Backtesting popular Foundation models developed by Salesforce, Google, IBM, & Amazon that supports zero shot forecasting.

Datasets: Gold (GC=F), Crude Oil (CL=F), & S&P 500 (^GSPC) between the period 01-01-2001 to 30-04-2024 soucred from Yahoo Finance

Backtests: 2 year walk forward validation

In each forecasting iteration we forecast for the next 12 months.

Salesforce Moirai	Avg. MAPE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MAPE	Avg. sMAPE	Std.Dev. of Avg. sMAPE	Avg. MSE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MSE	Avg. MAE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MAE
Gold (GC=F)	13.11	7.01	13.69	8.07	155.65	135.83	10.13	5.60
Crude Oil (CL=F)	11.26	4.28	12.31	4.87	126371.39	76557.99	278.74	118.61
S&P 500 (^GSPC)	8.51	3.04	9.04	3.37	289118.98	170915.45	451.09	154.07

Google TimesFM	Avg. MAPE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MAPE	Avg. sMAPE	Std.Dev. of Avg. sMAPE	Avg. MSE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MSE	Avg. MAE	Std.Dev. of Avg. MAE
Gold (GC=F)	7.98	2.06	7.93	1.91	53.65	24.96	6.08	1.45
Crude Oil (CL=F)	20.54	8.33	23.97	10.38	371252.01	235903.49	503.96	226.51
S&P 500 (^GSPC)	11.22	1.94	12.10	2.20	492725.22	160837.08	604.94	121.81