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yannikpaul/README.md

Hi, I'm Yannik Paul 👋

I'm a Machine Learning & Data Science researcher and research software developer at the German Sport University Cologne. My work focuses on probabilistic modeling, end-to-end machine learning, and analytical software for complex real-world data.

What I work on

  • Machine Learning & Data Science: probabilistic classification, gradient boosting, Bayesian modeling, feature engineering, calibration, evaluation, and interpretation
  • Research Software: Python, JavaScript/Vue.js, Git, Docker, and web-based analytical tools
  • Applied Analytics: translating research questions and real-world problems into robust models and usable decision-support workflows

Current projects

Beyond Outcome Bias
A probabilistic machine-learning framework for risk-aware soccer action evaluation. It introduces xSuccess to model contextual action-completion probability and integrates it into an adjusted VAEP formulation to reduce outcome bias.

xImpact
A multi-level probabilistic framework that links action-level evaluation to match-level objectives using xSuccess, risk-adjusted VAEP, and Bayesian in-game win probabilities.

SportVid
A DFG-funded platform for AI-supported video and data analysis in sport. I lead frontend development and contribute to technical integrations, infrastructure, and deployment-related work.

Selected research

  • Expected Impact on Match Outcome: A multi-level probabilistic framework for context-sensitive soccer action evaluation
  • Beyond Outcome Bias: Incorporating action completion probability and risk-return into soccer evaluation models — MLSA 2025 / Springer, 2026
  • The Importance of Positional Placement: Investigating the influence of different infield positions of floater players in small-sided soccer games — International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 2025

Tech

Python · pandas · NumPy · scikit-learn · XGBoost · PyMC · JavaScript · Vue.js · Docker · Git

Links

LinkedIn · ORCID

Pinned Loading

  1. xImpact xImpact Public

    Multi-level probabilistic framework linking risk-adjusted soccer action values to match-outcome context.

    Python

  2. beyond-outcome-bias beyond-outcome-bias Public

    Probabilistic ML framework for risk-aware soccer action evaluation using xSuccess and adjusted VAEP.

    Python

  3. football-shot-analysis football-shot-analysis Public

    Reproducible football analytics case study comparing shot profiles of Bayern Munich and Manchester City using Python, R, xG and spatial visualizations.

    Python

  4. expected-points-performance-monitoring expected-points-performance-monitoring Public

    Reproducible decision-support workflow for monitoring actual versus expected football performance using probabilistic expected-points modeling.

    Python