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Driver-based forecast

Driver-based P&L for a fictional CPG company (Northline Consumer Products): volume × price by product line, COGS from unit-cost drivers, OpEx by cost center, plan vs reforecast.

Deliverable: Northline_Driver_Based_Forecast.xlsx

driver-based-forecast preview

build.py only regenerates that workbook. The file a hiring manager should open is the .xlsx.

Business question

If volume or unit cost moves, what happens to the P&L versus plan — and which walk explains it?

How to review this file (8 minutes)

  1. Open 01_Assumptions. Yellow / blue cells are inputs (scenario, prices, unit costs, volumes, OpEx).
  2. Flip Base / Upside / Downside. Confirm only the forecast scales, not the plan.
  3. Read revenue on 02_Revenue_Build, margin on 03_COGS_Build.
  4. Close on 06_Bridge (volume / mix / price / cost / OpEx). Black font is formulas. Amounts in $000s.

Screen-share test

Cut volume ~10% on 01_Assumptions and leave price and unit cost fixed. Revenue and COGS volume walks should move; price and rate walks should stay near zero. Then raise material cost per case and confirm the COGS cost walk absorbs it.

Tabs

Tab Role
00_Cover Purpose and how to use
01_Assumptions Volume, price, cost/unit, OpEx rates, scenario
02_Revenue_Build Volume × price, mix, plan vs forecast
03_COGS_Build Volume × CPU, gross margin
04_OpEx Selling, marketing, distribution, G&A, R&D
05_P&L_Forecast 12-month P&L, FY plan vs forecast
06_Bridge Plan vs forecast walks
07_Data_Dictionary Field definitions

Excel formulas only. No VBA, no live ERP or demand-planning feed, no employer data. This is the driver-based P&L / reforecast slice, not a three-statement model.

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Driver-based P&L forecast: volume × price, COGS drivers, OpEx by cost center, plan vs reforecast. Sample Excel file.

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