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VALUE-05 — Repeatability and variability evidence #166

Description

@daniele21

Goal

Turn the already-implemented runtime measurement/statistics owners into an end-to-end repeatability workflow without inventing a confidence score: repeated executions of the exact same frozen experiment expose quality/runtime variability, denominators and failures so the user can judge how stable the evidence is.

Canonical semantics

  • A repeatability cohort is exact ExecutionFingerprint.fingerprint_id equality. Do not pool merely similar runs.
  • performance/single_request.py remains the owner of client-boundary request timing; evaluation must not create a second inference call just to measure it.
  • performance/statistics.py::summarize_distribution remains the owner of mean/median/stddev/CV and qualified p90/p95.
  • Run/sample failures and cancellations remain explicit denominators and are never converted to zero-valued measurements.
  • No universal confidence score, stability threshold, PASS/FAIL verdict or statistical significance claim is introduced by this slice.
  • Representative thermal/load/repeatability claims remain REAL_ENVIRONMENT evidence.

VALUE-05A — Canonical measured sample evidence

Wire the existing single-request measurement protocol into the normal evaluation inference path so successful SampleExecution evidence retains available client-provenance measurements (for example total latency and trustworthy token throughput) from the same inference used for evaluation. Preserve evidence-rich capture and one inference call per sample.

VALUE-05B — Exact-fingerprint repeatability projection

Add a versioned application/API read model for a retained Run that:

  • finds all completed Runs with the same exact fingerprint;
  • reports total/succeeded/failed/cancelled run counts;
  • reports total/succeeded/failed/cancelled sample-attempt counts;
  • projects per-run quality aggregate values and per-run means of matching client performance measurements;
  • uses summarize_distribution across those per-run values;
  • keeps percentile qualification and insufficient-repeat/unavailable states explicit.

VALUE-05C — Run Detail repeatability UX

Expose the repeatability projection in Run Detail with progressive disclosure. Show exact-fingerprint cohort size, denominators/failures and distribution evidence; do not imply a winner or verdict. Add deterministic browser/API coverage for available, insufficient-repeat and failure-denominator states.

VALUE-05D — EVID-002 representative acceptance

After final software convergence and fresh exact-head PRE_REAL, run controlled repeated real executions through Local LLM Server on representative hardware. Retain warmup/load assumptions, variability, failures and denominators. Hosted/fixture CI cannot satisfy this claim.

Acceptance

  • same experiment means exact fingerprint equality;
  • measurements come from the existing performance owner and the same inference call;
  • no frontend-authored statistical semantics;
  • p90/p95 remain qualified by the existing statistics owner;
  • failed/cancelled runs and samples remain visible in denominators;
  • old Runs without client measurements remain valid and render unavailable rather than fabricated;
  • deterministic software acceptance makes no representative device/thermal claim.

Activity

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