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Add ROI framework and three-year NPV worksheet for enterprise Claude seat purchases - #76

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malston merged 4 commits into
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Jun 29, 2026
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Add ROI framework and three-year NPV worksheet for enterprise Claude seat purchases#76
malston merged 4 commits into
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docs/roi-framework

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@malston malston commented Jun 29, 2026

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Summary

Adds two companion articles to the enterprise rollout binder, both in 00-overview/, for a company weighing a per-seat Claude Enterprise purchase as a broad enterprise AI investment:

  1. ROI Framework (roi-framework.md, weight 3) -- the single-year decision model.
  2. Three-Year NPV Worksheet (three-year-npv-worksheet.md, weight 4) -- the multi-year discounted view, in the fill-in style of context-budget-worksheet.md.

The worksheet carries the framework's illustrative figures across three years (adoption ramp + end-of-year discounting) so the two pages reconcile.

ROI Framework covers

  • The equation, with the two honesty levers (value-conversion factor, active-seat ratio) up front.
  • Cost (TCO): subscription, integration, enablement, admin, adoption drag; NPV for the multi-year view.
  • Benefit: category-to-measurement table anchored on DORA/SPACE for engineering and time-and-task studies elsewhere.
  • Value-conversion factor, Forrester TEI risk adjustment, adoption weighting.
  • A worked example, baseline-before-you-buy, and a "where the number lies" list.

NPV Worksheet covers

  • The discount mechanic and convention (end-of-year, Year-0 setup at DF 1.0).
  • Inputs table, year-by-year build, headline results (NPV, ROI, payback, IRR).
  • Sensitivity table plus a break-even benefit multiplier (~42% of plan) as the margin-of-safety headline.
  • Fill-in steps.

Notes for review

  • No asserted pricing. Claude Enterprise seat pricing is negotiated (contact-sales); the models run on variables and all dollar figures are labeled illustrative.
  • Verify before customer use: Forrester TEI bucket naming / the commissioned Claude study, and the DORA/SPACE attributions, against authoritative sources.
  • Follows STYLE-GUIDE.md; hugo --gc --minify builds clean (105 pages).
  • Internal links use the binder's relative-path convention.

A buyer-facing decision framework for a per-seat Claude Enterprise
purchase viewed as a broad enterprise AI investment. Composes a
financial chassis (TCO, NPV, payback), the Forrester TEI risk-adjusted
wrapper, and DORA/SPACE measurement for the benefit side. Includes a
value-conversion factor, adoption weighting, a worked example with
clearly-labeled illustrative inputs, and a baseline-before-you-buy
section.

Seat pricing is kept as a variable since Claude Enterprise pricing is
negotiated; no per-seat figure is asserted as fact.
Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings June 29, 2026 21:16
A fill-in worksheet (in the style of context-budget-worksheet) that
produces the multi-year discounted view: three-year NPV, payback, and
sensitivity for a Claude Enterprise seat purchase. Carries the ROI
framework's illustrative figures across three years with an adoption
ramp and end-of-year discounting so the two pages reconcile.

Includes a break-even benefit multiplier (~42% of plan) as the honest
margin-of-safety headline. Pricing stays a variable; all dollar figures
are labeled illustrative.
@malston malston changed the title Add ROI framework article for enterprise Claude seat purchases Add ROI framework and three-year NPV worksheet for enterprise Claude seat purchases Jun 29, 2026

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Pull request overview

Adds a new enterprise-rollout binder article that provides a fill-in ROI/payback model for per-seat Claude Enterprise purchases, intended to sit immediately after the Executive Summary and serve as the shared financial “math layer” for related pages.

Changes:

  • Introduces an ROI + payback equation with explicit “honesty levers” (value-conversion factor, active-seat ratio).
  • Defines a TCO breakdown and benefit measurement categories (with DORA/SPACE and time-and-task study guidance).
  • Includes a worked example, baseline guidance, and a checklist of common modeling failure modes.

Benefit scales with active usage, cost scales with seats purchased. A rollout at 70% active adoption and one at 30% produce wildly different ROI off the same license bill. Model the active-seat ratio explicitly and forecast it rising across the ramp rather than assuming day-one saturation.

```text
Effective benefit = per-active-user benefit x (active seats / purchased seats)

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Fixed in 5708641. Confirmed the diagnosis: per-active-user benefit ($3,240) x (active/purchased = 0.7) = $2,268, i.e. benefit per purchased seat, not the total the label implied. Rather than relabel to per-purchased-seat units, restated it as total benefit so it matches how the rest of the model (worked example, NPV worksheet) uses benefit:

Total benefit = per-active-user benefit x active seats
              = per-active-user benefit x purchased seats x active-seat ratio

This reconciles numerically ($3,240 x 500 x 0.7 = $1,134,000, matching the worked example) and makes the active-seat-ratio scaling the section is about explicit.

malston added 2 commits June 29, 2026 15:49
- Correct the payback figure: $120,000 / ($400,000/12) is 3.6 months,
  not ~4, and it is an undiscounted payback. Relabel from 'Discounted
  payback' to 'Payback (undiscounted)' so it no longer contradicts the
  page's end-of-year discounting convention.
- Show discount factors at 5 decimals so the present-value column
  reproduces when a reader multiplies the displayed factors.

Caught by PR review arithmetic recomputation.
- Correct the adoption-weighting equation. As written it multiplied a
  per-active-user benefit by the active/purchased ratio, yielding a
  per-purchased-seat figure mislabeled as 'Effective benefit'. Restate
  it as total benefit = per-active-user benefit x active seats
  (= per-active-user benefit x purchased seats x active-seat ratio),
  which reconciles with the worked example ($3,240 x 500 x 0.7 =
  $1,134,000) and makes the active-seat-ratio scaling explicit.
@malston
malston merged commit 17512bd into main Jun 29, 2026
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malston deleted the docs/roi-framework branch June 29, 2026 21:58
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2 participants