Release record R3 + R4: outcomes, readiness, changelog, planning, calendar, Autoland eligibility

README.md

@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ Part of the [Hangar](https://github.com/jfillman/hangar) platform. Brand files:
 Tabs, in the order of a change's lifecycle: Overview, Pull Requests, Pipelines, Deployments, Releases, Topology,
 Images, SLOs, Notifications, App Configuration, Glidepath. Plus fleet dashboards (Ops Wall, Fleet Grid).
 
-- **Release Records**: structured release history, persisted as git commits, with compare and export; every release gets a tree name (ASPEN, BIRCH...), and a live **Next release** draft shows scope, open PRs, linked issues, candidate images and readiness before anything reaches Flight, with release notes the team writes; release modes (Hand-flown, Assisted) with a sign-off on the production release PR
+- **Release Records**: structured release history, persisted as git commits, with compare and export; every release gets a tree name (ASPEN, BIRCH...), and a live **Next release** draft shows scope, open PRs, linked issues, candidate images and readiness before anything reaches Flight, with release notes the team writes; release modes (Hand-flown, Assisted) with a sign-off on the production release PR; each record's outcome (clean, rolled back) written back, a changelog, opt-in GitHub Releases, scheduled releases with milestones and Jira links, and a fleet release calendar
 - **Release matrix**: which release is live in which environment, along the app's real promotion order
 - **Deployments ("Ground Control")**: plain-language troubleshooting, the six-step delivery path per environment, Argo CD Refresh, Sync, Force sync and Terminate, Rollout controls (resume, pause, abort, retry, restart, promote), Roll back
 - **App Configuration and Glidepath**: edit environment values and `cicd.yaml` through a real GitOps PR, never a direct commit

docs/index.md

@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ Tabs, in the order of a change's lifecycle: **Overview**, **Pull Requests**, **P
 **Releases**, **Topology**, **Images**, **SLOs**, **Notifications**, **App Configuration**, **Glidepath**. Plus a
 fleet-wide dashboard.
 
-- **Release Records**: structured release history, persisted as git commits, with compare and export; every release gets a tree name (ASPEN, BIRCH...), and a live **Next release** draft shows scope, open PRs, linked issues, candidate images and readiness before anything reaches Flight, with release notes the team writes; release modes (Hand-flown, Assisted) with a sign-off on the production release PR
+- **Release Records**: structured release history, persisted as git commits, with compare and export; every release gets a tree name (ASPEN, BIRCH...), and a live **Next release** draft shows scope, open PRs, linked issues, candidate images and readiness before anything reaches Flight, with release notes the team writes; release modes (Hand-flown, Assisted) with a sign-off on the production release PR; each record's outcome (clean, rolled back) written back, a changelog, opt-in GitHub Releases, scheduled releases with milestones and Jira links, and a fleet release calendar
 - **Release matrix**: which release is live in which environment, along the app's real promotion order
 - **Deployments ("Ground Control")**: plain-language troubleshooting, the six-step delivery path per environment, Argo CD Refresh, Sync, Force sync and Terminate, Rollout controls (resume, pause, abort, retry, restart, promote), Roll back
 - **Pull requests and checks**: the PRs in flight and their gates

docs/release-records.md

@@ -74,6 +74,51 @@ in Compare and when opened. The list also uses the guardrail results frozen in e
 the opened record falls back to. Approvals added to a record's human context
 after release are shown as acknowledgements and earn nothing.
 
