weather-derivatives

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Jupyter notebooks and learning notes of weather derivatives

Fair-value pricing and fractional Kelly sizing for Polymarket temperature markets. Sigma is calibrated against realised forecast error, not assumed.

Perpetual futures on real-world data. Trade the magnitude, not the yes/no. Weather is the first market, on Solana.

anchor prediction-markets solana defi perpetuals weather-derivatives

A production-grade weather event prediction exchange.

python go redis h3 postgis prediction-markets lmsr automated-market-maker weather-derivatives cftc-data event-contracts exchange-engine

Independent research project exploring temperature modeling for weather derivatives and commodity trading.

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