Add formulae for advancement and for double plays

formulas.py

@@ -637,3 +637,109 @@ def get_triple_threshold(
             return float("nan")
         opw_pow = pitcher_opw**1.5
         return 0.042 + 0.2 * batter_gf - 0.056 * opw_pow - 0.05 * fielder_chase + 0.1 * ballpark_sum
+
+def get_double_play_threshold(
+    batter: PlayerData,
+    pitcher: PlayerData,
+    fielder: PlayerData,
+    batting_team: TeamData,
+    pitching_team: TeamData,
+    stadium: StadiumData,
+    meta: StatRelevantData,
+):
+    pitcher_vibes = pitcher.vibes(meta.day)
+    fielder_vibes = fielder.vibes(meta.day)
+
+    hype = stadium.hype * (1 if meta.top_of_inning else -1)
+
+    # no vibes, yes multipliers
+    batter_trag = batter.multiplied(
+        "tragicness", 1 / get_multiplier(batter, batting_team, "batter", "tragicness", meta, stadium)
+    )
+    inv_batter_trag = 1 - batter_trag
+
+    pitcher_shakes = pitcher.multiplied(
+        "shakespearianism", get_multiplier(pitcher, pitching_team, "pitcher", "shakespearianism", meta, stadium)
+    )
+    pitcher_shakes = (pitcher_shakes + 0.2 * hype) * (1 + 0.2 * pitcher_vibes)
+
+    fielder_tenac = fielder.multiplied(
+        "tenaciousness", get_multiplier(fielder, pitching_team, "fielder", "tenaciousness", meta, stadium)
+    )
+    fielder_tenac = (fielder_tenac + 0.2 * hype) * (1 + 0.2 * fielder_vibes)
+
+    elong = stadium.elongation - 0.5
+
+    return -0.05 + 0.4 * pitcher_shakes - 0.18 * inv_batter_trag + 0.1 * fielder_tenac - 0.16 * elong
+
+
+def get_advance_on_hit_threshold(
+    runner: PlayerData,
+    fielder: PlayerData,
+    pitching_team: TeamData,
+    stadium: StadiumData,
+    meta: StatRelevantData,
+):
+    # no vibes
+    fielder_tenac = fielder.multiplied(
+        "tenaciousness", get_multiplier(fielder, pitching_team, "fielder", "tenaciousness", meta, stadium)
+    )
+
+    # No mods or vibes here -- not sure if I need to use .multiplied at all
+    runner_cont = runner.multiplied("continuation", 1.0)
+
+    threshold = 0.7 - fielder_tenac + 0.6 * runner_cont
+    return max(min(threshold, 0.95), 0.01)
+
+def get_advance_on_ground_out_threshold(
+    runner: PlayerData,
+    fielder: PlayerData,
+    pitching_team: TeamData,
+    stadium: StadiumData,
+    meta: StatRelevantData,
+):
+    runner_vibes = runner.vibes(meta.day)
+    fielder_vibes = fielder.vibes(meta.day)
+
+    # no mods
+    runner_ind = runner.multiplied("indulgence", 1.0) * (1 + 0.2 * runner_vibes)
+
+    fielder_tenac = fielder.multiplied(
+        "tenaciousness", get_multiplier(fielder, pitching_team, "fielder", "tenaciousness", meta, stadium)
+    ) * (1 + 0.2 * fielder_vibes)
+
+    elong = stadium.elongation - 0.5
+    incon = stadium.inconvenience - 0.5
+
+    return 0.5 + 0.35 * runner_ind - 0.1 * fielder_tenac - 0.1 * elong - 0.1 * incon
+
+
+def get_advance_on_flyout_threshold(
+    advancing_from: int,
+    runner: PlayerData,
+    batting_team: TeamData,
+    stadium: StadiumData,
+    meta: StatRelevantData,
+):
+    runner_vibes = runner.vibes(meta.day)
+
+    runner_ind = runner.multiplied(
+        "indulgence", get_multiplier(runner, batting_team, "batter", "indulgence", meta, stadium)
+    )
+    runner_ind = runner_ind * (1 + 0.2 * runner_vibes)
+    runner_ind_sq = runner_ind ** 2
+    runner_ind_p4 = runner_ind ** 4
+
+    elong = stadium.elongation - 0.5
+    inconv = stadium.inconvenience - 0.5
+    park_factor = 0.10 * elong + 0.10 * inconv
+
+    if advancing_from == 0:
+        return -0.085 + 0.36 * runner_ind - 0.38 * runner_ind_sq + 0.24 * runner_ind_p4 - park_factor
+    elif advancing_from == 1:
+        return 0.045 + 0.065 * runner_ind + 0.30 * runner_ind_sq - park_factor
+    elif advancing_from == 2:
+        return 0.45 + 0.35 * runner_ind - park_factor
+    else:
+        raise RuntimeError(f"Unexpected advancing-from base {advancing_from} (expected 0, 1, or 2).")
+

