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Climate-augmented Lee–Carter/CBD mortality framework for Italy, France, Germany & the Netherlands. Temperature elasticity 0.028–0.051/°C; NGFS scenarios to 2050; Solvency II case study on a €2bn portfolio (+46% SCR under +3°C).
Climate-augmented mortality framework for life insurance — Lee-Carter/CBD models, NGFS scenarios, and Solvency II impacts across Italy, France, Germany & NL