Rust trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. It automates hedging and position management on BTC 5-minute binary (Up/Down) markets: lock profit when the combined cost per pair is favorable, and adjust exposure when the opposite side is rising and PnL is skewed.
Repository: github.com/Poly-Tutor/5min-btc-polymarket-trading-bot
Follow these steps in order. You do not need Polymarket API keys to try simulation mode.
| Step | What to do |
|---|---|
| 1 | Install Rust from rustup.rs. Open a new terminal and run rustc --version — you should see 1.70 or newer. |
| 2 | Clone this repo (see Installation) and cd into the project folder. |
| 3 | Build: cargo build --release (first build may take several minutes). |
| 4 | Run in simulation: cargo run --release -- --simulation — no real orders; output goes to the console and history.toml. |
| 5 | Read logic.md to understand lock, expansion, and when the bot trades vs. sits flat. |
| 6 | Live trading: create config.json from config.example.json, add your Polymarket credentials, then run with --production --config config.json (see Configuration and Usage). |
Windows (PowerShell): use Copy-Item config.example.json config.json instead of cp. Use the same cargo commands as below.
Problems? Check Requirements, confirm your Rust toolchain is current, and open an issue with your OS and the exact error text.
We buy Up and Down so that cost per pair (Up + Down) < $1. Whichever side wins pays out $1 per share, so we can lock in profit regardless of outcome. The bot only adds a side when the resulting average cost per pair stays under your cap (for example 0.99).
how.to.run.5min.bot-new.mp4
- 5-minute BTC only: Trades 5m binary Up/Down markets for BTC on Polymarket.
- Lock rule: Buys the opposite side only when cost per pair stays under your cap (e.g. Up_avg + Down_ask ≤ 0.99), so you lock in edge.
- Expansion rule: When you cannot lock (cost would exceed max) but the other side is rising and its outcome PnL is worse, the bot buys that side to improve exposure (see logic.md).
- Ride the winner: When one side is clearly winning (trend UpRising/DownRising), the bot adds to that side to grow “PnL if that side wins.”
- PnL rebalance: If one outcome’s PnL is negative and you are not strongly trending the other way, it buys the weak side (within cost limits).
- Flat = no trade: When the short-term trend is Flat (no clear move), the bot only locks if conditions allow; otherwise it does not open new risk (Example 6 in logic.md).
- Simulation mode: Run with
--simulation(default) to log trades without sending orders. - Market resolution: Checks for closed markets, computes actual PnL, and logs “Total actual PnL (all time).”
- Timestamped logs: Price feed and history lines include
[YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SS]for easier debugging and backtesting.
The bot keeps positions per market (Up shares, Down shares, average prices). Each tick it:
- Updates trend from the last 4–5 price points (UpRising, DownRising, Flat, UpFalling, DownFalling).
- Lock: If adding the underweight side keeps cost per pair ≤
cost_per_pair_max→ buy that side (lock). - Expansion: If you cannot lock (cost would exceed max) but the other side is rising and “PnL if that side wins” is worse → buy that side (new leg / rebalance).
- Ride winner: If trend is UpRising or DownRising (and not Flat) → buy the rising side (within cost and buy limits).
- PnL rebalance: If one outcome’s PnL is negative and trend is not strongly the other way → buy the weak side (within limits).
- Trend fallback: DownFalling → can buy Up; UpFalling → can buy Down (no buy on Flat except lock).
Detailed examples (no position, only Up, only Down, have both, Flat, market close) are in logic.md.
- Rust 1.70 or newer — install via rustup and verify with
rustc --version. - For live trading: Polymarket API credentials (API key, secret, passphrase, and optionally private key / proxy wallet as required by your setup). Simulation mode does not send orders; you still get realistic logging.
Linux / macOS (bash):
git clone https://github.com/Poly-Tutor/5min-btc-polymarket-trading-bot.git
cd 5min-btc-polymarket-trading-bot
cargo build --releaseWindows (PowerShell):
git clone https://github.com/Poly-Tutor/5min-btc-polymarket-trading-bot.git
cd 5min-btc-polymarket-trading-bot
cargo build --releaseIf git or cargo is not recognized, install Git for Windows and Rust from rustup.rs, then restart the terminal.
-
Copy the example file to
config.json:cp config.example.json config.json
On Windows PowerShell:
Copy-Item config.example.json config.json -
Edit
config.json: setpolymarketfields (API key, secret, passphrase, and wallet fields if you use live trading). Use the same structure as config.example.json.
Security: config.json is gitignored. Do not commit API keys or private keys.
| Option | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
markets |
Assets to trade (this bot: BTC only) | ["btc"] |
timeframes |
Periods (this bot: 5m only) | ["5m"] |
cost_per_pair_max |
Max cost per pair when locking | 0.99 |
min_side_price |
Do not buy below this ask | 0.05 |
max_side_price |
Do not buy above this ask | 0.99 |
cooldown_seconds |
Min seconds between buys | 0 |
cooldown_seconds_1h |
Min seconds between buys (1h; N/A for 5m-only) | 45 |
shares |
Override size per order; null = default (BTC 5m = 24) |
null |
size_reduce_after_secs |
Start reducing size in last N seconds | 300 |
market_closure_check_interval_seconds |
How often to check for resolved markets | 20 |
Simulation (recommended first — no real orders):
cargo run -- --simulation
# or
cargo run --release -- --simulationLive trading (sends FAK orders to Polymarket):
cargo run --release -- --production --config config.jsonRedeem winnings for a resolved market:
cargo run --release -- --redeem --condition-id <CONDITION_ID>Logs go to history.toml (and your configured log target). Example price line:
[2026-02-04T23:17:23] BTC 5m Up Token BID:$0.52 ASK:$0.53 Down Token BID:$0.47 ASK:$0.48 remaining time:4m 12s
.
├── Cargo.toml
├── config.json # Your config (gitignored); use config.example.json as template
├── logic.md # Strategy examples (lock, expansion, ride winner, flat)
├── history.toml # Append-only trade/price log (gitignored in default .gitignore)
├── docs/
│ └── TARGET_STRATEGY_ANALYSIS.md
├── src/
│ ├── main.rs # CLI, config load, monitor + trader spawn
│ ├── config.rs # Config and defaults
│ ├── api.rs # Polymarket Gamma + CLOB API
│ ├── monitor.rs # Price feed, snapshot, timestamps
│ ├── trader.rs # Lock/expansion/ride-winner/PnL logic
│ ├── models.rs # API and market data types
│ └── bin/
│ └── analyze_target_history.rs # Analyze btc-5m.toml history
└── README.md
This bot is for educational and research purposes. Trading prediction markets involves risk of loss. Past behavior in simulation or backtests does not guarantee future results. Use at your own risk. The authors are not responsible for any financial loss.
- Issues & questions: GitHub Issues
- Telegram: @AlterEgo_Eth
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