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utosrad/README.md
Umar Darsot, software engineer

I build things that price uncertainty and things that ship.

Selected work
weather-edge Prices Polymarket temperature contracts. The interesting part is not the model, it is that the model refuses to quote until its forecast error distribution has been fitted against real data. A fixed sigma manufactures an edge that is not there.
chopshop Splits 3D models too big for the print bed into printable chunks with mating connectors. Mesh booleans, dovetail geometry, and a test suite that checks volumes against closed-form integrals rather than golden files.
delay-contagion Applies beta to flight delays. A late aircraft propagates lateness through every leg it flies that day, so some flights carry far more systemic risk than their own delay suggests. First place, I4 Hackathon 2026.
whop-tasks-mvp Task marketplace where an LLM evaluates submitted proof against explicit requirements and returns a structured verdict the product acts on. Built as the Whop interview task.
market-radar Scheduled intelligence digest. Watches a product and its competitors across Reddit, X, forums and news, runs two parallel LLM analysis passes, and mails a two-column brief. Deployed on Canadian payments.
ESG-Investment-Screener Screens 315 S&P 500 companies by ESG risk, sector and market cap. Live.

Stack

Ruby on Rails · Swift / UIKit · TypeScript / Next.js · Python · Postgres · gRPC and WebSockets · Stripe · Privy · Hyperliquid · Docker

Bachelor of Mathematics, Financial Analysis and Risk Management (Co-op), University of Waterloo.

Elsewhere

darsot.ca · LinkedIn · udarsot@gmail.com

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  1. chopshop chopshop Public

    Splits 3D models too big for the print bed into printable chunks with dovetail joints, and estimates time and filament per piece. FastAPI + trimesh + React.

    Python 1

  2. delay-contagion delay-contagion Public

    Ranks Toronto Pearson flights by how much lateness they propagate downstream, not by how late they are. XGBoost delay model, delay-beta score, MILP gate reassignment, D3 contagion graph. Includes t…

    HTML

  3. Number-Recognizer Number-Recognizer Public

    MNIST digit classifier that measures the preprocessing gap: same model, 26.81% naive vs 95.69% with MNIST-style crop, scale and centre-of-mass centring on a synthetic distorted set

    Python

  4. market-radar market-radar Public

    Scheduled intelligence digest. Scans Reddit, X, forums and news on a topic and its competitors, runs two parallel LLM analysis passes, and mails a two-column brief. Deployed on Canadian payments.

    Python 1

  5. weather-edge weather-edge Public

    Fair-value pricing and fractional Kelly sizing for Polymarket temperature markets. Sigma is calibrated against realised forecast error, not assumed.

    Python

  6. ufc-fight-model ufc-fight-model Public

    UFC fight-outcome model benchmarked against the closing betting line, not against 50%. It matches the market and does not beat it.

    Python