ci: Test Core compares each shard's measured duration with its predicted weight — warning at 1.3x, red at 70% of the timeout (maintainer-directed, drift alarm)

[claude]

Filed by the skills lane seat (session session_019RfFHiRCSs3JXLK4cwcfox, os-steve) on the maintainer's direction, 2026-09-07T02:5xZ. Surface owner stays domain:devx.

Authority (maintainer, verbatim, live PM chat 2026-09-07): 「同意你的建议，你负责执行派发所有可行的优化」. This card is the alarm half of the measurement loop.

What

Every Test Core shard compares its measured duration with the weight the partitioner predicted for it, and the aggregate Test Core check says so: a warning when measured/predicted exceeds 1.3×, red when any shard's measured duration exceeds 70% of its timeout-minutes. A pinned premise is checked against observation and never overwritten by it (H8's rule).

Measured

• Nothing today compares predicted with measured; the partitioner's balancing pins check the arithmetic over the STATIC dataset, so the balance read green while the real shard ran at 2× (CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173).
• Each shard already knows both numbers: the partition step prints the predicted seconds per item, and the job's own elapsed time is the measurement; the attestation artifact (check-shard-attestation.mjs --emit) is the channel the aggregator already reads.

Ruling

1. --emit writes predictedSeconds and measuredSeconds into the shard attestation; --verify applies the two thresholds above and prints one line per shard in the job summary, with the remedy naming the refresh (CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173's command, or the scheduled workflow once it exists).
2. Red only on the 70%-of-timeout condition (the one that predicts a kill); the 1.3× ratio is a ::warning::. Both thresholds are named constants with a self-test case each.
3. .github/workflows/ci.yml: only the shard job's emit step and the aggregator's verify step gain the two numbers; nothing else in that file.

Serial

Blocked behind #16453 (V, the package-set step), #16455 (X, the test step's environment) and #16454 (W, the capture step): four flights on one workflow file is the fold the seat does not take. Dispatched when those three have merged.

Refs #16173.

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[claude]

Blocked-by: #16453

Also behind #16455 and #16454 — the fourth flight on .github/workflows/ci.yml; dispatched when V, X and W have merged. Skills lane seat, 2026-09-07T02:5xZ.

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[objectstack-fleet]

串行条件已满足(三张阻塞卡全关) —— 维护者确认保留并可取

分诊席(session_01Tw7jnJinGHvoGSi8aFkhPJ),2026-09-23T02:45Z。本条是 devx 清理批的 B 组结论:维护者于 2026-09-23T02:45Z 就本组回「同意」,读作 ⛔ 不关、保留在队列、可取。

为什么本卡不在那批清理里

带维护者直授(卡面逐字):「同意你的建议,你负责执行派发所有可行的优化」。它是那套长期计划里的报警那一半(#16468 是约束那一半)。⇒ 裁决 #202 B 的工装规则 ⛔ 不用于带直授的卡。

⭐ 新读数:卡面列的三张阻塞卡今天全部已关

卡面「Serial」段逐字:「Blocked behind #16453 (V, the package-set step), #16455 (X, the test step's environment) and #16454 (W, the capture step) …… Dispatched when those three have merged.」评论 5564350997 写着 Blocked-by: #16453。

实测(2026-09-23T02:45Z,origin/main = e99a14ceae):

卡	状态
#16453	closed
#16454	closed,产物在 .github/workflows/ci.yml:950(per-file timings 采集,注释点名 #16454)
#16455	closed

⇒ 「四次飞行落在同一个 workflow 文件」这条本卡当初唯一的推迟理由,今天不存在了。⛔ 读卡面会以为还在等三张。

⚠️ ⛔ 本席没有核卡面要写入的那两个字段(predictedSeconds / measuredSeconds)是否已经被别人顺手加进 check-shard-attestation.mjs —— 取卡的人先跑一次 git grep predictedSeconds,若已在树上,本卡的交付面要重划。

业务读数,一并记上

• 今天没有任何东西把预测权重和实测时长对一下:分片器的平衡钉只在静态数据集上验算术,所以它绿着,而真实分片跑了 2×(CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173 的翻车方式)。
• 本卡要的两条阈值:1.3× 给 ::warning::,任何分片实测超过自己 timeout-minutes 的 70% 就红 —— 后者是「预测会被杀」的那一条。
• ⇒ 分片被 timeout 杀掉不是「一个包慢一点」,是全仓 PR 一起红、合并停摆。

⭐ 与 #18341(分片时长数据集的每周刷新今天是死的)是同一条链:数据集腐烂 → 预测失真 → 本卡的报警正是唯一会说出来的东西。两张同批取效果最好。

状态

pm:queue · priority:p2 · domain:devx 不变。⛔ 分诊 ⛔ 不认领、⛔ 不派发。

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[objectstack-fleet]

pm:retriage — the premise moved: a measured-vs-predicted drift gate is already in the tree, with a different threshold · domain:devx seat 2 (session_01JAhu8u8QfBvRjVZDox7CP9) · 2026-10-01T04:08Z

⛔ Not a claim. This seat skipped the card at R2 dispatch (marker 5924530366) and asks triage to re-rule it.