+## Outcome (what happened after it shipped)
+
+Each record gets an **outcome**, decided in its sign-off environment from Glidepath's release-tracking records:
+
+| Outcome | When |
+|---|---|
+| **clean** | It ran healthy there and a newer release replaced it, or it stayed healthy for the whole 7-day bake window. |
+| **rolled back** | A rollback release replaced it. The record names the release it rolled back to and the reason. |
+| **replaced before healthy** | A newer release replaced it there before it ever went healthy. |
+| **stopped before production** | It never reached production, and every environment it did reach moved on. |
+
+Until it is final, a record shows its live state (rolling out, or *baking · day 3 of 7*). Once final, Tower's
+backend writes the outcome into the record with one PR per release (branch `release-record-outcome-<app>-*`,
+excluded from the release gates like the record PRs themselves), together with the production sign-off when the
+record was written before that PR merged (an app with staging before production). Glidepath sweeps its tracking
+records after 14 days, so releases older than that, and cloud targets, have no outcome. SLO burn during the bake
+window is not measured yet: kind-prod's Prometheus is off, so there is no production metric to read.
+
+The record's score is now called **readiness**: how ready the release was when it shipped (guardrails, signed
+and attested, sign-offs). The old "+5, no incidents" points are gone; Tower never tracked incidents, so every
+release got them. What happened afterwards is the outcome, shown beside the score, not folded into it.
+
+**GitHub Release (opt-in per release).** Tick "Publish a GitHub Release" in the draft, and once the release is
+healthy in production Tower creates `v<version>` at the image's commit in the app repo, named after the release
+(`CEDAR · v1.9.0`), with the draft's notes as the body. It never moves a tag: if `v<version>` already tags another
+commit (the version was not bumped), it publishes nothing and the record says why.
+
+**Changelog.** "Changelog" beside the Release records title lists every committed release's notes, newest first.
+
+## Planning a release
+
+- **Target date** and **milestone** in the draft make it a scheduled release. The draft card then lists the
+  milestone's open issues as **Planned**, and readiness gains *Target date* (late shows as a to-do) and *Planned
+  issues closed*.
+- **Jira**: set `tower.jira.baseUrl` in app-config and Jira keys (`BAG-12`) in PR titles, bodies and branch names
+  link to it, next to the GitHub issues.
+- **Release calendar** on the Ops Wall: every app's next release by name, target date (late ones marked), owner,
+  note count, what is on its way to production, and how its last release ended.
+- **Announcements**: when a release PR to an app's sign-off environment opens ("CEDAR is ready for prod") and when
+  it merges ("CEDAR released to prod", with who signed off). They are Backstage notifications, in Tower's Activity
+  feed under Releases; no Slack integration is configured.
+- **Autoland eligibility** under the mode bar: what an app would need before Autoland could land releases on its
+  own (tests that report results, a canary rollout in production, production metrics, at least five recorded
+  outcomes with under 15% rolled back, and an average readiness of 80). Display only; Autoland is not available yet.
+
 ## Release names
 
 Every release gets a tree name, in order per app, the way hurricanes are named: ASPEN, BIRCH, CEDAR, DOGWOOD...

