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🎯 ValuationCheck

AI-powered valuation calculator for European AI startups


📌 What is this?

ValuationCheck is a web app that estimates the valuation range of a European AI startup based on its stage, AI subdomain, country, ARR, and growth rate — benchmarked against 51 real funding rounds from 2020 to 2025.

Tell it what kind of startup you're building. It tells you what the European market is paying for ventures like yours right now, shows you the closest comparable deals, and explains exactly how the number was calculated.

💡 Sister project: the underlying dataset comes from my prior analysis, eu-ai-funding-analysis. This app turns that dataset into an interactive tool founders can actually use.

✨ What it does

  • 📊 Three-point valuation (low / most likely / high) based on ARR multiples + market adjustments
  • 🌍 Country premium model — France slightly leads (Mistral effect), UK and Germany at parity, smaller ecosystems at a discount
  • 🤖 Subdomain pricing — Foundation Models and AI Agents command the highest multiples; HR-tech and Process Automation the lowest
  • 🚀 Growth premium — startups growing 100%+ YoY trade at elevated multiples
  • 📍 Interactive comparables map — see your startup positioned against the 51 real deals
  • 🔍 Top 8 closest comparables ranked by similarity (stage + subdomain + country match)
  • 📐 Full methodology explained transparently — no black box

🎯 Who it's for

Audience Use case
Founders preparing for a fundraise Sanity-check the valuation you plan to ask for
Angel investors & emerging VCs Quick comparable analysis before issuing a term sheet
Business students studying venture capital See how multiples actually work in practice
Journalists & analysts covering EU tech Reference real European AI deal benchmarks

🛠 Tech stack

  • Python 3.11 — runtime
  • Streamlit — web framework (turns Python scripts into web apps with zero HTML/JS)
  • pandas — data wrangling
  • plotly — interactive scatter plots
  • Streamlit Community Cloud — free hosting

▶️ How to run

Option 1 — Use the live demo (recommended for non-developers)

👉 Open the live app

Option 2 — Run locally

git clone https://github.com/vlad-is-dev/valuation-check.git
cd valuation-check
python3 -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate          # Windows: .venv\Scripts\activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
streamlit run app.py

The app opens automatically at http://localhost:8501.

For VS Code + Streamlit Cloud deployment instructions step-by-step: SETUP.md.

🧠 How the valuation works (in 30 seconds)

The model uses the classic revenue-multiple approach from venture capital, then applies three adjustment factors based on observed European deals:

Estimated valuation = ARR × Stage multiple × Growth factor × Subdomain factor × Country factor
  • Stage multiple (15× for Growth, up to 40× for Series A) sets the base range
  • Growth factor (×0.8 to ×1.5) rewards fast-growing startups
  • Subdomain factor (×0.85 to ×1.5) reflects current investor appetite
  • Country factor (×0.75 to ×1.05) reflects ecosystem depth

Full methodology, sources, and caveats are in the app's "📐 How this works" section.

⚠️ Caveats

This tool is not financial advice. It is educational and exploratory. Real funding rounds depend on dozens of factors no simple formula can capture: founder track record, team strength, competitive landscape, market timing, unit economics beyond ARR, strategic value to specific acquirers, and pure negotiation dynamics.

Treat the output as a directional sanity check — useful for "am I roughly in the right ballpark?", not for "this is what my company is worth."

📂 Project structure

valuation-check/
├── README.md              ← you are here
├── SETUP.md               ← step-by-step setup & deployment guide
├── app.py                 ← the Streamlit application
├── requirements.txt       ← Python dependencies
├── LICENSE                ← MIT
├── .gitignore
└── data/
    └── comparables.csv    ← 51 European AI funding rounds 2020–2025

👤 Author

Vladislav Yakunin IBA student @ European University Viadrina · 🥉 Berlin AI Hackathon 2026 · Aspire Institute Fellow 2026

📜 License

MIT — fork it, ship it, build on it. Citation back is appreciated but not required.


Built with ❤️ in Frankfurt (Oder). If you spot a missing comparable, a mispriced multiple, or want to extend the model — open an issue or PR.

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AI-powered valuation calculator for European AI startups

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