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AI Work Index — Singapore

V5 is the live structural score: a deterministic 3-layer model with latent-source posterior exposure, task-mode adjustment, human bottleneck, and market resilience. Prior V4.2 baselines and V4.3 shadow artifacts remain published for auditability. V5 adds transition-adjusted risk, realized-risk layers, and calibrated uncertainty diagnostics.

Live Site | Methodology | Calculator | Data

Key Numbers

  • 562 occupations scored across 9 major groups
  • 88 synthetic roles (product manager, data scientist, delivery rider, startup founder...)
  • 27% face high+ AI risk (152 occupations)
  • SGD 56B Est. annual wage pool under pressure
  • 50% average AI task overlap across all occupations
  • 4-source exposure ensemble: Felten AIOE + Anthropic observed usage + Eloundou GPT exposure + ILO 2025

How It Works

Three-layer deterministic scoring — no LLM in the pipeline:

  1. Exposure — reliability-weighted 4-source ensemble: AIOE (2021), Anthropic Economic Index (2026), Eloundou GPTs-are-GPTs (2024), ILO Refined Index (2025), blended using latent-source posterior in V5.
  2. Human Bottleneck — Pizzinelli theta from O*NET Work Context (judgment, presence, coordination)
  3. Market Resilience — MOM employment/wage trends + SOL/JiD demand signals + Anthropic calibration
net_risk = exposure × (1 − bottleneck) × market_modifier

Published as risk bands (Very Low through Very High) with visible confidence, retained V4.2 baselines, and task-adjusted bootstrap/stability diagnostics.

Validation

  • BLS cross-country: live convergent cross-check against US BLS projections
  • Cluster-level: directional check against Singapore labour-monitor clusters
  • Release pipeline: validated end to end with published artifacts, checksums, claims matrix, and shadow-model governance outputs
  • Methodology page: aiworkindex.pages.dev/methodology

Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/kirso/aiworkindex
cd aiworkindex
bun install
bun run build:release-data  # Refresh all release datasets and metadata
bun run scripts/score.ts        # Score all 562 occupations
bun run validate                 # Run release and data-contract validation
bun run dev                      # Start dev server
bun run build                    # Build 672 prerendered pages

Data Sources

Source What Year
MOM Singapore 562 SSOC occupations, wages, employment 2024-2025
Felten AIOE AI exposure per SOC (academic index) 2021
Anthropic Economic Index Observed AI usage (HuggingFace, CC-BY) Jan 2026
Eloundou et al. GPT-4 task-level exposure (Science, 2024) 2024
ILO Refined Index ISCO-08 exposure (52K expert data points) May 2025
O*NET Work Context, Job Zones, Task Statements 2020
MOM SOL 2026 Shortage Occupation List Nov 2025
MOM Jobs in Demand In-demand occupation flags Dec 2025
US BLS Employment projections 2024-2034 (convergent cross-check) Aug 2025

Singapore Context

Each occupation page shows:

  • Education level (O*NET Job Zones → Singapore labels)
  • Progressive Wage Model coverage (57 occupations in 9 PWM sectors)
  • Licensed profession flag (53 strict + 23 partial)
  • Foreign worker dependency (73 very high + 33 high + 45 moderate)
  • SkillsFuture career conversion eligibility (154 occupations)
  • Industry footprint + worker profile from official Singapore labour tables
  • Transition infrastructure from Jobs Transformation Maps, CareersFinder, WSQ, and SkillsFuture / WSG programmes

Data Download

Research Library

  • Public registry: aiworkindex.pages.dev/research
  • Machine-readable artifact: static/data/research-library.json
  • Live methodology references are now generated from the same canonical research registry used by reports and release governance.

Tech Stack

  • SvelteKit 5 + Svelte 5 runes (static site, adapter-static)
  • Tailwind CSS v4 + shadcn-svelte (Bits UI)
  • D3.js for visualization layout
  • TypeScript scoring pipeline (Bun runtime)
  • Satori + Resvg for OG image generation
  • Deployed on Cloudflare Workers

Limitations

  • Exposure data age: AIOE is from 2021 (pre-GPT-4). Ensemble with newer sources mitigates but doesn't eliminate.
  • Employment granularity: detailed Singapore occupation counts are not publicly released. estimated_sg_employment_thousands is a labeled sub-major allocation, and wage-pool analysis uses a separate labeled BLS-weighted proxy.
  • Market modifier weights: 0.6/0.4 momentum/scarcity split is calibrated, not empirically derived.
  • Cluster-level labour data: Same vacancy/hiring data for all occupations in each of 3 clusters.
  • Synthetic role weights: Expert-assigned SSOC blends, not validated against job posting data.

License

MIT

Author

Kirill So · LinkedIn · X

Built with Claude (Anthropic) & GPT (OpenAI)

About

AI Work Index — 562 Singapore occupations and 80 modern roles scored for AI displacement risk. Deterministic three-layer model, no LLM in scoring. Built with SvelteKit 5.

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