src/AutolandEligibility.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+import { useState } from 'react';
+import { makeStyles } from '@material-ui/core/styles';
+import type { Theme } from '@material-ui/core/styles';
+import { fontMono, useHangarTokens, type HangarTokens } from './brand/tokens';
+import { displayScore, type ReleaseRecord } from './useReleaseRecords';
+import type { ReadinessState } from './nextRelease';
+import { Hint, TextLink } from './ui';
+
+// Autoland eligibility (Release Record R4). Autoland, the mode where releases land in production with
+// no human, is not available yet; this says what an app would need before it could be, from its own
+// release history, the way a team earns an exemption from change review by meeting set criteria.
+// Display only: it changes nothing about how the app releases.
+
+export interface EligibilityItem {
+  id: string;
+  label: string;
+  state: ReadinessState;
+  detail: string;
+}
+
+const RECENT = 5;
+
+export function autolandEligibility(records: ReleaseRecord[], signoffEnv?: string): EligibilityItem[] {
+  const recent = [...records].sort((a, b) => Date.parse(b.createdAt) - Date.parse(a.createdAt)).slice(0, RECENT);
+  const closed = records.filter(r => r.outcome?.result);
+  const rolledBack = closed.filter(r => r.outcome?.result === 'rolled-back').length;
+  const items: EligibilityItem[] = [];
+
+  const withTests = recent.filter(r => r.testResults.length > 0).length;
+  items.push({
+    id: 'tests',
+    label: 'Tests report results',
+    state: recent.length > 0 && withTests === recent.length ? 'ok' : 'todo',
+    detail: `${withTests} of the last ${recent.length} releases carry per-test results`,
+  });
+
+  const prod = recent[0]?.deployments.find(d => d.env.toLowerCase() === (signoffEnv ?? '').toLowerCase());
+  items.push({
+    id: 'canary',
+    label: 'Canary rollout in production',
+    state: prod?.rolloutStrategy === 'canary' ? 'ok' : 'todo',
+    detail: prod?.rolloutStrategy ? `${signoffEnv} rolls out with ${prod.rolloutStrategy}` : `No rollout strategy seen on ${signoffEnv ?? 'production'}`,
+  });
+
+  items.push({
+    id: 'metrics',
+    label: 'Production metrics',
+    state: 'todo',
+    detail: "Judging a canary and the bake window needs production metrics; kind-prod's Prometheus is off",
+  });
+
+  const cfr = closed.length > 0 ? rolledBack / closed.length : undefined;
+  items.push({
+    id: 'outcomes',
+    label: 'Clean release history',
+    state: closed.length >= RECENT && cfr !== undefined && cfr < 0.15 ? 'ok' : 'todo',
+    detail:
+      closed.length >= RECENT
+        ? `${rolledBack} of ${closed.length} recorded releases rolled back (${Math.round((cfr ?? 0) * 100)}%, needs under 15%)`
+        : `${closed.length} recorded outcome${closed.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}; needs at least ${RECENT}`,
+  });
+
+  const avg = recent.length ? Math.round(recent.reduce((n, r) => n + displayScore(r), 0) / recent.length) : 0;
+  items.push({
+    id: 'readiness',
+    label: 'High readiness',
+    state: recent.length > 0 && avg >= 80 ? 'ok' : 'todo',
+    detail: `Average readiness ${avg} over the last ${recent.length} releases (needs 80)`,
+  });
+  return items;
+}
+
+const useStyles = makeStyles<Theme, { t: HangarTokens }>(() => ({
+  wrap: { marginBottom: 12, fontSize: 12.5 },
+  list: { display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 4, marginTop: 6 },
+  item: { display: 'flex', gap: 8, alignItems: 'baseline' },
+  mark: { fontFamily: fontMono, width: 14, textAlign: 'center' },
+  name: { color: ({ t }) => t.textHi },
+  detail: { color: ({ t }) => t.textFaint },
+}));
+
+export function AutolandEligibility({ records, signoffEnv }: { records: ReleaseRecord[]; signoffEnv?: string }) {
+  const t = useHangarTokens();
+  const classes = useStyles({ t });
+  const [open, setOpen] = useState(false);
+  const items = autolandEligibility(records, signoffEnv);
+  const ok = items.filter(i => i.state === 'ok').length;
+  return (
+    <div className={classes.wrap}>
+      <TextLink expanded={open} onClick={() => setOpen(v => !v)}>
+        {`Autoland eligibility · ${ok} of ${items.length}`}
+      </TextLink>
+      {open && (
+        <div className={classes.list}>
+          {items.map(i => (
+            <div key={i.id} className={classes.item}>
+              <span className={classes.mark} style={{ color: i.state === 'ok' ? t.good : t.amberInk }}>
+                {i.state === 'ok' ? '✓' : '!'}
+              </span>
+              <span className={classes.name}>{i.label}</span>
+              <span className={classes.detail}>{i.detail}</span>
+            </div>
+          ))}
+          <Hint>Autoland is not available yet. This says what this app would need first; it changes nothing today.</Hint>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  );
+}

src/NextReleaseCard.test.tsx

@@ -33,8 +33,8 @@ const next: NextRelease = {
   scopeMayBeIncomplete: false,
   incoming: [pr(221, 'feat: lost-bag claims', 'open')],
   issues: [
-    { number: 198, url: 'https://github.com/o/bags/issues/198', prNumber: 11, merged: true },
-    { number: 203, url: 'https://github.com/o/bags/issues/203', prNumber: 221, merged: false },
+    { label: '#198', url: 'https://github.com/o/bags/issues/198', prNumber: 11, merged: true },
+    { label: '#203', url: 'https://github.com/o/bags/issues/203', prNumber: 221, merged: false },
   ],
   changeCategories: { features: 1, fixes: 1, chores: 0 },
   breaking: false,

src/NextReleaseCard.tsx

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import { Button, Card, EmptyNote, Hint, SectionTitle, StatusChip, TextLink, Tile
 
 const SCOPE_SHOWN = 6;
 const INCOMING_SHOWN = 3;
+const PLANNED_SHOWN = 4;
 
