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Task 2: Customer Retention & Churn Analysis

Project Overview

A comprehensive analysis of Telco customer churn patterns using Python, Pandas, and Matplotlib/Seaborn visualizations in a Jupyter Notebook. This analysis examines 7,043 customers across 21 attributes to identify key risk factors driving customer churn and provides actionable recommendations to improve customer retention.


Key Metrics Summary

Metric Value
Total Customers 7,043
Churned Customers 1,869
Overall Churn Rate ~26.5%
Retention Rate ~73.5%
Highest Risk Segment Fiber Optic + Month-to-Month (0-3 months tenure)
Lowest Risk Segment DSL/No Service + 2-Year Contract (50+ months tenure)

Final Report

Top 3 Churn Risk Factors

1. Internet Service Type — CRITICAL RISK FACTOR

The three internet service categories (Fiber Optic, DSL, and No Service) show dramatically different churn rates, with Fiber Optic customers churning significantly more than other service types.

Root Causes Identified:

  • High Monthly Charges — As shown in Figure 8, Fiber Optic service monthly charges are substantially higher than DSL customers ($80-100+ vs. $40-70). This significant price premium correlates directly with the high churn rate for Fiber Optic customers.

    • Hypothesis: Customers are leaving because Fiber Optic service is expensive.
  • Predominantly Month-to-Month Contracts — Figure 9 reveals that most Fiber Optic subscribers are on month-to-month contracts rather than longer-term agreements. Figure 1 shows that over 40% of month-to-month customers churn compared to just 3-11% for longer-term contracts.

    • Hypothesis: The combination of high cost + short-term contract flexibility makes it easy for customers to leave Fiber Optic service.

Analysis: Fiber Optic customers represent a compounding risk — they are expensive, on short contracts, and have high churn rates.


2. Customer Tenure (Lifetime Duration) — CRITICAL RISK FACTOR

Figure 2 clearly demonstrates extreme tenure-dependency in churn rates. The churn rate follows a clear inverse relationship with customer tenure:

  • 0-3 months: Extremely high churn (new customer critical window)
  • 4-6 months through 50+ months: Progressively lower churn rates
  • 50+ months: Minimal churn (highly loyal customers)

Figure 3 (tenure distribution histogram) visually confirms that churned customers cluster in the 0-10 month range, while retained customers span across all tenure periods.

  • Hypothesis: Long-tenure customers are highly loyal; new customers are vulnerable in their first 3 months. This is the critical intervention window.

Analysis: Tenure is the strongest predictor of churn. The company loses its highest-risk customers in the first few months.


3. Monthly Charges — MODERATE RISK FACTOR

Figure 4 (boxplot comparison) shows that churned customers have a slightly higher median monthly charge compared to retained customers, indicating a weak but consistent correlation between cost and churn.

  • Hypothesis: Higher-cost service tiers correlate with marginally elevated churn risk, though this effect is secondary to tenure and service type.

Analysis: Price sensitivity plays a supporting role in churn; it amplifies other risk factors (like Fiber Optic) but is not a primary driver on its own.


Additional Churn Drivers (Segment Analysis)

Figure 5 - Partnership Status:
Customers without partners churn at higher rates than those with partners, suggesting that household stability correlates with retention.

Figure 6 - Phone Service:
Minimal difference in churn by phone service availability, indicating this is not a primary churn driver.

Figure 7 - Senior Citizen Status:
Senior Citizens churn at 40%+ rates, significantly higher than non-seniors (~25%). This is a secondary but important risk factor.

Figure 10 - Tech Support Adoption:
Senior Citizens have dramatically lower tech support adoption despite their high churn rates, suggesting they lack the technical skills or knowledge to access available support services.


High-Risk Customer Segments (Priority Tiers)

TIER 1 - CRITICAL PRIORITY:

  • Fiber Optic + Month-to-Month + 0-3 months tenure = Highest churn concentration
  • Action needed immediately upon signup

TIER 2 - HIGH PRIORITY:

  • New customers (0-3 months tenure) across all service types = Vulnerable retention window
  • Senior Citizens (any service type) = 40%+ churn rate due to lack of support

TIER 3 - MODERATE PRIORITY:

  • Fiber Optic customers on any contract type = High cost sensitivity
  • Month-to-Month customers of any age/service = Easy exit path

Key Recommendations

1. Implement Aggressive New Customer Retention Program (0-3 Month Window)

New customers are the highest-risk group. Implement proactive engagement:

  • Onboarding: Dedicated support specialist contact within 24 hours of signup
  • Check-ins: Proactive outreach at 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days
  • Early win: Quick setup/activation to demonstrate service quality
  • Satisfaction tracking: Monitor satisfaction scores and intervene if dropping
  • Success metric: Reduce 0-3 month churn from current X% to <15%

2. Provide Specialized Tech Support for Senior Citizens

Figure 10 reveals Senior Citizens receive inadequate tech support adoption (significantly fewer than non-seniors), which directly correlates with their 40%+ churn rate.

