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arena-ai-coding-agent edited this page Sep 26, 2026 · 2 revisions

Deep dives

This is where the mathematics and the engineering receipts live — the material that would otherwise make the README long and the EXPLAINME unreadable. The repository's EXPLAINME.adoc maps README claims to code and points here for the reasoning; this section is the reasoning.

Written for readers comfortable with statistics at graduate level and curious about the type-theoretic discipline around it. Academic and lab readers alike: the user-facing contracts are Analysis and Statistics Today; this section is why those contracts are shaped that way.

The seven dives

Dive Question it answers Status of its subject
Design Progression How did we get from raw R/Python scripts to this, and what did each layer add? historical + IN PLACE
Type Theory Meets Statistics What do types have to do with honest statistics? IN PLACE (the discipline)
Exact Arithmetic When is a number exact, and what does that buy? IN PLACE (descriptive layer)
Maximum Likelihood How does estimation work here, and what are "unsuccessful states"? PARTIAL (review pending)
Compositional Statistics Why offsets instead of normalising counts away? IN PLACE (offsets); COMING (compositional methods)
Epistemic Status What are "epistemic receipts", Σ-types, and warrants without soundness? IN PLACE (core); COMING (Evidence Mode UI)
Advanced Functionality What is the exact/compositional/occupancy/ordination suite, and why is it late? COMING / BLOCKED

The thread through all seven

A statistical result is only as good as the type of claim its numbers can carry. Most of the engineering here is making that notion executable:

  • exact / approximate / rounded are different types of claim and must not wear the same representation (Exact Arithmetic);
  • a fit is either warranted (converged, identified, within bounds) or it is an unsuccessful state — there is no third outcome called "a number" (Maximum Likelihood);
  • depth is a modelled quantity (an offset), not a dial to normalise away (Compositional Statistics);
  • and every carried result travels with its warrant — the reason it is admissible — without anyone claiming the warrant is the truth (Epistemic Status).

That thread is why the deep dives are one section and not seven essays.

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