 const useStyles = makeStyles<Theme, { t: HangarTokens }>(() => ({
   // The kit Card, in the dashed amber of the record's Human context band.
@@ -37,6 +38,7 @@ const useStyles = makeStyles<Theme, { t: HangarTokens }>(() => ({
   item: { display: 'flex', gap: 8, alignItems: 'baseline', fontSize: 12.5, padding: '2px 0', minWidth: 0 },
   prTitle: { color: ({ t }) => t.textHi, overflow: 'hidden', textOverflow: 'ellipsis', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' },
   faint: { color: ({ t }) => t.textFaint, fontSize: 12 },
+  planned: { borderBottom: ({ t }) => `1px solid ${t.lineSoft}`, paddingBottom: 8, marginBottom: 4, display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 4 },
   sub: { borderTop: ({ t }) => `1px solid ${t.lineSoft}`, marginTop: 8, paddingTop: 8, display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 4 },
   issues: { display: 'flex', flexWrap: 'wrap', gap: 8, fontFamily: fontMono, fontSize: 11, marginTop: 4 },
   tag: { fontFamily: fontMono, fontSize: 11.5, color: ({ t }) => t.textHi },
@@ -120,6 +122,30 @@ export function NextReleaseCard({
     >
       <div className={classes.grid}>
         <Tile className={classes.column}>
+          {next.planned?.milestone && (
+            <div className={classes.planned}>
+              <SectionTitle level={2}>
+                {`Planned · ${next.planned.milestone.title} · ${next.planned.issues.filter(i => i.state === 'closed').length} of ${next.planned.issues.length} closed`}
+              </SectionTitle>
+              {next.planned.issues
+                .filter(i => i.state === 'open')
+                .slice(0, PLANNED_SHOWN)
+                .map(i => (
+                  <div key={i.number} className={classes.item}>
+                    <TextLink href={i.url}>#{i.number}</TextLink>
+                    <span className={classes.prTitle} title={i.title}>
+                      {i.title}
+                    </span>
+                    {i.assignee && <span className={classes.faint}>{i.assignee}</span>}
+                  </div>
+                ))}
+              {next.planned.issues.filter(i => i.state === 'open').length > PLANNED_SHOWN && (
+                <span className={classes.faint}>
+                  + {next.planned.issues.filter(i => i.state === 'open').length - PLANNED_SHOWN} more open
+                </span>
+              )}
+            </div>
+          )}
           <SectionTitle level={2}>
             {`Scope · ${scope.length} PR${scope.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}`}
             {next.changeCategories.features + next.changeCategories.fixes > 0 &&
@@ -145,7 +171,7 @@ export function NextReleaseCard({
             <div className={classes.issues}>
               <span className={classes.faint}>Closes</span>
               {scopeIssues.map(i => (
-                <TextLink key={i.url} href={i.url}>#{i.number}</TextLink>
+                <TextLink key={i.url} href={i.url}>{i.label}</TextLink>
               ))}
             </div>
           )}
@@ -166,7 +192,7 @@ export function NextReleaseCard({
               <div className={classes.issues}>
                 <span className={classes.faint}>Would close</span>
                 {incomingIssues.map(i => (
-                  <TextLink key={i.url} href={i.url}>#{i.number}</TextLink>
+                  <TextLink key={i.url} href={i.url}>{i.label}</TextLink>
                 ))}
               </div>
             )}

src/RecentActivityPanel.tsx

@@ -74,7 +74,9 @@ const CATEGORY_TOPICS: Record<Exclude<Category, 'all'>, string[]> = {
   // before this fix, silently filtered out by the old known-topics list.
   // 'rolled-back' (a rollback release went healthy, ADR-0021 phase 4) and 'rollout' (Rollout actions, a skipped
   // canary analysis, pod restarts) joined 2026-10-11: they were sent but never shown here.
-  releases: ['deploy', 'release', 'deploying', 'release-outcome', 'rolled-back', 'rollout'],
+  // 'release-record' (a release ready for / released to production) and 'release-signoff' (a Hand-flown release
+  // that shipped without a sign-off) joined 2026-10-14 (Release Record R2/R4, backstage releaseSignoffPoll.ts).
+  releases: ['deploy', 'release', 'deploying', 'release-outcome', 'rolled-back', 'rollout', 'release-record', 'release-signoff'],
   environments: ['env', 'preview-env'],
   config: ['config'],
   slos: ['slo'],
@@ -174,6 +176,8 @@ const TOPIC_META: Record<string, TopicMeta> = {
   images: { label: 'Cleanup', icon: ImageIcon },
   'rolled-back': { label: 'Rollback', icon: ReleaseIcon },
   rollout: { label: 'Rollout', icon: SyncIcon },
+  'release-record': { label: 'Release', icon: ReleaseIcon },
+  'release-signoff': { label: 'Sign-off', icon: ReleaseIcon },
   // Break-glass debug sessions (phase C, G12): requests, approvals, opens, ends, glass broken, reviews.
   breakglass: { label: 'Break-glass', icon: BreakglassIcon },
 };