  • Action: Mandate tech support enrollment for ALL senior customers at signup
  • Senior-Friendly Support: Phone-first support channel (not chat), patient representatives trained for senior needs
  • Education: Monthly tech tips calls to help seniors maximize their service
  • Simplification: Simplified service plans (3-tier instead of 10+)
  • Success metric: Increase senior tech support adoption to >60%, reduce senior churn from 40% to <25%

3. Fiber Optic Customer Strategy - Reduce Price + Lock in Contracts

Fiber Optic customers face the perfect storm: high cost + month-to-month contracts. Address both:

  • Contract Incentives: Offer 6-month or 1-year contracts at $10-20/month discount for Fiber Optic customers
  • Bundle Strategy: Package tech support + device protection with Fiber Optic (justifies cost, adds value)
  • Tiered Pricing: Introduce lower-cost Fiber Optic tier for price-sensitive customers
  • Early Lock-In: During critical 0-3 month window, aggressively promote longer contracts
  • Success metric: Move 50% of Fiber Optic customers to 12+ month contracts, reduce Fiber churn by 15%

4. Encourage Auto-Pay for All Customers

  • Reduce friction in payment (auto-pay reduces billing-related churn)
  • Offer small discount ($2-5/month) for customers on auto-pay
  • Reduce electronic check usage (less reliable payment method)

All Visualizations (11 Figures)

Figure Title Key Insight
Figure 0 Churn Rate by Partnership Status Non-partnered customers have higher churn
Figure 1 Churn Rate by Contract Type Month-to-month: 42% churn vs. 2-year: 3% churn
Figure 2 Churn Rate by Tenure Duration New customers (0-3mo): 50%+ churn; 50+mo customers: <5% churn
Figure 3 Tenure Distribution: Retained vs Churned Churned customers cluster in 0-10 month range
Figure 4 Monthly Charges: Churned vs Retained Churned customers have slightly higher median charges
Figure 5 Churn Rate by Internet Service Type Fiber Optic: ~42%
Figure 6 Churn Rate by Phone Service Minor difference; not a primary driver
Figure 7 Churn Rate by Senior Citizen Status Senior Citizens: 41%
Figure 8 Monthly Charges by Internet Service Fiber Optic ($80-100) >> DSL ($40-70) >> No Service ($20-30)
Figure 9 Fiber Optic Subscriber Contracts Most Fiber customers are on month-to-month contracts
Figure 10 Tech Support Adoption by Senior Status Senior Citizens have significantly lower tech support adoption

Dataset Information

  • Source: Telco Customer Churn (Kaggle)
  • Total Records: 7,043 customers
  • Total Columns: 21 attributes
  • Attributes Analyzed:
    • Demographics: Gender, Senior Citizen, Partner, Dependents
    • Services: Phone Service, Internet Service, Online Security, Online Backup, Device Protection, Tech Support, Streaming TV, Streaming Movies
    • Contract & Billing: Contract, Tenure, Monthly Charges, Total Charges, Paperless Billing, Payment Method
    • Target: Churn (Yes/No)

Files in This Repository

future-interns-task-2/
├── task2_analysis.ipynb                              # Full Jupyter notebook with code + visualizations + insights
├── README.md                                         # This file
├── data/
│   └── WA_Fn-UseC_-Telco-Customer-Churn.csv         # Original dataset (7,043 records)
└── results/
    ├── 00_churn_rate_by_partnership.png
    ├── 01_churn_by_contract.png
    ├── 02_churn_by_tenure.png
    ├── 03_tenure_distribution.png
    ├── 04_charges_comparison.png
    ├── 05_churn_by_internet_service.png
    ├── 06_churn_by_phone_service_availability.png
    ├── 07_churn_by_citizenship_status.png
    ├── 09_monthly_charges_by_internet_type.png
    ├── 10_fiber_optics_contracts.png
    └── 11_support_level_by_status.png

How to Use This Analysis

Prerequisites

  • Python 3.7+
  • Jupyter Notebook
  • Required packages: pandas, matplotlib, seaborn, numpy, openpyxl

Installation & Setup

# Install required packages
pip install jupyter pandas matplotlib seaborn numpy openpyxl

# Navigate to project directory
cd future-interns-task-2

# Start Jupyter Notebook
jupyter notebook

# Open task2_analysis.ipynb in the browser interface

Running the Analysis

  1. Open task2_analysis.ipynb in Jupyter Notebook
  2. Run cells sequentially using Shift+Enter
  3. Or click Cell → Run All to execute entire notebook at once
  4. Visualizations (PNG files) automatically save to ./results/ folder
  5. Review findings in the final "Final Report" section

Business Impact & ROI

Current State (Baseline):

  • Churn Rate: 26.5%
  • Losing ~1,869 customers from 7,043 total
  • Estimated annual revenue loss: [calculate based on customer LTV]

With Recommended Actions:

Action Target Impact Timeline
New Customer Retention Program Reduce 0-3mo churn from 50% to 35% 3 months
Senior Citizen Tech Support Reduce senior churn from 41% to 30% 2 months
Fiber Optic Contract Lock-in Move 50% to 12+ month contracts 6 months
Combined Impact Reduce overall churn to 20% 6 months

Estimated ROI:

  • Retain additional ~460 customers annually
  • Increased CLV across all segments
  • Reduced acquisition costs (retention cheaper than acquisition)

Key Findings Summary

  • Tenure is destiny — First 3 months determine 80% of churn risk
  • Fiber = Premium + Fragile — High cost + short contracts = high churn
  • Seniors need help — 41% churn due to lack of tech support
  • Contracts matter — Month-to-month = 14x churn vs. 2-year
  • Quick wins available — Tech support, onboarding, contract incentives are all implementable now

Author

Regis Alain Udahemuka
Ashesi University | Computer Science (BSc)
Future Interns Data Science & Analytics Internship
CIN: FIT/MAY26/DS18653


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Future interns task 2: Customer Retention and churn analysis.

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