pyproject.toml

@@ -1,3 +1,12 @@
+[project]
+name = "resim"
+version = "0.0.1"
+dependencies = [
+    "dataclasses-json>=0.6.7",
+    "requests>=2.34.2",
+    "tqdm>=4.70.0",
+]
+
 [tool.black]
 line-length = 120
 extend-exclude = '\.ipynb$'

resim.py

@@ -37,6 +37,10 @@
     get_out_threshold,
     get_double_threshold,
     get_triple_threshold,
+    get_advance_on_hit_threshold,
+    get_advance_on_ground_out_threshold,
+    get_double_play_threshold,
+    get_advance_on_flyout_threshold,
 )
 from item_gen import ItemRollType, roll_item
 
@@ -1436,7 +1440,9 @@ def handle_batter_reverb(self):
                 self.roll("psychic bug reverb")
 
     def handle_mild(self):
-        mild_roll = self.roll("mild")
+        threshold = 0.0005 + 0.004 * self.stadium.mysticism
+
+        mild_roll = self.roll("mild", threshold=threshold, passed=self.ty == EventType.MILD_PITCH)
         if self.ty == EventType.MILD_PITCH:
             # skipping mild proc
 
@@ -2036,9 +2042,16 @@ def did_advance(base, runner_id):
                     is_next_free = True
 
                 roll_outcome = did_advance(base, runner_id)
+                advance_threshold = get_advance_on_flyout_threshold(
+                    base,
+                    runner,
+                    self.batting_team,
+                    self.stadium,
+                    self.get_stat_meta(),
+                )
 
                 if is_next_free:
-                    adv_roll = self.roll(f"adv? {base}/{runner.name} ({roll_outcome})")
+                    adv_roll = self.roll(f"adv? {base}/{runner.name} ({roll_outcome})", threshold=advance_threshold, passed=roll_outcome)
                     self.log_roll(
                         Csv.FLYOUT, f"advance_{base}", adv_roll, roll_outcome, fielder=fielder, relevant_runner=runner
                     )
@@ -2059,7 +2072,13 @@ def did_advance(base, runner_id):
         elif self.ty == EventType.GROUND_OUT:
             if len(self.update["basesOccupied"]) > 0:
                 # roll needs batter tragicness, fielder tenaciousness, pitcher shakespearianism
-                dp_roll = self.roll("dp?")
+                dp_threshold = get_double_play_threshold(
+                    self.batter, self.pitcher, fielder, self.batting_team, self.pitching_team, self.stadium, self.get_stat_meta()
+                )
+
+                is_dp = "into a double play!" in self.desc
+
+                dp_roll = self.roll("dp?", threshold=dp_threshold, passed=is_dp)
                 if self.batter.undefined():
                     # tragicness?
                     # the control flow is really weird here
@@ -2071,8 +2090,6 @@ def did_advance(base, runner_id):
                     if fielder.undefined():
                         self.roll("undefined (dp fielder)")
                         pass
-
-                    is_dp = "into a double play!" in self.desc
                     is_fc = "on fielder's choice" in self.desc
                     self.log_roll(Csv.GROUNDOUT_FORMULAS, "DP", dp_roll, is_dp, fielder=fielder)
 
@@ -2166,7 +2183,11 @@ def did_advance(base, runner_id):
                     roll_outcome = did_advance(base, runner_id) if not was_forced else None
 
                 # needs... fielder tenaciousness and runner indulgence?
-                adv_roll = self.roll(f"adv? {base}/{runner.name} ({roll_outcome})")
+                adv_roll = self.roll(
+                    f"adv? {base}/{runner.name} ({roll_outcome})",
+                    threshold=get_advance_on_ground_out_threshold(runner, fielder, self.pitching_team, self.stadium, self.get_stat_meta()),
+                    passed=roll_outcome,
+                )
                 if self.batter.undefined() and base == base_before_home: # sac?
                     # self.roll("undefined (advance batter)")
                     pass
@@ -2212,17 +2233,25 @@ def handle_hit_advances(self, bases_hit, defender_roll):
         for runner_id, base, roll_outcome in calculate_advances(
             bases_before, bases_after, bases_hit, base_before_home + 1
         ):
+            runner = self.data.get_player(runner_id)
+            fielder = self.get_fielder_for_roll(defender_roll)
+
+            advance_threshold = get_advance_on_hit_threshold(
+                runner,
+                fielder,
+                self.pitching_team,
+                self.stadium,
+                self.get_stat_meta(),
+            )
             # work around missing data in next_update
             if self.event["created"] == "2021-04-14T15:11:04.159Z":
                 roll_outcome = False
-            roll = self.roll(f"adv ({base}, {roll_outcome}")
-            runner = self.data.get_player(runner_id)
+            roll = self.roll(f"adv ({base}, {roll_outcome}", passed=roll_outcome, threshold=advance_threshold)
 
             if runner.undefined():
                 self.roll("undefined (runner adv?)")
                 pass
 
