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feat(stats,probability): bias/EV assessment + coverage map (remix pt.1) - #71

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guigerdts merged 2 commits into
fix/rank-stale-healingfrom
feat/number-generation-remix-part1
Aug 25, 2026
Merged

guigerdts merged 2 commits into
fix/rank-stale-healingfrom
feat/number-generation-remix-part1

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Parte 1 de la refactor number-generation-remix.

Anade la evaluacion estadistica sobre la que se apoyara la generacion:

  • STE-14: chi_square_gof, runs_test (sobre series de suma por sorteo) y bias_report en statistics/engine.py + StatisticsService.bias_report().
  • EV-15: ev_service (combinaciones, EV por combinacion, EV de ticket, ventana de EV alta).
  • PM-08: coverage_map (COLD/NORMAL/HOT) + cold_boost_weights en probability_service.

Palancas legitimas (frecuencia historica + cobertura); no alteran la probabilidad de acierto. Sin cambios de generacion todavia.

…ration-remix

- statistics/engine: add chi_square_gof, runs_test (per-draw-sum series),
  bias_report + BiasReport dataclass (STE-14)
- statistics_service: expose bias_report() over draw history
- ev_service: combinations_count, combination_ev, estimate_ticket_ev,
  is_high_ev_window (EV-15, lever A payout-if-win)
- docs: Baloto official rules + engine audit + remix decision
- openspec: SDD change number-generation-remix (explore/proposal/spec/design/tasks)
- ProbabilityService.coverage_map(): classifies COLD/NORMAL/HOT from
  empirical frequency vs binomial expectation
- ProbabilityService.cold_boost_weights(): cold numbers get a coverage
  boost for the generator (lever C); uses statistics.engine.frequency
@guigerdts
guigerdts merged commit 4148b25 into fix/rank-stale-healing Aug 25, 2026
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