Copper operating-leverage / cost-curve torque analysis#6
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Import permanent notes (Ideas, Notes, Goals, Pages, Projects) from Anytype vault into the correct vault path. Includes ~44 backlinks across 19 notes connecting 5 thematic clusters: exploration-focus, systems & design, self & consciousness, cross-cluster ideas-notes, and goals-ideas. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nalytics Replace run_search.sh (pure FAISS vector search) with qmd hybrid search (BM25 + vector + LLM reranking) across all skills and agents. Local Brain Search retained exclusively for graph analytics (connections, hubs, bridges, stats via run_connections.sh). Updated 19 files: 7 agents, 9 skills, CLAUDE.md, .mcp.json.template. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add "Blog Post" nav link to Substack article on both index.html and physics.html - Replace sonar bar chart with ocean scene + waterfall cascade diagram - Add animated wavefronts, detection glow, submarine/hydrophone scene - Add range marker to probability chart - Add scenario presets (surface ship, diesel, AIP sub) - Add inline function labels to SOFAR depth profiles - Add "Why Maritime Radar is Clutter-Dominated" explainer section - Add 13-source references section with inline superscript citations - Add SOFAR curve equations (Mackenzie, pressure, temperature) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Re-runs the March 20, 2026 copper bear case against May 2026 actual outcomes and self-rates the prior analysis. Bear case was directionally wrong (copper rallied from $13K → $14.1K instead of falling to $9-11K target) because two catalysts were missed or underweighted: (1) Strait of Hormuz closure already active since Feb 28, (2) China sulphuric acid export ban effective May 1 - the exact scenario gamed in the April 10 follow-up at 5-12% probability. Adds: - hekate/04-Output/Research/copper-rerun-assessment-2026-05/ with full pillar-by-pillar scoring (bear case 4.2/10, acid scenario 8.7/10) and updated investment recommendations (Aurubis +33%, IVN lagged, MOS for phosphate trade) - resources/copper-investment-analyzer/ with refreshed yfinance data, updated INLINE_DATA, KPIs (Yangshan recovered $34→$51-66, acid ban ACTIVE, Hormuz CLOSED), expanded timeline with the missed catalysts, and revised scenario probabilities (bear 32→15%, base 33→40%, bull 22→30%, super-bull 13→15%) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
New /understand-paper skill: ingest a paper (arXiv/PDF/topic), extract its key concepts as a dependency DAG, probe the learner's prerequisite frontier with multiple-choice questions, then teach the gap concept-by-concept with worked numerical examples and gated quizzes. - scripts/extract_paper.py: full-text extraction (curl + pymupdf, no SSL dep) - references/frontier-assessment.md: efficient DAG-probing algorithm - references/pedagogy.md: per-concept teaching loop + gating rules - assets/learning-path-template.md: resumable curriculum/progress doc Includes the first completed learning path (BEV-Patch-PF, arXiv:2512.15111) produced during live testing. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Rerun of the copper equities analysis through the operating-leverage lens: worst-margin (highest-cost) producers carry the most earnings torque to copper, so they lead in a bull run and crater most in a flat/bear market. Confirmed empirically on the June 2026 bull-run window (corr(beta, 1mo return) = +0.71, +0.82 ex-IVN), with the refinement that raw AISC is a noisy proxy (+0.25) because of three wedges: by-product subsidy, financial/small-cap leverage, and value extraction (the KGHM Polish-tax torque trap). Clean torque = high cost + ~90% copper revenue + no state wedge + no broken-mine binary (Capstone, Ero, Teck; First Quantum as a resolving-binary kicker). - Research report + metadata in hekate/04-Output/Research/ copper-operating-leverage-2026-06/ (torque model, empirical test, value-trap taxonomy, refined recommendations) - Dashboard: new "Op Leverage" tab with live cost-curve torque table (torque @ spot/$5/$4/$3.50), empirical-validation KPIs, 3-wedges breakdown; added CS/LUN/ANTO to tracked universe; refreshed prices (market_data.json, Jun 4); June 2026 header - Three permanent framework notes in hekate/02-Permanent/ Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Reruns the copper equities analysis through an operating-leverage / cost-curve lens: the worst-margin (highest-cost) producers carry the most earnings torque to copper — they lead in a bull run and crater most in a flat/bear market.
torque = Price / (Price − AISC).The thesis holds, with one refinement. Confirmed empirically on the June 2026 bull-run window:
corr(beta, 1-month return) = +0.71(+0.82 excluding the idiosyncratically-broken Ivanhoe)Refinement: raw AISC is a noisy proxy (corr +0.25) because three wedges sit between the cost curve and the stock return:
Clean torque = high cost + ~90% copper revenue + no state wedge + no broken-mine binary → Capstone, Ero, Teck, with First Quantum as a resolving-binary kicker. The inverse is convexity: at $3.50/lb copper, FM's torque hits 35x and the high-cost cohort goes cash-flow-negative while SCCO/BHP still mint $1.50+/lb.
Changes
hekate/04-Output/Research/copper-operating-leverage-2026-06/(torque model, empirical test, value-trap taxonomy, refined recommendations) +_metadata.mdresources/copper-investment-analyzer/index.html: live cost-curve torque table (torque @ spot/$5/$4/$3.50), empirical-validation KPIs, 3-wedges breakdown. Added CS/LUN/ANTO to the tracked universe; refreshed prices (market_data.json, Jun 4); June 2026 header. Rendering verified headless (12 rows, no JS errors).hekate/02-Permanent/Caveats
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