2016" should not need a mouse. - -**Search is a command palette**, on ⌘K or Ctrl-K anywhere and on `/` when nothing else has -focus. A field in the header could only ever open a player page, and the best pages on this -site are comparisons; this reaches every player, every route, and both comparisons. Type a -name, press Tab, and the palette becomes "head to head against…" or "simulate a match -against…" — then search the other half and land on `/h2h/a/b`, which is otherwise two -searches on two pages. With nothing typed it offers the players this browser has actually -read, kept in local storage and nowhere else. It debounces and cancels superseded requests, -and every row carries tour, country, career match count and best tier, because at 115,000 -players a name is not an identifier. `/players?q=` is the same search as a full list, and the -query and tour filter live in the URL so a search can be sent to somebody. - -**A dark theme, on a three-state toggle**: follow the system, light, or dark. Three states -rather than two, because a reader who has chosen nothing is not the same as one who has -chosen the theme their machine happens to be on, and their site should keep following them -at dusk. The choice is one attribute on `` and a block of custom properties; every -colour that carries meaning — the two sides of a comparison, the four surfaces, win and loss -— is lifted until it clears 4.5:1 on the panel it sits on. An inline script in `index.html` -applies a stored choice before the first paint, so nothing flashes cream on the way to dark. - -**Every page carries structured data** for the crawlers that execute scripts: `WebSite` -with the player search as its search action on the root, `Person` on a player, `SportsEvent` -on an edition with the finalists as competitors, and `BreadcrumbList` on every route below -the root. Every value is copied from an API response and nothing is invented to fill a slot -the schema offers -- `SportsEvent` has a location and the files carry none, so it stays -absent -- and a test holds the `Person` to carrying no field the profile did not. - -**The TypeScript types are generated from the Go response structs**, not written by hand. -`make web-types` runs [tygo](https://github.com/gzuidhof/tygo) over `internal/httpapi` into -`web/src/api/types.gen.ts`, and CI regenerates and diffs it on every change, so altering a -handler's shape without updating the client fails the build rather than the browser. Same -discipline as sqlc, one layer up. - -**The absence system is three components, not one.** `AbsentCell` is a missing value in a -populated table, `PartialAggregate` is a summary over a gappy column that has to declare -its denominator, and `EmptyState` is a whole section that explains itself and points -somewhere with data. 83% of matches carry no serve statistics, so these render more often -than the numbers do; collapsing them into a falsy check would throw away the distinction -every layer below works to preserve. - -`docker compose up` builds and runs the whole stack, with the API same-origin behind nginx -so the built site and the dev server behave identically. `make ingest-full` loads the -complete dataset. +Go handles ingestion, rating, simulation and the read-only API; PostgreSQL does the +statistical work. The API, Postgres and Redis run on a single k3s node, with a weekly +CronJob catching the data up and an hourly one for this week's results. The frontend is a +static SPA on Cloudflare Pages. Design decisions are recorded in [`docs/decisions/`](docs/decisions/), +and the system and runbook in [`docs/architecture.md`](docs/architecture.md) and +[`docs/deployment.md`](docs/deployment.md). ## Rating methodology -Ratings are computed from scratch over every match in chronological order — no ratings -are imported from any API. Standard Elo, with a decaying K-factor so that a player's early -matches move their rating far more than their five-hundredth: +Ratings are computed from scratch over every match, replayed in draw order, with no +ratings imported from anywhere. It is standard Elo with a K-factor that decays with +experience, scaled by how much a match matters (a Grand Slam final at 1.20, Futures at +0.60): $$K(n) = \frac{250}{(n + 5)^{0.4}}$$ -where `n` is the number of matches that player has completed **before** the current one, in -that series. This gives K = 131.33 for a debutant and K = 20.73 at 500 matches — the spec's -gloss of "about 25" is wrong, and K reaches 25 at roughly 311 matches -([ADR-0004](docs/decisions/0004-tier-taxonomy-and-elo-pool.md)). K then scales by a -match-importance weight, from a Grand Slam final at 1.20 down to Futures at 0.60. - -Matches are replayed in draw order, not date order: nearly every tournament in the source -carries a single date for all of its matches, so ordering by date alone would rate a final -before the semi-final that produced its finalist. Walkovers are not rated — nobody played -them — and team events are excluded by default. - -Five independent rating series are kept per player — overall, hard, clay, grass, carpet. -A series is snapshotted only in the weeks it moved, which is what keeps the table at three -million rows instead of two billion. For display and simulation they are blended: +Each player has five series: overall, hard, clay, grass and carpet. For display and +simulation, a surface is blended with overall by how much of it the player has played: -$$\text{blended} = w \cdot \text{surface elo} + (1 - w) \cdot \text{overall elo}, \qquad w = \min\left(0.75, \frac{\text{surface matches}}{40}\right)$$ +$$\text{blended} = w \cdot \text{surface} + (1 - w) \cdot \text{overall}, \qquad w = \min\left(0.75, \frac{\text{surface matches}}{40}\right)$$ -so a player with five clay matches leans on their overall rating while a clay specialist -with a hundred leans on their clay rating. `rating.Blend` implements it and reports the -weight it used alongside the figure, because 1900 from a hundred clay matches and 1900 from -three are the same number and different claims. A surface never played is absent rather -than blended at 1500. Ratings are recomputed from scratch on every -full ingest and never incrementally patched, so a bug fix is always one rerun away from -correct. - -`make validate` replays the whole history and reports predictive accuracy and calibration -per tier, mean reversion across the pool, promotion continuity, and what the simulation -chain adds on top of the ratings. Tour-level accuracy is -**69.7%**, inside the 68-72% the spec asks for. The tier weights are configuration rather -than constants, so `validate --weights` tries alternatives without a rebuild; what the -evidence says about them is in [the methodology](docs/methodology.md). - -The simulator is checked for what it can be checked for. Its match-level answer is the -rating's by construction, so the interesting question is what the chain claims underneath: -it expects 44.3% of matches to reach a deciding set and 34.8% do, which is the independent- -sets assumption showing through, and it is written up rather than quietly corrected. Draw -simulations of 298 real events score 0.833 on Brier against 0.969 for knowing only the field -size. Both are in [the methodology](docs/methodology.md). - -The full derivation, including the simulation chain from point to match, is at +At tour level the ratings pick the winner **69.7%** of the time, two points better than +the official ATP and WTA rankings on the same matches. The full derivation, validation and +simulation chain are in [`docs/methodology.md`](docs/methodology.md), rendered at [deucepoint.net/methodology](https://deucepoint.net/methodology). -## Data attribution and license - -This project is built on data originating from the work of **Jeff Sackmann / -[Tennis Abstract](http://www.tennisabstract.com/)**, licensed -**[CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/)**. - -> **Note (September 2026):** the canonical `JeffSackmann/tennis_atp` and -> `JeffSackmann/tennis_wta` repositories are no longer public. Only -> [`tennis_MatchChartingProject`](https://github.com/JeffSackmann/tennis_MatchChartingProject) -> remains. This project therefore ingests from license-compliant redistributions of that -> data. See [`DATA_LICENSE.md`](DATA_LICENSE.md) for the full provenance chain and the -> exact sources used. - -The license is taken seriously here, because its author takes it seriously: - -- **Attribution** appears in the site footer on every page and in `DATA_LICENSE.md`. -- **NonCommercial** — there are no ads, no payment flows, and no paid tier. Ever. -- **ShareAlike** — all ingested and derived data, including the seed fixtures in this - repo, is redistributed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. - -**Code** in this repository is licensed under the [MIT License](LICENSE). **Data**, and -any dataset derived from it, is licensed under -[CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](DATA_LICENSE.md). See -[ADR-0001](docs/decisions/0001-dual-license-code-and-data.md) for the reasoning behind -that split. - -## Deliberately not built - -- **Live in-play scores.** Requires a paid feed ($40/month at the low end, enterprise - quote at the high end). The architecture leaves a websocket seam for it, but shipping it - would mean either paying indefinitely or scraping — neither is defensible for a public - non-commercial site. What the home page does show is this week's finished matches, - hourly, from the free source the rest of the data comes from ([ADR-0016](docs/decisions/0016-this-week.md)). -- **Betting odds, tipping, or predictions framed as picks.** The simulator reports - probabilities and shows its working. It is not a gambling product and will not be - shaped into one. -- **User accounts, comments, social features.** They add moderation burden and privacy - obligations without making the statistics better. -- **Mobile apps.** The site is responsive to 360px; that is the right amount of mobile - investment for this product. -- **Doubles** _(v1)_. ~26,000 doubles matches exist and are not discarded, but they need a - four-player match model and a separate rating treatment. The schema does not preclude - them; the work is deferred. - -## Roadmap - -| Phase | Scope | Status | -|---|---|---| -| 1 | Ingestion, schema, read-only API | Done | -| 2 | Elo engine, player pages, H2H, rankings, search, clutch, caching | Done | -| 3 | Match simulator (closed form), draw simulator (Monte Carlo) | Done | -| 4 | Methodology page, image builds, k3s, deployment, the Match Charting Project | Done | -| 5 | Tournaments and seasons as pages, the draw sheet rendered, serve and return leaderboards, player and head-to-head splits | Done ([#131](https://github.com/sami0076/tennis-wiki/issues/131)) | - -Since Phase 5: the redesign in cream, ink and white ([ADR-0014](docs/decisions/0014-court-colour.md)), -the head-to-head radar of tour percentiles ([ADR-0015](docs/decisions/0015-player-percentiles.md)), -and this week's results on the home page ([ADR-0016](docs/decisions/0016-this-week.md)). - -Clutch metrics were pulled forward into Phase 2 and shipped there. Phase 3's shape was -checked against the data before it was planned, and two things moved: the point-win -probability cannot come from serve statistics alone — only 3,362 of 125,719 players have -ten or more matches carrying them, against 75,021 who are rated — and there is no upcoming -draw to simulate, so the draw simulator replays draws that were already played and scores -itself against what actually happened. Both are written up in the tracking issue. +## Data and license -## Documentation +The match data comes from the work of **Jeff Sackmann / [Tennis Abstract](http://www.tennisabstract.com/)**, +licensed [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), through +license-compliant redistributions, since the original repositories are no longer public. +The site is non-commercial, attributes the source on every page, and redistributes derived +data under the same license. Provenance is in [`DATA_LICENSE.md`](DATA_LICENSE.md). -- [`docs/architecture.md`](docs/architecture.md) — system design and the deployment topology -- [`docs/methodology.md`](docs/methodology.md) — coverage, the rating engine, the simulation chain and what the validation says about them; rendered at [deucepoint.net/methodology](https://deucepoint.net/methodology) -- [`docs/deployment.md`](docs/deployment.md) — how it is deployed, the runbook, and what it costs -- [`docs/performance.md`](docs/performance.md) — measured ingest, size and query cost at scale -- [`docs/decisions/`](docs/decisions/) — architecture decision records +**Code** is [MIT](LICENSE); **data** is [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](DATA_LICENSE.md) +([ADR-0001](docs/decisions/0001-dual-license-code-and-data.md)).