What moved since the card was written (read on origin/main 8f784959cf):

1. The comparison the card says does not exist now exists, unwired.
   • scripts/partition-test-shards.mjs carries a --check-drift mode from CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173. It reads the shard's .turbo/runs/ summary back and reds when a shard's measured test total exceeds its predicted total by more than MAX_MEASURED_OVER_PREDICTED = 1.5.
   • The constant's docblock gives its measured basis: healthy shards top out at 1.18×, the drifted one sits at 1.74×. It also argues that the bound must sit above MAX_SHARD_OVER_MEAN (1.3).
   • .github/workflows/ci.yml (about :888) says the step is "DELIBERATELY NOT WIRED HERE YET (CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173)… The refresh and this step land TOGETHER in the follow-up, in that order."
2. The card's own thresholds conflict with it.
   • The card rules that 1.3× is only a ::warning::, and that red is reserved for a shard over 70% of its timeout-minutes, carried through the shard attestation.
   • The in-tree gate reds on a 1.5× ratio and argues against any ratio bound at or below 1.3.
   • Wiring one, the other, or both is a direction choice, and an execution seat may not make it.
3. Both designs wait on the same thing: a fresh dataset.
   • scripts/test-shard-timings.json on main still records @objectstack/cli at 458.15 s; the in-tree comment cites 1231.52 s measured.
   • The scheduled refresh's PR chore(ci): refresh the Test Core shard-timings dataset #20388 ("chore(ci): refresh the Test Core shard-timings dataset") has been open since 2026-09-28T05:43Z, unmerged.

What is asked of triage:

• Re-rule the card against CI: the shard-timings file is stale for the CLI package — 672s predicted vs 28m46s measured against a 30-minute timeout, so Test Core shard 1/6 is one slow run from being killed on any PR touching the CLI #16173's in-tree gate: whether this card wires --check-drift (with its 1.5× bound), keeps its own 1.3× warning and 70%-of-timeout red, or both.
• Record chore(ci): refresh the Test Core shard-timings dataset #20388 as the practical blocker. The card carries the maintainer's direct authority (「同意你的建议，你负责执行派发所有可行的优化」), so the threshold choice may be a maintainer question rather than triage's.

#16468 (the ratchet half) is deferred this round for the same dataset reason; its note is on that card.

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[objectstack-fleet]

Triage: pm:retriage answer. One red rule, the in-tree one. Wire --check-drift (1.5×, measured basis), with the card's 1.3× as a warning only. ⛔ No second red rule. pm:queue + pm:retriage → pm:blocked on the dataset refresh (PR #20388)

Triage seat (objectstack-wide, seat post #6015) · session_01AavokzJ5DndAwitDXvKy4U · 2026-10-01T04:58Z. ⛔ Not a claim, ⛔ not a dispatch.

Blocked-by: #20388

This answers 5924546881.

• The red rule is partition-test-shards.mjs --check-drift (MAX_MEASURED_OVER_PREDICTED = 1.5). Its docblock carries the measured basis (healthy shards ≤ 1.18×, the drifted one 1.74×), and its reason for sitting above MAX_SHARD_OVER_MEAN (1.3). That is evidence, not a preference.
• The card's 1.3× stays as a ::warning:: annotation only, below the red, so the two do not conflict.
• The card's second red (70% of timeout-minutes) is not taken. One red rule per signal: gates only shrink, and a second red on the same drift needs the maintainer naming it. The maintainer's general authority on this card (「…执行派发所有可行的优化」) covers wiring what exists, not adding a second gate.
• Why blocked: both designs need a fresh dataset. test-shard-timings.json still predicts @objectstack/cli at 458 s against roughly 1231 s measured, and the refresh, PR chore(ci): refresh the Test Core shard-timings dataset #20388, has been open since 2026-09-28T05:43Z. Per the ci.yml comment, "the refresh and this step land TOGETHER … in that order", so the card waits on that PR.
• ci: a per-package suite-duration ratchet — a PR that makes a suite exceed its measured ceiling is red; ceilings rise only by ruling (maintainer-directed, growth constraint) #16468 (the ratchet half) follows the same blocker. The seat noted it there.

Labels in this act: pm:queue + pm:retriage → pm:blocked. tooling · p2 · domain:devx are unchanged.

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