-            fielder = self.get_fielder_for_roll(defender_roll)
             if fielder.undefined():
                 self.roll("undefined (runner adv? from fielder)")
 
@@ -3758,16 +3787,22 @@ def handle_consumers(self):
                     self.log_roll(Csv.CONSUMERS, "Miss", attack_roll, False, attacked_team=team)
 
     def handle_party(self):
+        party_threshold = 0.0055 if self.season < 20 else 0.00525
+
         if self.season == 23 and "SIM_PARTY_TIME" not in self.data.sim["attr"]:
             return        
         if self.season != 16 or self.day >= 85:
             # lol. turns out it just rolls party all the time and throws out the roll if the team isn't partying
-            party_roll = self.roll("party time")
+
+            # If this event is a Party we know this roll must have passed, but if it's not a Party we don't know
+            # anything, since there's a possibility that the roll still passed but the team wasn't in party time
+            passed = None
+            if self.ty == EventType.PARTY:
+                passed = True
+            party_roll = self.roll("party time", threshold=party_threshold, passed=passed)
         else:
             party_roll = 1
 
-        party_threshold = 0.0055 if self.season < 20 else 0.00525
-
         if self.ty == EventType.PARTY:
             self.log_roll(Csv.PARTY, "Party", party_roll, True)
             team_roll = self.roll("target team")  # <0.5 for home, >0.5 for away
@@ -4072,7 +4107,7 @@ def handle_grind_rail(self):
 
                 self.roll("trick 1 name")
 
-                m = re.search("They do a .*? \(([0-9]+)\)", self.desc)
+                m = re.search(r"They do a .*? \(([0-9]+)\)", self.desc)
                 expected_score_1 = int(m.group(1))
                 pro_factor = 2 if "Pro Skater" in self.desc else 1
                 self.print(f"(press: {runner.pressurization}, cinn: {runner.cinnamon})")
@@ -4110,7 +4145,7 @@ def handle_grind_rail(self):
 
                 if "lose their balance and bail!" not in self.desc:
                     self.roll("trick 2 name")
-                    m = re.search("They(?: land|'re tagged out doing) a .*? \(([0-9]+)\)", self.desc)
+                    m = re.search(r"They(?: land|'re tagged out doing) a .*? \(([0-9]+)\)", self.desc)
                     expected_score_2 = int(m.group(1))
                     lo2 = runner.pressurization * 500
                     hi2 = runner.cinnamon * 3000 + 1000
@@ -4175,18 +4210,18 @@ def handle_steal(self):
             ):
                 runner = self.data.get_player(self.update["baseRunners"][i])
 
-                steal_roll = self.roll(f"steal ({base})")
+                was_success = self.ty == EventType.STOLEN_BASE and (
+                    base + 1 == base_stolen
+                    or base_stolen == Base.FIFTH
+                    and bool(filter(lambda i: i.name == "The Fifth Base", runner.items))
+                )
+
+                steal_roll = self.roll(f"steal ({base})", passed=was_success)
                 if steal_fielder.undefined():
                     self.roll("undefined (fielder steal)")
                 if runner.undefined():
                     self.roll(f"undefined (runner steal {base})")
                     self.roll(f"undefined (runner steal {base})")
-
-                was_success = self.ty == EventType.STOLEN_BASE and (
-                    base + 1 == base_stolen
-                    or base_stolen == Base.FIFTH
-                    and filter(lambda i: i.name == "The Fifth Base", runner.items)
-                )
                 self.log_roll(
                     Csv.STEAL_ATTEMPT,
                     f"StealAttempt{base}",
@@ -4204,9 +4239,9 @@ def handle_steal(self):
                     if runner.undefined():
                         self.roll("undefined (steal success runner)")
 
-                    success_roll = self.roll("steal success")
                     was_caught = "caught stealing" in self.desc
 
+                    success_roll = self.roll("steal success", passed=not was_caught)
                     self.log_roll(
                         Csv.STEAL_SUCCESS,
                         f"StealSuccess{base}",
@@ -4237,7 +4272,7 @@ def handle_steal(self):
                 break
 
     def create_item(self, event, roll_type: ItemRollType, prev_event):
-        match = re.search("(?:gained|The Winner gets) (.+?)( and ditched| and dropped|\.?$)", self.desc)
+        match = re.search(r"(?:gained|The Winner gets) (.+?)( and ditched| and dropped|\.?$)", self.desc)
 
         expected_item_name = match.group(1) if match else ""
         if roll_type == ItemRollType.PRIZE: