Add deal-concentration risk metric and --max-concentration CI gate#6
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Add deal-concentration risk metric and --max-concentration CI gate#6cognis-digital wants to merge 1 commit into
cognis-digital wants to merge 1 commit into
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A weighted forecast can look healthy while resting almost entirely on one large, still-open deal; if it slips the number collapses. This adds a 'concentration' field to the Report — the share of the weighted forecast carried by the single largest open deal (0.0 when there is no forecast) — shown in the table and JSON output. The new --max-concentration CLI gate exits non-zero when concentration exceeds a threshold, letting CI flag a fragile, whale-dependent pipeline the same way --min-forecast / --min-win-rate guard the dollar and quality numbers. Backward compatible: concentration is appended to Report with a default, so existing construction is unaffected. Adds demo 18 and 11 tests.
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What
A weighted forecast can look healthy while resting almost entirely on a single large, still-open deal. If that one deal slips, the number collapses. This PR surfaces that fragility.
concentrationfield onReport— the share of the weighted forecast carried by the single largest open deal's expected value (0.0when there is no forecast). Included into_dict()/--format jsonand shown in thetableoutput.--max-concentrationCI gate — exits non-zero when concentration exceeds the given fraction, so a fragile, whale-dependent pipeline fails the build the same way--min-forecastand--min-win-rateguard the dollar and quality numbers.Why
RevOps and finance already gate on the total forecast and win rate, but a $1M forecast that is 80% one deal is a very different risk than the same $1M spread across ten. This makes that risk a first-class, gate-able signal.
Compatibility
concentrationis appended toReportwith a default value, so existing positional/keyword construction ofReportis unchanged. No existing public signature changes.Tests / demos
tests/test_concentration.py— 11 tests (metric math, unit-interval bound, backward-compat default, table/JSON surfacing, and the gate passing/failing).demos/18_concentration_risk.py— narrated scenario over the enterprise-ACV sample; wired intorun_all.pyanddocs/DEMOS.md.python -m pytest -q-> 312 passed.