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Fix growth estimation for early-year calculations using weighted average #115

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Fix growth estimation for early-year calculations using weighted average #115

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78 changes: 72 additions & 6 deletions pkg/display/sections/growth_estimates.go
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -44,11 +44,77 @@ func CalculateNewEstimate(yearlyStats map[int]models.GrowthStatistics, currentYe

var predictedCurrentYear models.GrowthStatistics

// If less than 2 months (60 days) into the year, use previous year data
// If less than 2 months (60 days) into the year, use weighted average of recent years' growth
if daysPassed < 60 {
// Simply use the previous year of the latest fetch date
predictedCurrentYear = previousStats
predictedCurrentYear.Year = currentYear
// Get historical years for weighted average calculation
twoYearsAgoStats, twoYearsAgoExists := yearlyStats[currentYear-2]
threeYearsAgoStats, threeYearsAgoExists := yearlyStats[currentYear-3]
fourYearsAgoStats, fourYearsAgoExists := yearlyStats[currentYear-4]

var weightedAuthorsDelta, weightedCommitsDelta float64
var weightedCompressedDelta, weightedUncompressedDelta float64

if twoYearsAgoExists && threeYearsAgoExists && fourYearsAgoExists {
// Full 3-year weighted average: 50% year-1, 30% year-2, 20% year-3
// Year-1 delta: previousStats - twoYearsAgoStats (e.g., 2025-2024)
// Year-2 delta: twoYearsAgoStats - threeYearsAgoStats (e.g., 2024-2023)
// Year-3 delta: threeYearsAgoStats - fourYearsAgoStats (e.g., 2023-2022)
year1AuthorsDelta := float64(previousStats.Authors - twoYearsAgoStats.Authors)
year1CommitsDelta := float64(previousStats.Commits - twoYearsAgoStats.Commits)
year1CompressedDelta := float64(previousStats.Compressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
year1UncompressedDelta := float64(previousStats.Uncompressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)

year2AuthorsDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Authors - threeYearsAgoStats.Authors)
year2CommitsDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Commits - threeYearsAgoStats.Commits)
year2CompressedDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Compressed - threeYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
year2UncompressedDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed - threeYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)

year3AuthorsDelta := float64(threeYearsAgoStats.Authors - fourYearsAgoStats.Authors)
year3CommitsDelta := float64(threeYearsAgoStats.Commits - fourYearsAgoStats.Commits)
year3CompressedDelta := float64(threeYearsAgoStats.Compressed - fourYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
year3UncompressedDelta := float64(threeYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed - fourYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)

weightedAuthorsDelta = 0.5*year1AuthorsDelta + 0.3*year2AuthorsDelta + 0.2*year3AuthorsDelta
weightedCommitsDelta = 0.5*year1CommitsDelta + 0.3*year2CommitsDelta + 0.2*year3CommitsDelta
weightedCompressedDelta = 0.5*year1CompressedDelta + 0.3*year2CompressedDelta + 0.2*year3CompressedDelta
weightedUncompressedDelta = 0.5*year1UncompressedDelta + 0.3*year2UncompressedDelta + 0.2*year3UncompressedDelta
} else if twoYearsAgoExists && threeYearsAgoExists {
// 2-year weighted average: 60% year-1, 40% year-2
year1AuthorsDelta := float64(previousStats.Authors - twoYearsAgoStats.Authors)
year1CommitsDelta := float64(previousStats.Commits - twoYearsAgoStats.Commits)
year1CompressedDelta := float64(previousStats.Compressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
year1UncompressedDelta := float64(previousStats.Uncompressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)

year2AuthorsDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Authors - threeYearsAgoStats.Authors)
year2CommitsDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Commits - threeYearsAgoStats.Commits)
year2CompressedDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Compressed - threeYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
year2UncompressedDelta := float64(twoYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed - threeYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)

weightedAuthorsDelta = 0.6*year1AuthorsDelta + 0.4*year2AuthorsDelta
weightedCommitsDelta = 0.6*year1CommitsDelta + 0.4*year2CommitsDelta
weightedCompressedDelta = 0.6*year1CompressedDelta + 0.4*year2CompressedDelta
weightedUncompressedDelta = 0.6*year1UncompressedDelta + 0.4*year2UncompressedDelta
} else if twoYearsAgoExists {
// Single year delta (original behavior)
weightedAuthorsDelta = float64(previousStats.Authors - twoYearsAgoStats.Authors)
weightedCommitsDelta = float64(previousStats.Commits - twoYearsAgoStats.Commits)
weightedCompressedDelta = float64(previousStats.Compressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Compressed)
weightedUncompressedDelta = float64(previousStats.Uncompressed - twoYearsAgoStats.Uncompressed)
} else {
// Fallback: use previous year totals if insufficient history
predictedCurrentYear = previousStats
predictedCurrentYear.Year = currentYear
estimates = append(estimates, predictedCurrentYear)
return estimates
}

predictedCurrentYear = models.GrowthStatistics{
Year: currentYear,
Authors: previousStats.Authors + int(weightedAuthorsDelta),
Commits: previousStats.Commits + int(weightedCommitsDelta),
Compressed: previousStats.Compressed + int64(weightedCompressedDelta),
Uncompressed: previousStats.Uncompressed + int64(weightedUncompressedDelta),
}
} else {
// If 2+ months into the year, predict full year by extrapolating current progress
commitsPerDay := float64(currentCommitsDelta) / float64(daysPassed)
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -267,8 +333,8 @@ func DisplayUnifiedGrowth(yearlyStatistics map[int]models.GrowthStatistics, repo
fmt.Printf("^ Current totals as of Git directory's last modified: %s\n", lastModified[:16])
}
if estimationYears > 0 {
fmt.Println("~ Estimated growth for current year based on year to date deltas (Δ) extrapolated to full year")
fmt.Println("* Estimated growth based on current year's estimated delta percentages (Δ%)")
fmt.Println("~ Estimated growth for current year (weighted average of recent years' deltas (Δ), or YTD extrapolation if >60 days)")
fmt.Println("* Estimated future growth based on current year's estimated delta (Δ)")
} else {
fmt.Println("Growth estimation unavailable: Requires at least 2 years of commit history")
}
Expand Down
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