A free, real-time dashboard that aggregates key economic indicators used by economists and institutional investors to assess recession probability. Tracks the signals that historically precede economic downturns.
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- Recession Probability Score — An aggregated probability score based on multiple leading indicators, updated in real time
- Yield Curve Monitor — Tracks the 2-year/10-year and 3-month/10-year Treasury spreads, historically the most reliable recession predictors
- Unemployment Rate Trends & Sahm Rule — Monitors unemployment data and the Sahm Rule indicator, which triggers when the 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low
- Fed Funds Rate & FOMC Decisions — Current federal funds rate and recent Federal Reserve policy decisions
- Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) — The Conference Board's composite index of 10 leading indicators
- Consumer Confidence Index — Tracks consumer sentiment, a forward-looking indicator of spending and economic health
- ISM Manufacturing PMI — Purchasing Managers' Index readings above or below the critical 50 threshold
- GDP Growth Rate — Quarterly real GDP growth with trend analysis
- Initial Jobless Claims — Weekly unemployment claims data, an early signal of labor market deterioration
- Housing Starts — New residential construction activity, a leading indicator of economic momentum
- Credit Spreads — The gap between corporate bond yields and Treasuries, reflecting market risk perception
The dashboard aggregates indicators that have historically preceded recessions with high reliability. The yield curve, for example, has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955. However, no single indicator or model can predict recessions with certainty — timing and false signals are always possible.
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, identifies the start of a recession when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. It has accurately identified every recession since 1970.
Data updates vary by indicator. Some metrics (like Treasury yields and credit spreads) update daily, while others (GDP, unemployment) update monthly or quarterly. The dashboard pulls from official government and institutional data sources.
A high recession probability doesn't mean a recession is guaranteed. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocation, building an emergency fund, reducing high-interest debt, and consulting with a financial advisor about defensive positioning strategies.
- War Room Dashboard — Real-time market intelligence and sentiment tracking
- Capital Rotation Dashboard — Track how institutional money moves between sectors and asset classes
Part of the BullRun Forever Toolkit — free calculators and dashboards for smarter financial decisions.
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This dashboard is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or economic advice. Economic indicators can produce false signals, and past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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