The budget estimate counts the part of the bill every request pays - #27
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A 138 byte action was estimated at 70 tokens and billed 278. The estimate was bytes over a ratio, with no fixed part, and the ratio came from the last call alone. After that small call, a 6 KB request was estimated at 14,327 tokens, billed 3,277 one call earlier, and refused on every try. The estimate is now 250 tokens plus the body over the ratio, and only a call whose body was billed at least 250 tokens updates the ratio.
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The daily budget check estimated a request from its size in bytes over one ratio, with no fixed part, and the ratio came from the last call alone. Measured on a development instance: a 138 byte action was estimated at 70 tokens and billed 278. After that small call, a 6 KB request was estimated at 14,327 tokens, while the same request was billed 3,277 one call earlier, so it was refused on every try.
The estimate is now 250 tokens plus the body over the ratio, times the margin. Only a call whose body was billed at least 250 tokens updates the ratio.
Live receipts after the change: small action, estimate 348 against a bill of 271. A 6 KB request, estimate 3,018 against 2,642. A synthetic worst case of 6,000 repeated bytes, estimate 2,927 against 3,274, which is 11% under.
Tests:
test_the_cold_start_estimate_is_above_what_was_billed,test_one_measured_call_sets_the_estimate_for_the_next,test_a_small_call_leaves_the_ratio_alone.Local gate: ruff, ruff format, mypy --strict, pytest (412 passed), config_flow 100%, mkdocs --strict, hassfest. EXIT 0.